Fw: The Even More Curious Case of Delmon Young

看板Rays作者knoxvillt (胖胖)時間11年前 (2013/02/19 08:51)推噓7(7推 0噓 9→)

留言16則, 6人參與討論串1/1

※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板 #1H8gbLAT ] 作者: alex710707 (#12WvKThD 水準???) 看板: MLB 標題: The Even More Curious Case of Delmon Young 時間: Tue Feb 19 06:21:05 2013 http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/18/4001958/delmon-young-phillies-prospec t-retrospective 選秀狀元楊大猛鳥掉的過程我不求甚解只翻大意有錯請指正 The Even More Curious Case of Delmon Young Last week we look at former top prospect Reid Brignac and his failure to develop properly as a hitter. Today we turn to another ex-Tampa Bay Ray, Delmon Young, who has been one of the biggest prospect disappointments over the last decade. What was he like as a prospect, what went wrong, and what might we expect from the future? Let's take a look. 上禮拜john討論Reid Brignac養成失敗的案例這禮拜改討論楊大猛過去十年最令人失望的大物之一 Delmon Young was the first-overall pick in the 2003 draft, out of high school in Camarillo, California. The younger brother of major league veteran Dmitri Young, Delmon was considered to be a better athlete than his sibling, featuring excellent power with a strong feel for hitting, a very good throwing arm, and slightly above average speed. 光芒2003選的高中生狀元 Dmitri Young 的弟弟,比哥哥體能更棒優秀的炮瓦很好的打擊強肩稍優於平均的速度 He signed too late to make his pro debut that summer, but he went to the Arizona Fall League and hit a stunning .417/.451/.625 in 15 games against much older competition. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2004 book, noting that he had a few plate discipline issues to work through, but being impressed with his "immense ability." I ranked him as the Number 16 hitting prospect in baseball entering 2004. 當年比較晚簽約在AFL 15場打出.417/.451/.625 當年因為有本壘紀律差的問題John給他 B+(2004)是當時排16名打擊新秀 Young had no problems in 2004, hitting .320/.386/.536 with 25 homers, 115 RBI , 54 walks, 120 strikeouts in 513 at-bats for Low-A Charleston, with 21 steals in 27 attempts. He drew rave reviews for his power, with his bat speed compensating for a mild issue with selectivity. He showed a good arm, but scouts felt he would lose his running speed as he got older. I loved the bat and gave him a Grade A- entering 2005, writing that he wasn't "a perfect prospect" but that his offensive upside was among the best in the game. I had him as the Number Four hitting prospect. 2004在低階1A打hitting .320/.386/.536 with 25 homers, 115 RBI, 54 walks, 120 strikeouts in 513 at-bats 27'嘗試盜壘成功21次強大的炮瓦與揮棒速度彌補選球的不足不錯的臂力而速度方面一般會認為會因年紀變大漸漸變慢 2005年John認為他雖然不是完美的新秀但因為棒子夠大支給他A- 當年排他第4名的打擊新秀排名 Skipped up a level to Double-A to open '05, Young hit .336/.386/.582 with 20 homers, 25 steals, 25 walks, and 66 strikeouts in 330 at-bats for Montgomery. Promoted to Triple-A in July, he hit .285/.303/.447 with six homers, four walks, and 33 strikeouts in 228 at-bats. Scouts continued to praise his bat speed, power, and ability to use his running speed on the bases. Triple-A pitchers got him to chase stuff outside the zone, though overall he held his own at age 19, a great sign for his future. He also toned up his body, losing 20 pounds of baby fat and adding strength. 05年跳到2A打怪繳出.336/.386/.582 with 20homers, 25 steals, 25 walks, and 66 strikeouts in 330 at-bats 七月升上3A 繳出 .285/.303/.447 with six homers, four walks, and 33 strikeouts in 228 at-bats 球探還是很欣賞他的揮棒速度砲瓦壘間的破壞力 3A投手嘗試用好球帶外面的球引誘他但他大致能護著自己的好球帶(這裡不確定) 對一個19歲的小子是個好現象他還減重20磅嬰兒肥並增加力量 There were some negative signs though. Aside from the spotty plate discipline in Triple-A, he got into trouble for chest-bumping an umpire in April, leading to a brief suspension. He was also vocally displeased when the Rays didn't promote him to the majors in September. His work ethic on the field wasn't questioned and the general idea was that he just needed to grow up a little bit. 但有些負面消息他在3A因好球帶的問題用胸部撞裁判而遭到禁賽(你又不是波霸) 又放話不爽光芒不在9月升他上MLB 他在場上的努力沒人質疑只是小朋友grow up好嗎?? I gave him a Grade A and rated him as the top hitting prospect in baseball entering 2006, banking a lot on age-relative-to-league to compensate for his remaining flaws. John給他A評價是當年第一名的打擊新秀即使有選球的缺陷但畢竟在3A相對是非常年輕的年紀 Returned to Triple-A to open 2006, he got off to a bad start when he threw his bat in late April, hitting an umpire and drawing a 50-game suspension. He was excellent when on the field, hitting .316/.341/.474 with 22 steals, 15 walks, and 65 strikeouts in 342 games in Triple-A. He received a major league trial and performed well, hitting .317/.336/.476. 2006在3A開始因拿球棒丟裁判被禁賽50場但隨後繳出.316/.341/.474 with 22 steals, 15 walks, and 65 strikeouts in 342 AB(這裡應該是打席吧 JOHN寫錯) 之後被升上大聯盟繳出 .317/.336/.476. Plate discipline remained the big issue: he drew just one walk against 24 strikeouts in 126 major league at-bats. However, when you're hitting .317/.336/.476 in the bigs at age 20, people cut you some slack. His natural talent was so good, it appeared to compensate for the flaws in his approach, and it was felt (hoped? assumed?) that he would make the necessary adjustments to truly make the sky the limit. I gave him another Grade A for 2007, writing that "informed observers believe that Delmon is young and arrogant, but he's not stupid, he basically just needs to grow up a little bit." 選球依然是問題在大聯盟126個打席只有一個保送被三振24次但畢竟才20歲又打出.317/.336/.476 他的天賦是在夠棒足以去彌補選球的問題足以讓他去做調整他的天花板直飛天際 2007年John給他A的評價有些人觀察認為他年輕卻自傲但他不笨只是需要成熟點 Young played every day (literally, 162 games) for the Rays in 2007, hitting .288/.316/.408 with 38 doubles and 13 homers. His strike zone judgment was quite weak, resulting in a 26/127 BB/K, and his overall production was disappointing with a 91 OPS+, 88 wRC+. He was also somewhat disappointing defensively, and was noticeably slower than two years in the past. He was only 21, but the Rays soured quickly and traded him off to the Minnesota Twins in the Matt Garza deal. 楊大猛在2007年打滿162場繳出.288/.316/.408 with 38 doubles and 13 homers. 對好球帶的判斷太差只有26BB 被K 127次 91 OPS+, 88 wRC+有點令人失望守備也是令人失望速度比兩年前慢很多他只有21歲但光芒馬上把他交易到雙城換來Matt Garza Young tread water in '08 and '09 (OPS+ marks of 100 and 92), with sagging defense, his hitting held back by poor plate discipline. In 2010 he was much more effective, hitting .298/.333/.493 with 21 homers and 46 doubles, with a 124 OPS+ at age 24. 楊大猛08跟09打 OPS+ 100跟92 速度也漸漸變慢他的打擊被糟糕的選球拖累 10年打得好多了 .298/.333/.493 with 21 homers and 46 doubles, with a 124 OPS+ at age 24 However, as you know, he couldn't maintain it. Young hit just .268/.302/.393 (OPS+90) in 2011 and was dumped on the Detroit Tigers for very little. '12 was no better: .267/.296/.411, with even more off-field turmoil. 但他無法維持這樣的好成績 11年.268/.302/.393 OPS+ 90 12年也沒比較好 .267/.296/.411 甚至在場外還惹更多風坡 Overall, in 880 major league games, Young has hit .284/.317/.425, OPS+98, wRC+ 96. His career WAR is a mere 0.8, thanks in great measure to very poor defense. 整體在大聯盟 880場 .284/.317/.425, OPS+98, WRC+96 生涯WAR只有0.8 因被糟糕的防守拖累 So what happened here? I don't think it is a secret: Young just hasn't made consistent adjustments and never gained adequate command of the strike zone. He got away with this in the minors due to his immense natural talent, but major league pitchers find holes that minor league pitchers can't. Delmon has also lost speed and athleticism compared to where he was four years ago, which has been deadly for his defense. Makeup has obviously been an issue as well; getting into a drunken fight while yelling anti-Semitic slurs isn't calculated to make you popular. 所以到底怎麼回事?? 很明顯在於無法調整好球帶在小聯盟可以靠他的天賦彌補但在大聯盟投手會從打者找出小聯盟投手找不到的弱點楊大猛更是失去四年前的速度跟運動能力對他的守備是一大致命傷在場外還常鬧事如喝醉嗆反猶太等等 Young's blemishes were apparent in the minors, but he was a devastating hitter in the minors even with his flaws, and just about everyone (including me) assumed that he was young enough to overcome his issues. However, while the age-relative-to-league principle is a very important factor for prospect analysis, it is just one among many. ARTL assumes that a player can and will make changes to address flaws that get exposed against better competition. Young couldn't do that, for whatever reason. 楊大猛的缺點在小聯盟就很明顯但是打擊實在太猛足夠去掩蓋他的缺點幾乎每個人包含John Sickles都認為他可以克服選球的缺點相對年紀輕的原則是這樣認為的一大因素 ARTL認為一個選手在面對更高層級時會針對他的缺點做調整但楊大猛辦不到 Is there any hope? Young is still only 27. Signed with the Phillies as a free agent, he's reportedly in better condition this spring, although he's likely going to open the season the DL with ankle problems. 他還有希望嗎他才27歲費城人簽下他報導他春訓狀況維持得不錯但可能開季因為腳踝受傷掛DL His Bill James Sim Score list through age 27 is weird: Jeff Francoeur Claudell Washington Carlos May Al Oliver Harold Baines (has a case for HoF) Carl Yastrzemski (HofF) Nick Markakis Roberto Clemente (HofF) Ken Keltner Dave Winfield (HofF) Bill James Sim Score對他的預測有點怪當中有三個HOF名將一個有機會進HOF 及不錯的Markakis Don't get excited here; Sim Score doesn't adjust well between extreme hitting or pitching eras, and the Hall guys were all considerably better than Young when context is accounted for. On the other hand, it is interesting that we have sabermetric whipping boy Jeff Francoeur at the very top of the list. Washington is a fair comp: he was quite toolsy as Young is/was and was considered rather disappointing for much of his career, but he also played in the majors for 17 seasons and turned into a useful role player. Given his age, it is possible that Young could still have a solid career along Washington/good role player lines. I wouldn't expect more than that, and he'll need good health and a more mature approach for that to happen. 因為年輕或許楊大猛有機會可變成像Washington 不錯的Role player 但我不會其期待他變得比這樣更好並且他需要維持健康變得更成熟 LESSON LEARNED: Age-relative-to-league is just one factor among many. Plate discipline matters. Makeup matters. Lesson learned:年紀相對年輕只是許多因素當中的一個考量選球是有影響的 Makeup也是 ADDITIONAL THOUGHT: Is it a coincidence that both Young and Brignac came up through the Rays system and both foundered due to strike zone problems? Additional Thought: 楊大猛跟Brignac的選球問題剛好發生在光芒農場這只是巧合嗎? 有錯請指正 -- ※ 編輯: alex710707 來自: 211.73.186.52 (02/19 06:21)

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