[農場] Weekly MiL- Breakdown: The pitching …
原文: http://ppt.cc/vOBW
這週的農場報報在三天前就出了
不過今天才忙到一個段落 忙裡偷閒來稍微翻一下
各位可以點開圖表看更完整的投手數據
圖表:http://ppt.cc/,3TA
Pitching prospects stats overview
As we already are more than a month into the season we can read much more out
of the data now than two weeks ago. Unfortunately, the overall numbers of the
top 15 pitching prospects pre season still look ugly. They combine for an ERA
of 5.19. They so far have pitched 10.5 runs BELOW AVERAGE. Even a fairly high
BABIP of .323 can’t offset these numbers as their combined IP total is 213.1
innings. The FIP (4.35) is better, though, but still nowhere near what we
expected. Looking at the individual pitching performances, especially some of
the top starting pitching prospects struggle mightily. Nick Barnese (his BABIP
suggests that he hasn’t even been unlucky), Enny Romero (last 3 starts: 8 IP,
17 H, 10 ER, 9 BB, 11 K) and Joe Cruz (11.14 ERA, 8.39 FIP, 13.7 H/9, 1.1:1
K/BB ratio) took substantial steps backwards thus far. At least the strikeout
rates of Barnese and Romero are still where they should be. The top 15 pitching
prospects combine for a K/9 rate of 10.3. So, they can get hitters to strike
out.
到現在已經開季一個多月了，我們可以從資料中獲得更多訊息了。可惜的是，我們農場
的前15投手新秀的數據總和仍舊是慘不忍睹。ERA: 5.19，就算是看BABIP也不能挽救這慘
烈的數據。FIP已經好很多(4.35)，但仍舊不是我們所期望的數值。轉看個人表現，有些
新秀先發更是在死命的掙扎中。Nick Barnese，Enny Romero跟Joe Cruz這三人表現是退
步了。不過至少Barnese跟Romero的K比率還算正常。前15新秀投手的K/9率總和是10.3，
這表示至少他們能三振人。
3 prospects on the rise
1) Matt Moore … After a slow start to the season (like seemingly every year)
he has been his old self lately. 23 K and just 10 H and 4 BB over his last two
starts (16 IP) show that. Overall his (hopefully lasting) command (only 1.8
BB/9) and high strikeout rate (12.6 K/9) make him by far the best pitching
prospect in the system and one of the best 5 overall.
2) Brandon Gomes … Another 6 exceptionally well pitched innings in Durham
rightfully earned him a spot in the Rays bullpen. For a detailed breakdown of
his numbers and repertoire check out this great post by Kevin.
3) Alex Colome … Not counting his first start of the season (1.2 IP, 5 H, 7 ER
, 4 BB, 1 K) he has been fairly solid with an upward tendency. I hope this
trend continues. His FIP and BABIP also suggest that he has been on the
receiving end of some bad luck.
進步的三人
(1) Matt Moore: 在慢熱的開季之後(好像每年都如此)，他最近總算回到他該有的水平了
。23K跟只有被10安跟4BB在他近兩次先發中(16局)顯示他在回穩了。整體來說他的控球
(1.8 BB/9)跟高三振率(12.6 K/9)讓他成為到目前為止最好的投手新秀而且也是五大新秀
之一。
(2)Brandon Gomes:在3A 6局很棒投球中使他在大聯盟的牛棚獲得一席之地。更詳盡的報導
請參考這個連結：http://ppt.cc/a@8F
(3)Alex Colome:不看他第一次的先發的話，他是滿穩定的在進步當中。期望它能持續，
他的FIP跟BABIP顯示他正在經歷一些衰運。
接下來我跳過了退步的三人，主要是這邊有解釋BABIP，我也想順便解釋一下FIP數據
The stat of the week: BABIP
Other than the usually presented “prospect of the week” I’m taking a closer
look at a stat which is not yet part of the common use. The Batting Average on
Balls In Play, short BABIP, measures how many balls in play go for a hit. The
BABIP of a pitcher measures how many balls in play go for hits against a
pitcher while the BABIP for hitters measures how many of a batter’s balls in
play go for hits.
By clicking at the links above you can check out Steve Slowinski’s excellent
descriptions of the concepts of offensive and defensive BABIP. He also provides
a BABIP calculator, some reference data and a video of the luck dragon
explaining BABIP.Considering the concept for pitchers first, a high BABIP means
that lots of the balls in play against a pitcher have gone for hits. So, a high
BABIP is either caused by …
˙A bad defense behind a pitcher,
˙simply luck or
˙a pitcher who is generally hit harder (or/and with more line drives) than
others.
Batting Average on Balls In Play，簡稱BABIP，是來計算有多少球打出去會成為安打。
BABIP用在投手上是顯示有多少球打出去會被打成安打，而用在打者上，則是測量有多少
球打出去會成為安打。
BABIP說明on Fangraph:http://ppt.cc/v6_V
點開就可看到一個完整的攻擊與防守的BABIP說明。對投手而言，高BABIP說明了一個投手
被打出的球有很高的機率會成為安打。所以說高的BABIP可能造成原因有:
a. 投手後面的爛守備
b. 就是幸運
c. 一個投手球比其他人還難被打的強勁。
A pitcher himself can only influence the 3rd criteria and thus, normally, high
BABIPs for a pitcher suggest that a pitcher is better than his ERA and H/9
stats tell. The MLB average BABIP rate in 2010 was .302. Thus, looking at the
data of the Rays pitching prospects, pitchers like Chris Rearick or Merrill
Kelly seem to have been lucky thus far while e.g. Brandon Gomes (wow! Unlucky
despite these strong numbers) or Chris Archer have been unlucky. As a result,
I for instance am not as concerned about Chris Archer than others while on the
other side thinking that Merrill Kelly simply is not as good of a pitcher as
his ERA says.
Reversing the concept, by looking at the BABIP for batters means, that a high
BABIP now suggests that the specific batter has been lucky or faced by bad
defenses. Some batters, however, historically have above average BABIPs. Mostly
, these are line drive hitters (as line drives more often go for hits than
groundballs) with lots of speed (as they can beat the defense to the base). But
, as explained above, the batter can only influence one of three criteria’s of
BABIP.
投手本身只能控制第三項條件，低BABIP投手說明他的ERA跟H/9的數據都不是真的。MLB
2010年的平均BABIP是.302。那來看看我們新秀小朋友們的數據，一些人像Chris Rearick
或Merrill Kelly看來是比Brandon Gomes(即使Gomes的其他數據超棒)或Chris Archer來的
好運。但總的來說，比上其他人，我對Chris Archer還比較沒那麼擔心，至少就ERA來說，
Merrill Kelly看來不是個好投手。
反過來說，當把這數據放到打者身上來看呢，高BABIP顯示打者可能正走好運，或者是他
碰到爛防守。但有些打者，他就是有高一點的BABIP。大部分他們都是強力打者(他們打
的球形成強勁飛球機率比滾地球還來得高)配上不錯的球速(能對防守造成破壞)。不過就
如同上面所說的，打者也只會影響三個其中某一個的條件罷了。
（註:這一段說的應該是打者有高BABIP應該是屬於強拉型打者，平飛配上球出去很快，不
過不管怎樣，高BABIP也可能是因為運氣使然，因為要嘛就是他剛好打到沒人接的到的地方
，不然就是他就剛好遇到爛防守。）
So, the concept of BABIP is a very important one in order to assess a players’
performance. It relativizes stats like ERA and H/9 and it correlates with more
advanced stats like FIP (fielding independent pitching … measuring a pitchers
performance by assuming an average BABIP) . Normally, pitchers with a lower FIP
than ERA have been unlucky and thus have a high BABIP.
所以說BABIP是一個非常重要的指標來評估球員的表現。他是跟其他數據相關連的如ERA跟
H/9，同時他也跟一個近一步的數據息息相關:FIP(Fielding independent pitching，用假
定的平均BABIP來評量一個投手的表現)。通常來說，投手有個比ERA還低的FIP是代表他正
在雖小所以會有高的BABIP（Gomes，Quate，Archer等人都顯示這樣）。
關於FIP(Fielding independent pitching)，在Fangraph也有說明
http://ppt.cc/D3Oz
我就不整篇打出來了，不過大致上是說，投手對於被打出去的球是不能控制的。所以關於
評估一個投手只要看下列幾項：K,BB,HBP跟被HRs。
很顯然的，全壘打對投手傷害最重，保送其次，最少的是K。FIP計算這些之後，給出一個
跟ERA很像的數據。這數據已經被證實是比ERA還要有用的數值，而且在數據棒球學中也會
成為一個重要的數值。
總的來說，看打者可能要看BABIP比較準，而看投手就看FIP，因為投手的BABIP影響因素
實在比打者來的少太多。（打者可能三個都有影響，投手只能影響一個 囧）
以上列出一些數據的說明 希望對大家有幫助。
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