Prospect Previews: RH Starters 6-10
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Here's the second installment in my 11-part series profiling the top
prospects in the Rangers heralded farm system. This batch of right-handers
includes a guy who is arguably the most talented and least experienced arm in
the system, as well as a former top-prospect who should not be forgotten in
spite of the fact that little has been heard from him over the past two years.
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10) Thomas Diamond -- 6'3", 245 lbs. (1st round, 2004) -- DOB: 4/06/1983
Diamond missed a year and a half after undergoing Tommy John surgery and when
he came back this summer, he had something totally new to show for it. It
wasn't just the scar on his elbow. Suddenly -- almost inexplicably -- Diamond
returned to action wielding an incredible 12-6 yakker after spending years
waffling back and forth between a slider and a curve, neither of which was a
usable pitch.
It's probably not real fair to judge Diamond's results on the mound this
year. He was predictably erratic after having missed so much time. And just
as he was starting to get his feel for pitching back, he developed bone spurs
in his ankle that ended his season in early August. There were a few flashes
of Diamond's considerable talent this summer (four shutout innings, fanning
five while allowing two hits against Corpus on July 20) and some outright
disasters (nine earned runs on nine hits in four innings against NW Arkansas
on June 30).
The last time a healthy and totally pitching-fit Diamond took the mound, back
in 2006, he led the Texas League in wins (12-5) and strikeouts (145 in 129
innings for a 10.12 K/9). He held the league to a .219 batting average. All
of that should add up to the sort of utter dominance he showed in Bakersfield
in 2005 (1.99 ERA and an 11.22 K/9). But in spite of his strikeout numbers
and the inability of opponents to make quality contact with his stuff,
Diamond's ERA for Frisco in 2006 was a slightly puffy 4.24 due to the fact
that he was, at times, a reluctant strike thrower.
Diamond has the ability to dial up 97 mph cheese. He can sit comfortably in
the 94-95 mph range past 100 pitches. His changeup is outstanding (he held
lefties to a.218 batting average in 2006). Now that he has a plus curve to go
with those two offerings, everything is in place for him to become a quality
big league starter...but only if he'll consistently attack the strike zone.
Diamond has been something of a Jekyll & Hyde pitcher. There are times where
he can be the most ruthless, intimidating guy on the field and others when he
seems to be too passive for his own good. I've had the chance to see Diamond
pitch many times and I want to make it clear that I'm not suggesting that
there's ever a time that he doesn't care. That's certainly not it. But there
are times when he seems to forget that he's the sort of pitcher who can dial
up 97 mph cheese and hold opponents to a .200 batting average.
2009 Projection: I hope to see Diamond start the season in the Oklahoma
rotation and he probably will. If he'll just pound the strike zone this year
like he did before he got to Frisco, he'll be ready to contribute in
Arlington by the end of the summer. Oddly enough, Diamond is something of a
'sleeper' for me in 2009.
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9) Joe Wieland -- 6'3", 175 lbs. (4th round, 2008) -- DOB: 1/21/1990
Here's the Buzz Boy right now. The book on Wieland coming out of a Reno,
Nevada high school was that he was a confident, polished pitcher who knew how
to work down in the zone and could break off a plus curveball. Scouts deemed
him projectable, given his long, thin frame. And since turning pro, Wieland
has done nothing but exceed all expectations.
He's already adding velocity to his fastball -- up to 92-93 mph from 90 mph
in high school, with more to come by all accounts -- and he's shown an
advanced feel for his change. His numbers were phenomenal: 1.44 ERA and a 41
/ 8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He held hitters to a .200 batting average. As
good as those stats were, everyone seems to be more impressed with Wieland's
intangibles than his numbers.
Ranked by Baseball America as the 11th best prospect in the Arizona Rookie
League, Wieland impressed AZL observers with his professionalism, his
willingness to pound the strike zone and his confident-but-not-cocky
approach. His manager in the Arizona Rookie League, Bill Richardson, told
Baseball America that Wieland "he walked into that clubhouse out of high
school and acted like he belonged ."
2009 Projection: Given his advanced approach, polish, maturity and
confidence, I think you can probably bank on seeing Wieland beginning the
season in the Class-A Hickory rotation.
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8) Tommy Hunter -- 6'3", 260 lbs. (Supp. 1st Rd., 2007) -- DOB: 7/03/1986
The Rangers have a pitcher in their system who, just one year after being
drafted, blew through the Cal League, the Texas League, got a cameo in
Arlington and posted a 2.89 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A Oklahoma.
Think about that for a minute.
If you don't normally follow the minors and your exposure to Hunter is
limited to his three starts for the Rangers, you probably have a poor
impression of him. If, on the other hand, you throw out those three starts
and take a hard look at the rest of Hunter's season, you have to be
impressed, especially when you take a look at how he matches up with his
draft peers.
The 54th player taken in a 2007 draft heavy on collegiate pitching prospects,
Hunter was the 15th college pitcher taken, behind David Price (1), Daniel
Moskos (4), Ross Detwiler (6), Casey Weathers (8), Joe Savery (19), Nick
Schmidt (23), Aaron Poreda (25), James Simmons (26), Andrew Brackman (30),
Clayton Mortensen (36), Brett Cecil (38), James Adkins (39), Eddie Kunz (42),
and Wes Roemer (50).
Moskos (Clemson) posted a 5.95 ERA in 29 outings for Advanced-A Hickory.
Detwiler (Missouri State) posted a 4.86 ERA in 26 starts for Advanced-A
Potomac. Schmidt (Arkansas) posted a 6.43 ERA at Class-A Fort Wayne. Savery
(Rice) was pretty ordianry at Advanced-A all season (4.13 ERA). Brackman
(N.C. State) is getting killed in the Hawaiian Winter League and Roemer put
together a 4.59 ERA in 28 starts at Advanced-A Visalia.
Poreda had a very strong year in Advanced-A and Simmons was excellent in the
Texas League, but only Hunter, Price and Cecil enjoyed success at three
levels, including Triple-A and only Price joined Hunter in earning big league
service time. Neither Price nor Cecil, however, could match Hunter's success
in Triple-A.
Nobody's saying that he is in David Price's league, but when you look at
Hunter's season in this context, it's inarguably remarkable.
Hunter was considered something of a "reach" pick at number 54 overall in the
2007 draft. Baseball America projected him as a third or fourth rounder. But
the Rangers had scouted him intensively at the University of Alabama and make
it known to the Indianapolis native that they intended to take him in the
June draft. He made ten appearances out of the Spokane pen after signing in
early August of 2007, and posted a 2.55 ERA. He went on to Fall Instructional
League to work on refining his change.
The Rangers tweaked his delivery to get more of his heft behind the ball,
improve his velocity and give his change more sink than run. Hunter brought a
solid 90ish fastball and a go-to curve that has always been (and still is)
his best offering. But his changeup was underdeveloped and underused.
Hunter skipped over Class-A Clinton and began this season with Advanced-A
Bakersfield where he went 5-4 with a 3.44 ERA before moving on to Double-A
Frisco where he went 3-2 and posted a 3.78 ERA. Promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma
at the beginning of July, Hunter sailed through his first five starts at that
level, posting a 3.24 ERA while averaging almost seven innings per start.
After his cameo on Arlington, he returned to Oklahoma and was even better,
lowering his ERA to 2.89 and ending his season with an eight-inning beauty
against Memphis, allowing a run on six hits and no walks, fanning four.
Hunter's month and a half with Frisco was a pivotal period in his development
as his changeup clearly improved significantly under a plan -- enforced by
teammate Thomas Diamond -- that made him throw more changeups than curves.
Diamond fined Hunter five bucks for every curve he threw over 20.
Diamond's punitive program was nixed in short order by the development staff,
but Hunter began to back off the curve enough to finally develop his change
during his time in Frisco and as a result, he held Texas League lefties to a
.229 / .288 / .333 line.
When Hunter moved on to Oklahoma, lefties had their way with him (.373 / .391
/ .663). Obviously, he'll have learn to trust his change and use it against
lefties not just because Thomas Diamond promises to punish him if he doesn't,
but because he saw for himself in Frisco that it works.
Hunter is an innings-eating horse who is not afraid to challenge hitters. He
averaged better than 6.2 innings per start in Oklahoma and Frisco. Ideally,
he becomes a stabilizer at the back of the Rangers rotation, probably as a
number four starter.
2009 Projection: Hopefully, the 22 year old will be afforded the luxury of
spending an entire season in Oklahoma. If he is able to hone his change and
learn to trust it in the right situations, he should be ready to slide into
the Rangers rotation by opening day in 2010 when he'll be three months short
of his 24th birthday.
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7) Omar Poveda -- 6'4", 200 lbs. (Int'l F.A., 2004) -- D.O.B. 9/28/1987
In my opinion, Poveda is one of the great examples of the outstanding job the
Ranger pitching development staff has done in recent years. The big
Venezuelan has made steady progress during his four years in the system, and
that's usually a good sign of future success.
Poveda spent the 2005 season with Class-A Clinton where he fared well against
lefties, but got tuned up by right-handed hitters. Repeating the Midwest
League as a 19 year old (and still one of the youngest players on that
circuit) in 2006, Poveda established himself as one of the league's most
dominant starters, posting a 2.79 ERA and racking up just under one K per 9
while walking just 32 in 125.2 innings of work. His WHIP in Clinton was an
ungodly 1.00.
Poveda pounds the strike zone with an average (but improving) fastball that
has increased in velocity over the past 18 months (up from high-80's to
92ish, touching 94 on occasion), a fast-improving slider and one of the
dirtiest changeups in the system.
In 2006, Rangers minor league pitching coordinator Rick Adair was concerned
with Poveda's over-reliance on his changeup, but emphasized that the big
(6'4", 200 lbs.) Venezuelan had plenty of room and time for improvement.
Poveda had suffered from a deviated septum which had hindered his physical
development and, prior to the 2006 season, the club arranged for the young
man to have surgery to correct the problem. It had an immediate impact on his
development. He finally began to get adequate sleep and added good weight to
his then 180 lb. frame. With that, came additional power.
Poveda also made strides with his slider, and after posting dramatically
unbalanced reverse splits in 2006 (.255 / .292 / .370 vs. LH and .307 / .355
/ .486 vs. RH), he wielded equal dominance over both righties and lefties in
2007 (.205 / .254 / .330 vs. LH and .211 / .272 / .327 vs. RH). The
difference in the splits supports the more subjective assertions that both
his fastball and slider and improved significantly since the 2006 season.
An August promotion to the Cal League was predictably rough and it appears
that Poveda once again relied too heavily on his dirty changeup, as he posted
the severe reverse splits that had marred his 2006 campaign (.210 / .279 /
.371 vs. LH hitters and .304 / .400 / .457 vs. RH hitters). One-third of the
62 at-bats Cal League hitters had against Poveda ended with a K.
This past year, Poveda missed two months of action due to shoulder issues,
but when he returned to Bakersfield, he once again made steady progress and
ended the year with an outstanding final month, posting a 2.83 ERA and
racking up 38 strikeouts in 35 innings spanning six starts. Most
impressively, Poveda evened out his splits again, holding righ-handed hitters
to a .227 / .312 / .380 line. It was the first time in his career when he was
tougher against righties than lefties. Adair attributes this to Poveda's
improved strength which added velocity to his fastball and allowed him to
deal a more consistent slider.
2009 Projection: Poveda will begin the season in the Frisco rotation and will
probably spend the entire season in the Texas League, turning 22 after the
season ends. Though few believe that Poveda is a future ace, it's hard to put
any ceiling on a guy like this who continues to improve every year while
pitching as one of the youngest players in his league.
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6) Wilmer Font -- 6'4", 235 lbs. (Int'l F.A., 2006) -- DOB: 5/24/1990
Just about a month or so after he turned 17 in 2007, big Venezuelan Wilmer
Font made his professional debut in the Arizona Rookie League. He pitched
45.2 innings that summer and fanned 61 hitters (12.04 K/9) and he had
absolutely no idea what he was doing.
This past spring, on my first day in Surprise, I wandered over to the minor
league fields on the Royals side of the complex to catch the Class-A game.
Slated to start that game was Neftali Feliz. Perched in the crow's nest above
the field was General Manager Jon Daniels. Pressed up against the backstop
with his radar gun was ESPN's Keith Law. As Feliz took the mound, both
Rangers and Royals prospects gathered to watch the Dominican flamethrower
whip off a series of 96-98 mph fastballs. After two innings, Feliz handed the
ball to the manchild, Font. And suddenly, nearly every person on that side of
the complex had gathered to watch.
One of the things you learn by going to minor league spring training games is
that when you see a swarm of other players gather to watch a guy, you know
that word has spread throughout the camps that the guys is a freak of nature.
Font did not disappoint. Law -- a former assistant GM for the Blue Jays --
described what he and I saw that day as follows:
"Feliz was just the opening act for the star attraction, 17-year-old Wilmer
Font. Font checks in at 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds and attracted a crowd of
pitchers behind the plate to watch him work. Fitting for a big guy, he has a
big fastball, hitting 98 and working mostly at 93-96 mph, with good downhill
plane, and he shows good command for a 17-year-old with just 45 innings of
U.S. experience. There's an obvious plan to work down in the zone, and he can
execute on it well given his age and history. His secondary stuff is still
raw; his slider was a little ahead of his changeup, with good tilt but a
long, loose break. His arm action is a little long in back, but his delivery
is otherwise solid, and his velocity is very easy."
My report, posted about 18 hours before Law published his, was much the same:
"Font's raw ability is unprecedented in my time following pitchers in the
Rangers minor league system. The big kid (probably 6'4", 235 lbs.) warms up
at 94 mph. He threw about eight really strong curveballs in the high 70's
(he's got some command issues to work out with that pitch, but it's not as
bad as I had expected), and I had him with at least one K on an 82 mph change
(love that 16 mph subtraction) with excellent arm speed."
I point this out because I want to make the point that as freakishly talented
as Feliz is, Font might possess even more pure, raw talent and that's
something that -- for at least one day in which Feliz was undeniably 'on' --
was evident to not only myself, but to the kids in the minor league camp and
someone like Law, who is a trained and experienced scout.
It's this extremely rare talent that elevates Font to this position on my
list, not his results. The 2008 season was a disaster for Font, who --
shortly after that mid-March outing I just described -- was shut down for a
few months with shoulder issues. Just as he was about to return to action in
mid-July, he injured a knee during a conditioning drill. He finally returned
to the mound on August 18 and he was a mess. Font recorded just one out that
day, allowing five runs to score as he surrendered a hit, walked one and
plunked three very unfortunate Padres prospects.
Font made two more appearances in Arizona, going two innings each time, and
it was just enough to remind everyone that this is still Wilmer Font. He did
not allow a single hit. He did not issue a walk or hit a batter and he fanned
five.
Though no one doubts his essential talent, Font, who turned 18 in May, has
not adjusted to the rigors of playing baseball professionally as well as some
of his fellow teenaged Venezuelans such as Martin Perez and Wilfredo Boscan,
or Omar Poveda before them. One thing that I've learned all too well in
following prospects over the years is that, no matter how much talent a guy
possesses, it's not going to amount to much if he (a) doesn't really, really
want to make it; (b) isn't willing to do all of the hard work necessary to
get there; and (c) doesn't have the capacity to learn and adjust. Font has to
begin to answer all of those questions next year if he is to someday realize
his immense potential.
2009 Projection: I suspect that the Rangers would like Font to show up next
March in good enough shape that he can be considered for an assignment to
Class-A Hickory next April where he'd likely spend most of the year pitching
mostly out of the bullpen in an effort to manage his innings. An assignment
to Spokane beginning in June is more likely.
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