[新聞] The Ultimate Fantasy Draft
這是 BP Nate Silver 的文章，我把網址附在底下。
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7975
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7976
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我簡單翻譯一下前言及規則的部分。
Welcome, ladies and gents, to the third annual Baseball Prospectus Ultimate
Fantasy Draft. What, you are probably wondering, is the Baseball Prospectus
Ultimate Fantasy Draft? It is the answer to this question: If you were
starting a baseball team from scratch, which players would you want to build
your team around? That is, which players would you take—and in what order
would you take them—if your goal was to win as many championships as
possible over the medium-to-long-term?
假如你想組一支冠軍球隊的話，你會選擇哪些球員呢？
The specific ground rules of the UFD are as follows:
下面是規則。
。All players playing baseball in any professional league are eligible,
including players in the minor leagues and players in professional leagues
outside of North America.
只要是職業棒球選手都有資格被選。
。All present contracts are wiped out. In other words, price does not matter.
不考慮現在的合約。
。Major league service time is also wiped out—all players are treated as
rookies. However, the structure of MLB's free agency rules is left intact.
What this means is that you have six years of major league service time at
your disposal before your player becomes a free agent. In most cases, this
simply means that you'll get the player's 2008 through 2013 seasons—A-Rod's
performance from age 32 through age 38, for example, or Jose Reyes from age
25 through age 30. But if the player is still developing, you're also allowed
to stash him in the minor leagues and then start his service-time clock at
some point in the future.
假設每個球員都可以便宜用 6 年。
。In spite of this being called the Ultimate Fantasy Draft, our goal is to
assess value in a real-life baseball context, rather than in any sort of
roto- or fantasy-specific context.
選擇的重點放在能在現實中幫球隊贏球的選手，而不是在 fantasy leagues 幫我們賺分
數的選手。
。The rankings are entirely forward-looking; we are not attempting to reward
performance based on what has happened in the past (including what has
happened so far in 2008). Instead, we are solely concerned with which players
will create the most value for our team going forward.
只評估未來的表現。
。Off-field factors such as marketability are not considered, except to the
extent that they affect on-field performance. So, Daisuke Matsuzaka does not
get any extra credit because he helps you build your brand in Japan.
不考慮球場外的因素。
。Finally, we assume that your primary goal is to win the championship, taking
risks as necessary in order to do so. What that means is that this list tilts
heavily to upside over certainty. The UFD isn't for people who are content
with second place.
目標是要拿冠軍，所以一定得承擔一些風險，因此選擇的標準會著重於潛力，而不是確
定性。
These rankings take advantage of several proprietary Baseball Prospectus
tools, including our PECOTA projection system, which produces seven-year
projections for each player based on his historical comparables. Adam Jones
could be the next Willie Mays, for example—or he could be the next Corey
Patterson. However, we are by no means slaves to the numbers, as this sort of
list necessarily requires us to lean heavily on our instincts and scouting
impressions. Rankings from last year's list are contained in parentheses.
排名參考了很多數據，包含 PECOTA 預測系統，不過整體而言，這個排名還是比較偏向直
覺以及印象。括弧內是去年的排名。
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評語基本上只貼紅襪球員的，另外附上 Hanley Ramirez 和 Justin Verlander 的部分，
前者是因為他曾經是紅襪的 top prospects 之一，而後者是因為內文把他拿來跟 Josh
Beckett 比較。
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins, Age 24 (6). Ramirez leads all major leaguers
in VORP since the beginning of the 2007 season, narrowly edging out Alex
Rodriguez. You can make a very sound argument, in other words, that Ramirez
is already the best player in baseball, and since he is just 24 years old,
that naturally leads to the conclusion that he is probably the most valuable
long-term commodity. Also, look at what has happened to his batting eye. The
only offensive skill that Ramirez didn’t have in abundance before was taking
walks, but this year his walk rate has increased by more than 75 percent.
Perhaps no player will ever match what A-Rod did over his first six or seven
major league seasons, but Ramirez is the best positioned to give it a try.
2. David Wright, 3B, Mets, Age 25 (8).
3. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals, Age 28 (1).
4. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays, Age 22 (HM).
5. Grady Sizemore, CF, Indians, Age 25 (5).
6. Jose Reyes, SS, Mets, Age 25 (7).
7. Joe Mauer, C, Twins, Age 25 (2).
8. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees, Age 32 (10).
9. CC Sabathia, P, Brewers, Age 27 (17).
10. Johan Santana, P, Mets, Age 29 (3).
11. Brian McCann, C, Braves, Age 24 (9).
12. Jake Peavy, P, Padres, Age 27 (13).
13. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies, Age 29 (22).
14. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers, Age 25 (4).
15. Tim Lincecum, P, Giants, Age 24 (41).
16. Curtis Granderson, CF, Tigers, Age 27 (HM).
17. Ryan Braun, LF, Brewers, Age 24 (--).
18. Brandon Webb, P, Diamondbacks, Age 29 (16).
19. Scott Kazmir, P, Rays, Age 24 (33).
20. Cole Hamels, P, Phillies, Age 24 (29).
21. Josh Hamilton, CF, Rangers, Age 27 (--).
22. Josh Beckett, P, Red Sox, Age 28 (--). See also Justin Verlander’s
comment; Beckett’s strikeout and walk numbers have been just as good in 2008
as they were last year, even if they haven’t paid as many dividends in terms
of the showcase statistics of wins and ERA. He’s still the American Leaguer
you’d most want on the mound if you had to have somebody start a Game Seven.
23. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds, Age 21 (--).
24. Felix Hernandez, P, Mariners, Age 22 (15).
25. Justin Upton, RF, Diamondbacks, Age 20 (HM).
26. Russell Martin, C, Dodgers, Age 25 (HM).
27. Matt Holliday, LF, Rockies, Age 28 (--).
28. Joba Chamberlain, P, Yankees, Age 22 (--).
29. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers, Age 26 (HM).
30. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals, Age 23 (11).
31. Dan Haren, P, Diamondbacks, Age 27 (--).
32. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles, Age 22 (--).
33. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies, Age 29 (48).
34. Nick Markakis, RF, Orioles, Age 24 (--).
35. Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers, Age 24 (47).
36. Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros, Age 32 (32).
37. Rich Harden, P, Cubs, Age 26 (HM).
38. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Angels, Age 28 (45).
39. Roy Halladay, P, Blue Jays, Age 31 (25).
40. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox, Age 25 (--). For years, PECOTA had been
touting Pedroia, while scouts would not take him seriously. When Pedroia
started out his major league career hitting .182 in April, 2007, I thought I
could see exactly what those scouts were seeing—with his short stature and
his uppercut swing, he looked like a Little Leaguer trying to hit major
league pitching. I promptly traded him in my roto league. For Yuniesky
Betancourt. Obviously, I should have kept the faith, and let's give the Red
Sox credit for sticking with their game plan. In a lot of organizations, like
the Cubs or the Dodgers, Pedroia would have been banished to Triple-A, become
frustrated, and wound up working at a car dealership.
41. Chad Billingsley, P, Dodgers, Age 23 (--).
42. Edinson Volquez, P, Reds, Age 24 (--).
43. Carlos Zambrano, P, Cubs, Age 27 (28).
44. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels, Age 24 (26).
45. Carlos Beltran, CF, Mets, Age 31 (12).
46. B.J. Upton, CF, Rays, Age 23 (50).
47. Geovany Soto, C, Cubs, Age 25 (--).
48. Dan Uggla, 2B, Marlins, Age 28 (--).
49. John Lackey, P, Angels, Age 29 (--).
50. Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers, Age 23 (--).
Honorable Mention
Erik Bedard, P, Mariners, Age 29 (Unranked Last Year).
Clay Buchholz, P, Red Sox, Age 23 (--). The results in Beantown haven't been
pretty—a 2-8 record and a 6.35 ERA thus far on the season. But Buchholz's
strikeout rate remains solid, and we need to grade on a curve for any
23-year-old pitching against AL East competition. The way to think of
Buchholz is as a prospect rather than as a finished product. If Buchholz were
still in Triple-A, he'd be dominating the league and would rank among the top
half-dozen prospects in baseball; we rate him accordingly.
Matt Cain, P, Giants, Age 23 (--).
Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees, Age 25 (27).
Adam Jones, CF, Orioles, Age 22 (--).
Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves, Age 36 (--).
Cliff Lee, P, Indians, Age 29 (--).
Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Red Sox, Age 27 (Honorable Mention Last Year).
Papelbon holds his HM spot from last year; his performance, if anything, has
gotten better. But until closers start to be used more in the old Willie
Hernandez mold, and pitching 120 innings a season rather than 60, it is going
to be extremely hard for one of them to crack the Top 50.
Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians, Age 26 (--).
David Price, P, Devil Rays, Age 22 (--).
Ben Sheets, P, Brewers, Age 29 (--).
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies, Age 23 (--).
Justin Verlander, P, Tigers, Age 25 (49). Which of these two pitchers is
having the better season?
IP H HR BB SO
Pitcher A 186 187 21 60 124
Pitcher B 186 165 17 75 146
Pretty close, huh? Pitcher A has given up fewer walks, but Pitcher B has an
advantage in strikeouts and limiting base hits. The first pitcher is Justin
Verlander in 2006, when he had a 3.63 ERA and a 17-9 record. The second
pitcher is Justin Verlander this year, with his statistics extrapolated out
to the same number of innings pitched. But this year, his ERA is 4.60, and
his record is 9-13. There is a lot of luck inherent in pitching statistics,
and this year, Verlander has gotten the worst of it, but that doesn't make
him a worse pitcher.
--
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