選秀偏好 大學生或高中生?
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/05/the_mlb_draft_c.php
一般的印象中好像都是說選大學生會是比較安全的賭注
大學生是低風險 高中生風險比較高 但是真的是這樣嗎?
這篇文章拿了2001-2003的第一輪來看看 到底是不是真的下注在大學生比較安全
他只有簡單的分養出來和養不出來 養出來普通先發和明星球員也都只是算養出來一個
下面只貼比率 詳細各個球員的分類在原文連結有
2001
野手
College Success Rate: 3/7 (43%)
High School Success Rate: 2/3 (67%)
投手
College Success Rate: 1/10 (10%)
High School Success Rate: 2/7 (29%)
2002
野手
College Success Rate: 2/5 (40%)
High School Success Rate: 6/8 (75%)
投手
College Success Rate: 4/8 (50%)
High School Success Rate: 4/7 (57%)
2003
野手
College Success Rate: 5/10 (50%)
High School Success Rate: 2/6 (33%)
投手
College Success Rate: 2/7 (29%)
High School Success Rate: 2/3 (67%)
上面的比例來看 只有2003野手的部分是大學生的成功率比較高 其他都是高中生樂勝
總計
野手
College Success Rate: 10/22 (45%)
High School Success Rate: 10/17 (59% - three undecided)
投手
College Success Rate: 7/25 (28% - one undecided)
High School Success Rate: 8/17 (47%)
這樣本的空間不大 不過大學投手的槓龜比例真的是太恐怖了
第一輪的野手大概有一半的機會可以養出像樣的東西
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 59.127.208.154
推
05/09 00:08, , 1F
05/09 00:08, 1F
推
05/09 00:10, , 2F
05/09 00:10, 2F
推
05/09 00:11, , 3F
05/09 00:11, 3F
→
05/09 00:11, , 4F
05/09 00:11, 4F
→
05/09 00:11, , 5F
05/09 00:11, 5F
→
05/09 00:12, , 6F
05/09 00:12, 6F
→
05/09 00:13, , 7F
05/09 00:13, 7F
推
05/09 16:55, , 8F
05/09 16:55, 8F
→
05/09 16:57, , 9F
05/09 16:57, 9F
推
05/10 05:09, , 10F
05/10 05:09, 10F
→
05/10 05:09, , 11F
05/10 05:09, 11F
→
05/10 05:10, , 12F
05/10 05:10, 12F
→
05/10 05:10, , 13F
05/10 05:10, 13F
→
05/10 12:42, , 14F
05/10 12:42, 14F
→
05/10 12:44, , 15F
05/10 12:44, 15F
→
05/10 12:44, , 16F
05/10 12:44, 16F
→
05/10 12:44, , 17F
05/10 12:44, 17F
推
05/11 02:59, , 18F
05/11 02:59, 18F
→
05/13 00:36, , 19F
05/13 00:36, 19F