[討論] What's Wrong with Big Papi?
http://tinyurl.com/nuybde
What's Wrong with Big Papi?
June 5, 2009
Much has been made of David Ortiz's slow start in 2009. The 33-year-old went
1-for-4 on Wednesday, raising his average to .187. Ortiz's power has also
disappeared, with just one home run this year after hitting 23 in only 109
games last year, 35 in 2007 along with a .332 batting average, and a
league-leading 54 in 2006.
Is this just a slow start, or is Big Papi on his last legs? The biggest
indication of his problem is his strikeout rate. In 2007 and 2008 Ortiz had a
strikeout every five-and-a-half at-bats. This year he's well under one
strikeout per four at-bats:
David Ortiz—Strikeout rate
Season At-bats Strikeouts AB/K
2007 549 103 5.3
2008 416 74 5.6
2009 187 51 3.7
Let’s also take a look at his batted ball distribution by type:
David Ortiz—Distribution of Batted Balls
Season Balls in Play Grounders Liners Fliners Flies
2007 449 37% 11% 14% 37%
2008 346 36% 8% 18% 37%
2009 140 26% 9% 27% 38%
Ortiz's flyball rate is nearly identical, and his line drive rate is within his
normal range as well. He is hitting 10% fewer groundballs than normal, and
those hits are becoming fliners (the classification between line drives and
flyballs).
Ordinarily, this would be a good sign. Balls in the air go for hits far more
often than groundballs, especially for a power hitter like Ortiz, and they have
the potential to turn into extra-base hits. A look at the average distance of
each batted ball type tells us a different story:
David Ortiz—Average Distance (feet)
Season Liners Fliners Flies
2007 205 302 310
2008 214 296 275
2009 158 278 261
Ortiz is hitting more balls in the air, but if distance is any indication, he's
not hitting them nearly as hard. His liners, fliners, and flies aren't carrying
as much as they used to.
If Big Papi doesn't start hitting the ball more frequently, and when he does
hit it, hit it harder, he will never again be the force that twice led Boston
to World Series titles.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 118.160.69.19
→
06/08 22:29, , 1F
06/08 22:29, 1F
→
06/08 22:36, , 2F
06/08 22:36, 2F
推
06/08 23:45, , 3F
06/08 23:45, 3F
推
06/09 00:42, , 4F
06/09 00:42, 4F
推
06/09 11:57, , 5F
06/09 11:57, 5F
推
06/09 13:05, , 6F
06/09 13:05, 6F
→
06/09 13:06, , 7F
06/09 13:06, 7F