[討論] Top 100 Draft Flashback: Notable Flop
Top 100 Draft Flashback: Notable Flops
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Catchers ─ Jeff Clement, Mariners (3rd, 2005)
& Ryan Christianson, Mariners (11th, 1999)
Though Jeff Clement failed to live up to his draft position (third overall in
2005) with Seattle, batting .237/.309/.393 in 75 games after twice ranking as
the system’s top prospect, at least he reached the majors. Ryan
Christianson, the 11th pick in the 1999 draft by the Mariners out of a
Riverside, Calif., high school signed for $2.1 million but failed to reach
the majors, topping out at Triple-A Tacoma in 2004 and ’05. Injury woes and
an all-or-nothing hitting approach proved to be his undoing.
Shortstops ─ Matt Bush, Padres (1st, 2004)
& Corey Myers, Diamondbacks (4th, 1999)
Given his status as the first pick in the 2004 draft, and considering the
players the Padres passed on—Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew and Justin Verlander
—and considering he’s incarcerated, Matt Bush may be the biggest bust at
any position in draft history. The San Diego high school product signed for
$3.15 million but delivered a batting line of .219/.294/.276 in parts of four
seasons in the low minors before converting to the mound in 2007. He made
enough progress as a pitcher to reach Double-A and make the Rays’ 40-man
roster following 2011 season, but ultimately Bush has more drunken-driving
convictions (three) and arm surgeries (two) than major league appearances.
Bush’s fall obscures another prep shortstop on a hometown discount gone bad.
The Diamondbacks selected local Phoenix product Corey Myers with the fourth
pick in the 1999 draft, signing him for $2 million, but he quickly moved off
shortstop and then departed as a minor league free agent following the 2005
season, having topped out at Triple-A Tucson as a corner infielder/catcher.
First Base ─ Michael Aubrey, Indians (11th, 2003)
& Beau Mills, Indians (13th, 2007)
& Matt LaPorta, Brewers (7th, 2007) [2008被交易到印地安人]
& Jason Stokes, Marlins (41th, 2000, $2.027M bonus) [2007換到綠帽]
--大聯盟生涯成績不佳組--
David McCarty, Twins (3rd, 1991)
& Marc Newfield, Mariners (6th, 1990)
David McCarty (third, 1991) played for seven clubs in parts of 11 big league
seasons, though he contributed just a 76 OPS+. Marc Newfield (sixth, 1990)
matched that OPS+ in a six-year big league career, though he spent most of
his time in left field.
The Indians have employed three of the bigger first-round, first-base
disappointments, though they drafted just two of them. Persistent back
trouble kept former Tulane first baseman Michael Aubrey (11th, 2003) from
realizing his potential, and Beau Mills (13th, 2007) hit just .232/.281/.443
in parts of two seasons at Triple-A before being traded to the Reds last
June. Cleveland also saw Matt LaPorta, the seventh pick in the 2007 draft, as
its big bounty when it traded C.C. Sabathia in 2008, though he was drafted by
the Brewers as a Florida senior.
From a money standpoint, Marlins 2000 second-rounder Jason Stokes, who signed
for $2.027 million, might be the biggest bust. His case is mitigated,
however, because Miami was able to flip Stokes to the Athletics for John
Baker in 2007, and then trade Baker to the Padres for Wade LeBlanc following
the 2011 season.
Second Base ─ Chris Burke, Astros (10th, 2001)
Every first-round second baseman in our 20-year window made the majors,
though Chris Burke, the 10th pick in 2001 by the Astros, made a limited impact
—the ’05 NL Division Series versus the Braves notwithstanding—batting
.239/.315/.359 in 477 games. The former Southeastern Conference player of the
year at Tennessee actually spent more time in the outfield than at the
keystone in a six-year career for Houston, Arizona and San Diego.
Third Base ─ Antone Williamson, Brewers (4th, 1994)
& Billy Rowell, Orioles (9th, 2006)
& Kevin Ahrens, Blue Jays (16th, 2007)
& Matt Moses (21st, 2003)
--問號組--
Josh Vitters, Cubs (3rd, 2007)
& Matt Dominguez, Marlins (12nd, 2007)
--大聯盟生涯成績不佳組--
Sean Burroughs, Padres (9th, 1998)
& Ian Stewart, Rockies (10th, 2003)
The Brewers got 1994 fourth overall pick Antone Williamson, a former Arizona
State third baseman, to the big leagues for 24 games in ’97. At least they
got him to Milwaukee. Much more noteworthy is the flameout rate for prep
third basemen taken in the upper two-thirds of the first round. The Orioles’
Billy Rowell (ninth, 2006), the Blue Jays’ Kevin Ahrens (16th, 2007) and
the Twins’Matt Moses (21st, 2003) failed to reach the majors, and only
Moses reached Triple-A, playing 48 games there in ’07.
More broadly, for every prep third-base success story like Dmitri Young
(fourth, 1991) or Eric Chavez (10th, 1996), you’ll find a first-round
what-if, such as Sean Burroughs (ninth, 1998) or Ian Stewart (10th, 2003).
Burroughs (Padres) and Stewart (Rockies) each ranked as his system’s top
prospect on two occasions, yet didn’t live up to that potential in the big
leagues. We’re still giving the benefit of the doubt to a pair of 2007
first-rounders, Josh Vitters (third) and Matt Dominguez (12th), but the
outlook for both is not particularly bright.
Outfielders ─ Jeff Jackson, Phillies (4th, 1989)
& B.J. Garbe, Twins (5th, 1999)
& Chris Lubanski, Royals (5th, 2003)
& Paul Coleman, Cardinals (5th, 1989)
& Jaime Jones, Marlins (6th, 1995)
& Ryan Harvey, Cubs (6th, 2003)
& Earl Cunningham, Cubs (8th, 1989)
-- 沾醬油組--
Mike Kelly, Braves (2nd, 1991)
& Donald Harris, Rangers (5th, 1989)
& Chad Mottola, Reds (5th, 1992)
& Joe Vitiello, Royals (7th, 1991)
& Calvin Murray, Giants (7th, 1992)
It’s difficult to find top 10 draft picks selected as high school catchers
or shortstops or third basemen who don’t at least receive a cup of coffee in
the big leagues. The same is not true for outfielders. Seven top 10 prep
outfielders failed to reach the majors at all: Jeff Jackson (Phillies, No. 4,
1989), B.J. Garbe (Twins, No. 5, 1999), Chris Lubanski (Royals, No. 5, 2003),
Paul Coleman (Cardinals, No. 6, 1989), Jaime Jones (Marlins, No. 6, 1995),
Ryan Harvey (Cubs, No. 6, 2003) and Earl Cunningham (Cubs, No. 8, 1989).
To be fair, a handful of top 10 college outfielders made very small imprints
in the big leagues, including Mike Kelly (Braves, No. 2, 1991), Donald Harris
(Rangers, No. 5, 1989), Chad Mottola (Reds, No. 5, 1992), Joe Vitiello
(Royals, No. 7, 1991) and Calvin Murray (Giants, No. 7, 1992).
Given that eight of the 12 outfield busts hail from the 1989-92 drafts—with
none coming after 2003—it’s safe to assume that teams have improved their
ability to evaluate amateur outfielders for the pro game.
--
Red Sox Top Prospects
#01 Xander Bogaerts
#02 Matt Barnes
#03 Jackie Bradley
#04 Bryce Brentz
--
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05/20 07:54, , 1F
05/20 07:54, 1F