[情報] Teixeira’s Potential Impact on the Red Sox

看板RedSox作者Belladonaa時間15年前 (2008/12/20 12:15)推噓13(13推 0噓 19→)

留言32則, 14人參與討論串1/1

I’ve already stated my support for the Red Sox going after Mark Teixeira based mainly on the fact that Boston has a bunch payroll room and he’s one of the top players on the market. But with Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis, and David Ortiz already on the team, it’s hard to figure how Teixeira will make sense financially. With that question in mind, I took a quick and dirty look at one possible scenario (the most likely one in my mind)--Teixeira is being brought in to replace Mike Lowell. Here’s what I found. Without, Teixeira, Youkilis would presumably play 1B and assuming he’s healthy, Lowell would play 3B. Their values break down like this (values from Fangraphs, projections on offense are an average of Bill James and Marcel, defense is Fangraphs’ UZR with a 3/2/1 + 2 parts regression to the mean, adjusted for playing time and aging a bit too, positional adjustments are Tango’s): Youk at 1B: +20 wRAA, +4 UZR, - 12.5 positional adjustment, +20 (above replacement level) = 31.5 runs above replacement Lowell at 3B (~130 g): +2.6 wRAA, +7 UZR, +2 positional adjustment, +17 (above replacement level) = 28.6 runs above replacement Total: ~60 Runs above replacement Now here’s now it looks with Tex coming in to play 1B and Youk moving to 3B: Teixeira at 1B: +33 wRAA, +1 UZR, - 12.5 positional adjustment, +20 (above replacement level) = 41.5 runs above replacement Youk at 3B: +20 wRAA, +9 UZR, +2.5 positional adjustment, +20 (above replacement level) = 51.5 runs above replacement Total: ~93 Runs above replacement Total improvement: ~33 runs Looking at these numbers, the Red Sox gain a good chunk by replacing Lowell with a superior player in Teixeira. But that’s not the only effect. They also magically turn Youkilis from a very good player into a great one--another Mark Teixeira, only better! I guess great players really do make others around them better! Much of this improvement stems from the positional adjustment of 15 runs, but if you look at the bolded #s, UZR also grades Youkilis better as a 3B than as a 1B, even though you’d normally expect the opposite. The 3B numbers are based on only 450 innings over the past 3 years, an extremely small sample, but it should be noted that in almost 1100 career innings at 3B, Youk is at +13.9/150 UZR. Assuming that the Youkilis numbers are correct, the Red Sox gain about 3.3 wins in 2009 by adding Teixeira (and presumably similar amounts in the years that follow as he, Lowell, and Youkilis age). The $20 mil/year that Tex is expected to receive is a steep price for 3.3 wins in a market where wins usually go for ~$4.6 mil each. But--there are a few “buts” to consider. 1) The Red Sox have room in their payroll and there aren’t a ton of other areas in which they could improve. Paying $6 mil/win is not a bad result for them. 2) There’s a strong possibility that Lowell’s injury knocks a good chunk off his expected production, particularly on defense. That could easily make Tex a 4 win improvement on this team. 3) If Lowell is healthy, he could be traded, with the Red Sox not having to pay is full salary. If they even unload half of his salary, that’s $6 mil/year, making the cost of replacing him with Teixeira, closer to $14 mi/year for 3.3 wins--a very reasonable $4.2 mil/win. All of these add up to the Teixeira deal making a good bit of sense for the Red Sox, whether Mike Lowell is healthy or injured. He’s an extremely good player, and although it seems weird to be paying a 1B that much, he appears to be worth it. PS. Happy holidays and please nobody tell Youkilis how valuable he is as a 3B. I’d like him to sign a cheap 3-4 year deal with the Sox. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.160.70.127

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