[情報] Keith Law's Top 25 prospects update
http://tinyurl.com/q7hwep7
Although it's the height of Rule 4 draft season, I typically reorder my top
25 pro prospects as we approach the end of May each year. This year there
isn't as much chaos as there usually is near the top of the rankings, as just
one top-10 prospect from this winter is currently in the majors.
We had two late but significant promotions that removed players from
consideration for this list -- Jurickson Profar (Texas) and Kevin Gausman
(Baltimore). Profar was the top prospect on my offseason list and would have
remained so if he were still in the minors right now. Gausman would have
moved up significantly from the offseason into the back of the top 10, as he
was one of the top pitching prospects in the minors alongside Taijuan Walker
and Archie Bradley.
1. Oscar Taveras, OF | St. Louis Cardinals (age 20)
Current level: Triple-A (Memphis)
Preseason ranking: 2
Taveras hasn't had a huge start in Triple-A this year, hitting for average
but not power with a poor walk rate, although he won't turn 21 until
mid-June, and the raw hit and power tools are beyond any doubt. Whenever the
Cardinals have an opening in their outfield, he's ready, as soon as he gets
over a recent ankle injury that has had him on the shelf for a couple of
weeks.
2. Byron Buxton, CF | Minnesota Twins (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (Cedar Rapids)
Preseason ranking: 22
Buxton was the top prospect on my board in last year's amateur draft, and
his huge April (.392 BA/.510 OBP/.584 SLG) seemed to justify that ranking in
striking fashion. His May hasn't been as torrid, but the raw ability that
made him such a commodity out of high school -- 80-grade speed on the 20-80
scouting scale, a very quick bat, a plus arm, the potential for plus-plus
defense in center -- is accompanied by more present baseball skill than I
realized last spring. He's already 19, so a late-season promotion to high-A
wouldn't be too aggressive if he continues to rake.
3. Xander Bogaerts, SS | Boston Red Sox (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Portland)
Preseason ranking: 5
Still just 20 years old, Bogaerts has been playing solid shortstop for
Portland with a solid walk rate but isn't yet generating the power expected
from his explosive swing. I have little doubt that will come in time and
still believe he has a better-than-even chance to stay at short.
4. Christian Yelich, OF | Miami Marlins (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Jacksonville)
Preseason ranking: 6
A foot injury started his season late, but after a slow couple of weeks,
Yelich has returned to mashing, hitting .284/.356/.636 since the start of May
with patience and a high contact rate, as well as solid defense in center. He
has one of the best swings in the minors and could see the big leagues this
summer given what's (not) ahead of him in Miami.
5. Francisco Lindor, SS | Cleveland Indians (age 19)
Current level: High Class A (Carolina)
Preseason ranking: 7
Lindor doesn't quite have the star potential of the guys above him, but he's
going to be a very good big leaguer for a very long time. He will play this
entire season at age 19 and ranks in the top 10 in the high-A Carolina League
in OBP, while providing plus defense at short and value on the bases. He
probably won't have the power to end up a superstar, but he could be an Elvis
Andrus-type player who's extremely valuable without ever becoming an MVP
contender.
6. Miguel Sano, 3B | Minnesota Twins (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Fort Myers)
Preseason ranking: 11
There are so few guys in the minors who project to hit 30 to 35 homers a
year -- without some huge caveat such as, "He might strike out 200 times a
year" -- that Sano ends up in the top 10 here despite questions about his
position (he's still hanging in there at third base) and ultimate size. I
don't think he'll be in the majors before late 2014, at the earliest, but the
probability of his becoming an above-average big league regular is very high
now.
7. Wil Myers, RF | Tampa Bay Rays (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Durham)
Preseason ranking: 4
Myers has had one of the worst starts of any player on this list, striking
out nearly a third of the time while hitting for very little power, something
I discussed in April when I saw Durham play. He's actually been worse since
that series, maintaining that low contact rate with declining results when he
does put the ball in play.
8. Taijuan Walker, RHP | Seattle Mariners (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Jackson)
Preseason ranking: 9
Walker is repeating Double-A after last year's two-level jump to avoid the
hitter-friendly Cal League, and the results have been just adequate so far,
although everything that has made Walker a top prospect for two-plus years is
intact -- the big fastball, the incredible athleticism, the easy delivery.
He's added a spike curveball this year, a move that makes no sense to me
given that he already had a good curveball and that Mike Mussina is the only
major league starter I know of who could command a spike. I'd like to see
Walker go back to fastball-curveball-change and focus on commanding what he's
got.
9. Archie Bradley, RHP | Arizona Diamondbacks (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Mobile)
Preseason ranking: 29
Bradley always had ace-quality stuff, with a fastball up to 98 mph and a
curveball from hell, but his control troubles last year appear to be behind
him. He has walked just more than 10 percent of hitters this year after
walking more than 14 percent of them last year. Diamondbacks fans should be
gritty -- I mean, giddy -- over the prospect of a rotation with Bradley, Pat
Corbin, Tyler Skaggs, Wade Miley and Daniel Hudson by Opening Day of 2015.
10. Addison Russell, SS | Oakland Athletics (age 19)
Current level: High Class A (Stockton)
Preseason ranking: 10
A minor back injury led to a slow start for Russell, whom the A's promoted
aggressively to high-A at age 19 this spring, but he's starting to return to
form now, showing solid plate discipline and the ability to square up better
quality pitching. He projects as an impact bat at shortstop, where impact
bats are hard to come by.
11. Dylan Bundy, RHP | Baltimore Orioles (age 20)
Current level: Has not played (injury)
Preseason ranking: 3
Bundy was in the top three in all of baseball coming into this spring, but
the uncertainty around his elbow injury decreases his value, at least for the
time being. I've heard that Buck Showalter wanted Bundy to improve his time
to the plate, which could have caused Bundy to alter his mechanics and hurt
himself, but the injury could just as easily be the result of overuse in high
school.
The latest on Bundy is that he is set to resume throwing in a couple of
weeks after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection to deal with soreness
in his right forearm.
12. Gerrit Cole, RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Indianapolis)
Preseason ranking: 8
You know, Gerrit, it's time we talk about what it means to have "plus
stuff." It doesn't mean you light up the radar gun. It doesn't mean you
buckle scouts' knees with your slider. It means every now and then you need
to miss a bat. So maybe do that a little more and walk guys a little less,
and we'll see you in the big leagues.
13. Aaron Sanchez, RHP | Toronto Blue Jays (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Dunedin)
Preseason ranking: 19
He's on the shelf right now with a minor muscle pull, but Sanchez's plus
stuff, including a fastball up to 99 mph with minimal effort, is producing
better results already than it did last year, a step forward similar to
Archie Bradley's, where the performance is catching up to the scouting
reports.
14. Jameson Taillon, RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Altoona)
Preseason ranking: 20
If you want to argue that Taillon is better than Cole, I won't strongly
dispute it. Cole has more weapons and does it a little easier, but Taillon is
very physical and will show two plus pitches of his own, with just a year's
difference between the two.
15. Zack Wheeler, RHP | New York Mets (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Las Vegas)
Preseason ranking: 15
Wheeler missed one start in May with a sore clavicle but returned last week
to throw five innings at Iowa and isn't expected to have further problems. He
has top-of-the-rotation stuff, and after a few wild outings early in the
year, including one in which he walked six guys, he has walked just five in
his past four outings.
16. Gary Sanchez, C | New York Yankees (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Tampa)
Preseason ranking: 18
Although there's still some question of whether he will remain a catcher
long term, I think he's going to stay there, as he's enough of an athlete to
become an adequate backstop in time -- and his bat will be MVP-caliber for
that position.
17. Anthony Rendon, 3B | Washington Nationals (age 22)
Current level: Double-A (Harrisburg)
Preseason ranking: 17
Rendon didn't embarrass himself in 25 at-bats in Washington last month and
continues to hit well with an outstanding approach in Double-A. I still don't
get why the Nationals are taking a guy who's had three traumatic ankle
injuries and experimenting with him at second base, and if they leave him at
third, he can take over when Ryan Zimmerman has to move off the position.
18. Mike Zunino, C | Seattle Mariners (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Tacoma)
Preseason ranking: N/A
The third overall pick in last June's draft, Zunino, like Myers, has
struggled to start the season, although in his defense he's the only position
player from his draft class who's in Triple-A right now. I thought he might
be up by late June, but Labor Day seems like a more realistic target now.
19. Carlos Correa, SS | Houston Astros (age 18)
Current level: Low Class A (Quad Cities)
Preseason ranking: 24
Correa was the No. 1 pick last June, one spot ahead of Buxton. If you're an
Astros fan dismayed to see Buxton's crazy start in low-A, bear in mind that
Correa is nine months younger than Buxton and performing extremely well
(.274/.402/.400) for someone so young and who has yet to grow into his frame
and tap into his power potential.
20. Kyle Zimmer, RHP | Kansas City Royals (age 21)
Current level: High Class A (Wilmington)
Preseason ranking: 27
Zimmer looked dominant earlier in the season but has slowed a little to
where he's looking just very good. It's a tiny sample, but seeing that he's
allowed six homers already in nine starts isn't great, since he pitches in a
big ballpark and his stuff is good enough that A-ball hitters shouldn't
square him up like that.
21. Jorge Soler, OF | Chicago Cubs (age 21)
Current level: High Class A (Daytona)
Preseason ranking: 42
The power is already showing up thanks to Soler's tremendous bat speed, and
he's drawn more walks (18 in 173 PAs) than I would have guessed given how
long he had gone without facing live pitching before last summer. He's been
only fair in right field and his arm has looked average, both disappointments
relative to what I saw from him last year.
22. Gregory Polanco, OF | Pittsburgh Pirates (age 21)
Current level: High Class A (Bradenton)
Preseason ranking: 55
Scouts seem mixed on whether he'll stay in center or not, but even if he
doesn't, he brings a lot of skills to the table offensively and would be very
good in a corner. If he does stay in center, he has some star potential
because of his bat.
23. Garin Cecchini, 3B | Boston Red Sox (age 22)
Current level: High Class A (Salem)
Preseason ranking: Unranked
Cecchini is a high-IQ player with a good feel for hitting but no plus tools
who just missed my preseason top 100 and now looks like he clearly should
have made it, hitting .365/.475/.615 and translating that ability to hit into
above-average power production. There's absolutely some
randomness/sample-size stuff at work here, but the early reports from scouts
are glowing -- it's hard not to write up a player positively when he goes
8-for-10 in a three-game series.
24. Michael Wacha, RHP | St. Louis Cardinals (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Memphis)
Preseason ranking: Unranked
Multiple scouts have told me they've seen an above-average breaking ball
from Wacha this year, which was the main concern about him coming out of
Texas A&M last June. (That said, I still don't get why he fell to the 19th
pick.) There are rumors he will be called up to start for St. Louis on
Thursday, but even if he has to wait, he could step into the Cardinals'
rotation this summer and be a league-average starter as soon as next year.
25. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP | Tampa Bay Rays (Age 20)
Current level: Low Class A (Bowling Green)
Preseason ranking: 47
The Rays have handled him very gently, but Guerrieri is flashing ace stuff
-- fastball up to 97 mph, a hammer breaking ball -- while showing very good
control for a 20-year-old in his first full season of pro ball. He has been
facing 18-to-21 hitters in most starts but has yet to walk more than two guys
in any outing. He's also killing worms like it's a mission, with a
groundout/air out rate above 3.5.
Also considered:
Robert Stephenson, RHP (Cincinnati Reds)
Yasiel Puig, OF (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Billy Hamilton, CF (Cincinnati Reds)
Tyler Skaggs, LHP (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Corey Seager, IF (Los Angeles Dodgers)
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