Fw: [外絮] 活塞不該這麼爛的啊！

看板Pistons作者JoshSmith (賈詡。史密斯)時間10年前 (2014/01/17 21:56)推噓6(6推 0噓 21→)

留言27則, 6人參與討論串1/1

※ [本文轉錄自 NBA 看板 #1IsIFPAe ] 作者: idiotsmart (不吃蕃茄) 看板: NBA 標題: [外絮] 活塞不該這麼爛的啊！時間: Fri Jan 17 20:36:35 2014 The Pistons Shouldn’t Be This Bad 活塞不該這麼爛的啊！（部落格影音圖文好讀版：http://mola79321.pixnet.net/blog/post/345517943） Every fantasy baseball league has that owner who drafts too many players at one position, hoping to outsmart the group, hoard one asset type, and either make the roster work or find a killer trade down the line. (I may have done this with catchers once during a disastrous draft-day binge involving Russell Martin, Victor Martinez, and beer.) Sometimes the decision breaks right, but it usually ends up with diminishing returns — useless overlap leading to a losing trade. 每個FB（fantasy baseball）的聯盟裡都會有個經營者喜歡選很多同一個位置的球員，希望出此奇策能打敗對手。藉著積藏同類的資產，然後能一舉讓這個陣容成功，或是在未來搞到一筆搶劫交易。（我以前大概有在補手這位置過類似的事。某一次毀滅性的發狂選秀日，選了Russell Martin、Victor Martinez和beer。）有時候這個決定會成功，但大多數時結果都是效用報酬遞減。而最終因沒用的角色重疊導致被搶劫的交易。 The Pistons knew they were taking a risk when they signed Josh Smith to a massive four-year contract, slotting him alongside two cornerstone big men in Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. There were other alternatives, but Joe Dumars, flush with cap space for the first time since the 2009 offseason, went all-in for the biggest talent available. Smith has played both forward positions, but he has always worked better as a power forward. The fit with Monroe and Drummond would be awkward, but Detroit banked on sheer talent and smart coaching to win out in the end. 活塞隊自己知道和Josh Smith簽下四年大約，並把他安排在Greg Monroe和Andre Drummond這兩位建隊基石型的長人身邊時，是具有風險的決定。當時的確有其他的選項，但Joe Dumars決定對自由市場最具天分的球員梭哈，讓活塞在2009年休賽期間後首次讓球隊薪資碰頂。Smith兩個前鋒的位置都可以打，但他打大前鋒的表現一直以來都更好。這讓他和Monroe跟Drummond的組合看起來有些不適合，但活塞指望這些純粹的天份以及聰明的教練團能變出好的結果。 Halfway through the season, higher-ups with the Pistons have to be feeling queasy. Detroit is 16-22, clinging to a postseason spot in a putrid conference. The Pistons aren’t boring anymore, at least. They play at an above-average pace after a decade-plus as one of the league’s snails, Drummond dunks a lot, and there is League Pass appeal in the sheer wackiness of the roster — the lefties, the hairstyles, the horrible jump shots, Mo Cheeks sitting with fans in the stands during game play. 球季過一半了，活塞高層肯定有些不安。活塞現在戰績16勝22敗，在爛透的東區保有季後賽的席位。活塞隊比賽內容至少不再無聊。在當了十幾年的龜速球隊後，現在有著比聯盟平均高的比賽節奏、Drummond灌了一堆籃，而且還有吸引力十足的怪異陣容－左撇子、怪頭男、爛跳投、以及總教練Mo Cheeks在比賽途中和球迷同坐。 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7oOM0fcPB0

The Pistons might be watchable again, but they’re still bad, and they’re bad in a very disturbing way: The Smith/Monroe/Drummond trio has been a complete flop on both ends of the floor. Opponents have outscored the Pistons by 7.4 points per 48 minutes in the 716 minutes the three bigs have played together, per NBA.com. Of the 134 trios leaguewide who have logged at least 500 minutes, only two have registered a worse scoring margin — and they play for two franchises (Utah and Philly) that are not trying to win games. The damage has been worse on defense. Detroit has allowed 110.2 points per 100 possessions with the ultra-big group, a mark that would rank well below Utah’ s league-worst overall figure. Detroit is on pace to finish below the league average in both points scored and points allowed per possession for the fifth straight season; it is the only team to have pulled that dubious double in each of the last four seasons. Uh-oh. 活塞比賽或許再度抓住人的眼光，但他們依然是支爛隊，而且他們爛的讓人不悅。 Smith、Monroe、Drummond三巨頭在進攻和防守兩端都徹底的失敗了。根據NBA.com 數據，對手在三巨頭同時在場上時，每48分鐘能比活塞多得7.4分。目前聯盟134 組一起上場超過500分鐘的三人組，只有兩組人比這個分差還要爛，而這兩組人所在球隊分別是爵士和七六人，是兩支沒有在認真的贏比賽的球隊。防守是活塞最大的痛處。活塞在禁區三巨頭在場上時，讓對手每百回得分高達110.2，而這數字比聯盟最差的爵士防守效率還要低得多。活塞現在的比賽內容是邁向連續五季每回合得失分都比聯盟平均低的節奏。活塞也是近四季聯盟唯一支在攻守都差的球隊。我想寫個慘字。 The Big 3 Isn’t Working Out 三巨頭不合拍 The Pistons have been much better when separating the three bigs. Considering only lineups that have logged at least 10 minutes together, Detroit is a collective plus-29 in 435 minutes when only two of the three bigs are on the floor. The Monroe/Smith combination has been the best of the three permutations, but Dumars has also given it by far the most time to sort itself out. The Drummond/Monroe pairing has been the worst, and it has played most sparingly; only two lineups including the young bigs, but not Smith, have hit that 10-minute threshold. 活塞在這三巨頭分開打時表現要好的多。考慮有一起上場至少10分鐘的組合的話，活塞在三巨頭只有兩個在場上的435分鐘裡，總共是正29的表現。Monroe和Smith 的組合是三種配對中表現最佳的組合，但Dumars也給這組合最多的時間去磨合。 Drummond和Monroe的組合則是最糟的，而這組合在場上的時間也最少。有這兩人組而沒Smith的陣容，只有兩個剛好達到10分鐘門檻。 The triple-big thing just hasn’t worked, leaving Detroit in an awkward position as Monroe approaches restricted free agency. There is rampant speculation among league executives that the Pistons will look to deal Monroe ahead of next month’s trade deadline, but it’s just speculation. No one has heard a peep from the Pistons yet. But other teams know the results have been poor, and that Monroe’s agent, David Falk, will push for the max and work hard to maneuver Monroe to the team willing to pay him the most. Smith has three years left on his contract after this season. Drummond is a keeper, but would the Pistons really be willing to commit something like $42 million per season, at least once Drummond’s rookie deal expires, to a foundation that simply doesn’t work? The Pistons appear to be preaching patience with a very young roster, even amid an endless montage of disastrous fourth quarters. 禁區三巨頭的組合沒有磨出個成績來，這讓活塞隊陷入尷尬的狀況，因為Monroe 即將成為受限制自由球員。聯盟間有一堆人在推測活塞將在下個月交易截止前尋找交易Monroe的方案。不過這也只是推測而已，還沒人聽到任何關於活塞方面的消息。不過其他球隊都知道三巨頭的成績很糟，同時Monroe的經紀人David Falk 將會努力找到願意付最多錢給Monroe的球隊。Smith在這季結束後還有三年合約才到期。Drummond值得留下來，但在Drummond的菜鳥約到時，活塞願意付一季至少四千兩百萬美金，給一個組無法成功的建隊基石嗎？活塞隊似乎對著群非常年輕的陣容保有耐心，即使第四節悲劇不斷上演依舊如此。 That the worst problems with the all-big group have come on defense might provide hope, if you squint at them in just the right light. Young teams tend to struggle on defense, and the Pistons’ centerpiece rim protector is one of the youngest players in the league. Perhaps they might grow as a collective, provided Cheeks can coach them up properly. 如果你能用正確的角度來審視他們的話，禁區三巨頭組合最糟的問題在於防守這點，這或許能提供一線解決問題的希望。年輕球隊在防守上容易掙扎，而活塞的禁區保護中樞是聯盟中最年輕的球員之一。或許他們能一起成長，假設Cheeks可以適當的教導他們的話。 The early returns are discouraging. Most rotation guards and wings are prone to backdoor cuts, and the one with the most potential on defense, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, is in the very early stages of learning NBA-level rotations. Brandon Jennings has dialed up his effort level recently from “comatose” to “generally aware of his surroundings,” but he’s always been loose with his fundamentals and disappointing with his effort. Smith is a smart defender who can protect the rim, but he’s slipped a bit this season, and he’s not quick enough to guard speedy wings. 目前的結果是令人失望的。面對防守輪轉時，多數的後衛和側翼球員傾向於開後門空切，而活塞最有防守潛力的球員Kentavious Caldwell-Pope還正開始學習NBA 等級的輪轉。Brandon Jennings近來提高了防守質量，從「恍神」變成「大致上有在注意周遭狀況」。不過，一直以來他對於基本功都不太在乎，而且防守也不太努力。Smith是個聰明的防守者，他可以保護禁區。但這季的他稍稍退步些，而且他的速度有點跟不上快速的側翼球員。 Monroe and Drummond have great hands, fantastic for the pickpocket steals that fuel Detroit’s high theft rate, but their footwork and decision-making are poor. Monroe’s issues are well documented. He inspires zero fear at the basket, and he’s not the quickest cat. He’s certainly not quick enough to execute a scheme that often asks him to jump out aggressively against pick-and-rolls, chasing little point guards 25 feet from the hoop. Monroe和Drummond都有雙快手，有著驚人的抄截能力，讓活塞有著高抄截率。但他們的防守腳步和決策能力相當糟糕。Monroe的問題非常清楚。他無法給予對手任何封阻威脅，而且他並不靈敏。戰術要求他積極的在檔拆後奔出去離籃框25呎處，追逐那些小個子控衛，但他並沒有那個速度執行這些防守戰術。 Drummond is already a fearsome shot-blocker, and he projects as an elite defensive force. But his footwork and awareness are dicey — not unexpected, given his age. He might be the only player in the league this season to fall head over heels for Jonas Valanciunas’s pump fake. Drummond已經是個令人害怕的火鍋好手，而且目標成為頂尖防守球員。但他的防守腳步以及觀念還很嫩。由於他的年紀，是也不意外啦。他大概是本季唯一一位被Jonas Valanciunas的假動作騙慘的球員。 There is just carnage, everywhere. The Pistons are routinely giving up two of the juiciest shots in the league — baskets off of cuts, and corner 3s. About 8.3 percent of enemy possessions end with a player shooting (or drawing a foul) via a basket cut, the sixth-highest share in the league, per Synergy Sports. Only the Sixers have allowed more corner 3s, and opponents have hit a sizzling 41 percent of those short triples against Detroit, per NBA.com. 對手完全在屠殺活塞隊。活塞一慣的放掉聯盟最甜的兩種得分方式，空切得分和底角三分。根據Synergy Sports，大約有8.3%的對手進攻權是終於空切後的出手或賺犯規，而這是聯盟第六高的數字。根據NBA.com的數據，只有七六人比活塞給予對方更多底角三分機會，而對手的底角三分命中率是火熱的41%。 Good ball handlers who know when Monroe is going to hedge out far from the basket on the pick-and-roll can split him, or just go around him, with ease. From there, it’s a simple matter of driving into the lane, drawing help, and finding the guy with the easiest shot. One particular sort of “cut” is killing Detroit over and over: Ball handlers run a pick-and-roll, get into the lane, and then drop off an easy pass to the non-screening big man lurking along the baseline. Here’s a textbook example, via Paul George: 好的控球者瞭解當Monroe在防檔拆遠離籃框來阻擋持球者時，可以輕鬆的鑽過去，或是輕鬆的繞過他。過了他後，就看你要切入籃下、吸引幫忙防守，然後找到有輕鬆出手機會的隊友。某個一直以來都對活塞造成重傷的「空切」就是控球者打檔拆、切進籃下，然後傳個簡單小球給埋伏在底線的非檔人大個子。以下是典型的範例，主演是Paul George： http://ppt.cc/O9PR http://ppt.cc/JqTb http://ppt.cc/yzSl Miscommunication appears rampant. There are times when multiple Pistons involved in defending the same play seem to have no insight into what the other guy is going to do. Take this Gerald Green drive from Detroit’s fall-from-ahead win over the weekend against Phoenix: 溝通不良的問題不斷發生。常常看到多名活塞球員在防守一樣的球員，他們似乎互相不知道隊友到底要做什麼。以下影片當例子，是活塞在周末對上太陽隊的差點被逆轉的比賽中，Gerald Green其中的一個切入： http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-IbMq4I_tI

Caldwell-Pope, guarding Green, positions himself between Green and the screener — an indication KCP believes the Pistons should try to force Green away from the pick, and toward the left baseline. But Monroe, guarding the screener, lunges up above the pick toward midcourt, as if he’s expecting KCP will allow Green to use the pick — making it Monroe’s responsibility to cut Green off up top. Whoopsie. Caldwell-Pope對位防守Green，他的站位在Green和檔人者之間。這表示KCP相信隊友應該迫使Green遠離單檔，並把他逼到左邊底線。但負責防檔人者的Monroe卻往中場衝過檔人者身旁，似乎是認為KCP要引誘Green使用檔拆。若這麼做，檔柱 Green的路線就是Monroe責任。搞不清楚狀況，糗！ And once facing a crisis, Detroit’s rotations are rarely clean enough to put it out. Take this sequence against the Nets, which begins with Joe Johnson and Kevin Garnett running a pick-and-roll on the right side — a play on which Detroit, apparently by design, allows Johnson to drive toward the middle so Drummond can hedge out hard and meet him there: 一旦遇到防守危機，活塞隊的防守輪轉鮮少能交代清楚並解決危機。以這場對籃網其中一段當例子。一開始是Joe Johnson和Kevin Garnett在右邊跑一個檔拆戰術，而活塞明顯的設計好要讓Johnson往中路切，以便Drummond能出來阻擋他的路線： http://ppt.cc/Y4xD That opens up an easy pass from Johnson to Garnett, who slips down toward the right baseline, drawing a rotation from Monroe off of Mirza Teletovic on the right side. 這讓Johnson能輕鬆傳給Garnett，而Garnett則往右邊底線沉退。如此一來便吸引 Monroe輪轉來防他，離開自己對位的Mirza Teletovic。 http://ppt.cc/6KHN All’s (kind of) fine so far! Except Caldwell-Pope, who struggles with this kind of on-the-fly team rotation, allows Teletovic to just cut right by him, catch a pass from KG, and lay the ball in: 目前為止都還OK！除了Caldwell-Pope外，因為他不擅於這種不停機的團隊防守輪轉，讓Teletovic能直接從他身旁空手切，並接到KG傳球上籃得分： http://ppt.cc/kY2l This kind of stuff happens all the time. The Pistons are just not able to maintain any on-a-string coherence. Drummond has to help on this disastrous pick-and-roll, but no one behind him “helps the helper”: 這種狀況隨時可見。活塞隊就是無法將防守連結保持在不失控的狀態。Drummond 必須來為這個悲劇的檔拆防守擦屁股，但在之後就沒人來罩他了。 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGO_1aLY79g

Anyone wanna rotate from this weird triple-team of Goran Dragic in the post and find P.J. Tucker in the corner? Anyone? 有任何人要在詭異的Goran Dragic低位三夾後，輪轉去防角落的P.J. Tucker嗎？有嗎？ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUQgKryG4Q4

Why is Jennings pestering Valanciunas behind the 3-point arc, leaving Kyle Lowry open for a 3-pointer he’ll make about a couple of seconds after this screenshot? 為什麼Jennings要在三分線和Valanciunas糾纏，而讓Kyle Lowry在之後的幾秒有個三分空檔呢？ http://ppt.cc/aWfD How Can They Fix It? 如何補破網？ There are possible solutions, but testing them out in real time, amid a playoff “race,” is always tough for a coach. Cheeks should probably be staggering minutes more, and he began doing so over the weekend, when the three bigs averaged just 12 minutes together per game — down from their season average of about 19 minutes. He might want to let the Drummond/Monroe combo stretch a bit more without Smith; Detroit was solid defensively when those two shared the floor last season, but Cheeks has barely used that alignment. In the bigger picture, he might tinker with a more conservative defensive style that keeps his big men closer to the paint — an imitation of what Indiana, Chicago, San Antonio, Golden State, and others have done — but such a revamp midseason is difficult. 的確有幾個解決方案，不過在比賽中試驗，還要「競爭」季後賽名額隊教練來說永遠是件困難的事。Cheeks可能該多多交錯安排三巨頭的時間，而他在周末比賽時做了這件事。把三巨頭同時在場上的場均19分鐘，減少到12分鐘左右。他可能要在沒Smith時，多用Drummond和Monroe的雙人組。活塞上季在這兩人同時在場上時防守算紮實，不過Cheeks幾乎不太用這組合。更宏觀的說，他可能試著用更保守的防守策略來補救，讓大個子球員在禁區裡保護籃框。類似溜馬、公牛、馬刺、勇士和其他球隊的防守策略，但這種季中改變並不容易。 Detroit is big, slow, and clunky, but it shouldn’t be this bad. And if it remains so, it will raise painful questions about Monroe’s future on the team. He’s a bit of a liability on defense, but he’s a freaking beast on offense and the glass. His quick hands produce legitimate benefits on defense (namely, steals), he cleans the glass, and he might function well in a different system, aside a top rim protector — perhaps Drummond in a couple of years. You don’t deal a big guy with these skills, at age 23, just because you overpaid for an older guy who plays the same position. The Pistons could have about $12 million in cap space this summer, even factoring in Monroe’s cap hold, and they could have something close to max-level cap room in the summer of 2015 — even if they re-sign Monroe in the interim. Only the first year of Drummond’s next contract will overlap with Smith’s deal, and Jennings’s contract will have expired by then. Detroit’s cap sheet is pretty lean. 活塞隊陣容又大又遲緩，不過表現不該這麼爛。而且如果持續低迷的話，Monroe 痛苦的未來去留問題便會被提起。他在防守端對球隊是個負擔，但他在進攻端和抓籃板上是隻兇猛的野獸。他的快手在防守端對球隊有加分作用（也就是抄截啦）、他能抓好防守籃板。同時，他若和一個頂尖禁區保護者同隊（可能是幾年後的 Drummond），並在不同的體系下打球的話，或許能表現的更好。你不會把一個才 23歲，而且有著這些技巧的球員交易掉。只因為在同位置簽下一位年紀稍長且不值這筆錢的球員。即使你把Monroe的薪資額度考慮進去，活塞在這個夏天依然可能有1千2百萬左右的薪資空間。即便在這對期間內簽下Monroe，他們在2015年還是有將近頂薪的空間。只有Drummond下一紙合約的第一年會和Smith的合約重疊，而同時Jennings的合約會到期。活塞的薪資表很有操作空間。 The crazier solution would be to cut bait on Smith immediately via trade. That will be hard, perhaps almost impossible. Detroit would have to include a first-round pick in some deals, and it’s already out one to the Bobcats — a pick that is top-eight protected this year, meaning Detroit only keeps the pick if it falls within the top eight. Detroit has no interest in tanking to keep that pick, at least for now. 最瘋狂的解決方案是透過交易馬上放棄Smith。這麼做會非常困難，可以說是不可能的任務。活塞必須要在交易包內放個第一輪選秀權，而活塞隊已經給山貓一個一輪選秀簽。這支簽是今年的前八保護選秀權，代表除非活塞名次掉到選秀前八，否則他們無法保有這個選秀權。至少目前活塞沒有想要擺爛保留這支籤的意思。 The other solution is to find a team desperate to win now and unload Smith for a less onerous contract. One off-the-wall suggestion a few NBA folks on other teams have mentioned to me in recent days: What if the Pistons offered Smith to the Nets for Brook Lopez? The Nets get a player who can help them now in exchange for a player who can’t, and who has suffered chronic foot injuries. Detroit gets a guy whose deal might expire two years before Smith, making him a more tradable asset going forward. You can build other deals involving some of the league’s other unpleasant contracts, but it doesn’t help that two teams that once had (improbable) postseason ambitions — the Lakers and Pelicans — have seen those hopes almost totally extinguished because of injuries and (in L.A.’s case) a general lack of talent. 另一個解決方法則是找一支渴求贏球的球隊，然後擺脫掉Smith以換取一個沒這麼麻煩的合約。幾位他隊的NBA同仁在這幾天曾和我提到一個瘋狂的建議。如果活塞把Smith交易到籃網換取Brook Lopez如何呢？籃網可以用一位現在無法幫助他們的球員。換到一位現在能幫他們贏球的球員。而且丟掉的球員有著長期的腳傷。活塞得到一位比Smith的約早兩年到期的球員，這讓他在未來更有交易價值。你可以試著建構一些交易案，把其他有著煩人合約的球隊拉進來。但都不會對湖人和鵜鶘這兩支球隊有所幫助。這兩支球隊曾抱著季後賽希望，而如今卻幾乎破滅。就因為傷病和（對湖人來說）陣容缺乏天份。 Such a trade would out of the box, and almost certainly won’t happen, but it ’s not lunacy. Smith is a good player. I’ve been a fan for years. But he has slipped a bit this season, and he has too often been a drain on Detroit’ s offense — particularly late in games. He’s shooting 25 percent from deep, and he’s on pace for more than 300 3-point attempts. Precisely zero players have ever shot that many 3s and shot them so poorly. 這類交易是突發奇想的，而且幾乎不可能會發生。不過倒也不是瘋了的想法。 Smith是位好球員。我一直都是他的球迷。但他這季退步了些，而且對活塞的進攻常常是個負擔。尤其是在比賽後段時。他的三分命中率是25%，而且他的出手數在季末時可能超過300次。在歷史上沒有一位球員投這麼多三分但命中率比他糟的。 It’s probably too early to execute such a drastic change, but the Pistons should at least be thinking about it. They can afford to be somewhat patient. The East is horrible, and Detroit has enough talent to work things out, improve organically, and become a feisty playoff team. But the ultra-big look hasn’t gotten off to a good start, and it might be unworkable. 要做這麼大的改變或許還太早，但活塞至少該思考這個可能性。他們的確能再有點耐心。東區糟透了，而活塞有足夠的天賦能搞定一切、能有組織性的變好，而且能在季後賽有活躍表現。但超大陣容開際運作不佳，而且可能無法順利運轉。原文網址－ http://tinyurl.com/kda9ul5 心得：活塞隊這季目前為止的表現真的令人失望尤其是夏天時Smith可以說是只輸Dwight Howard的大魚如今卻沒有對活塞給予太大幫助若不考慮到交易的話，活塞一定要想辦法讓禁區三巨頭能一起打球當然錯開來用是一個方法想當初熱火一開始LeBron James和Wade半場進攻打法稍稍有衝突時，也是盡量將時間錯開來不過這畢竟不是長久之計。活塞如何將自己禁區優勢放大才是該考慮的課題。防守方面，這篇文都點出了重點看比賽會對於活塞這種禁區陣容，但禁區防守這麼卻這麼破感到意外很顯然的是防守溝通上有嚴重的問題比起改變進攻打法，或許先加強防守這環是個好方法。在紐約雙雄稍稍崛起之後，希望活塞這支季前人期待的球隊能注入一股活水到東區啊！（還有交易後的騎士也希望稍稍有起色） -- 新手NBA外電翻譯+數據分析部落格；內有網誌好讀版 http://mola79321.pixnet.net/blog 歡迎來討論!!! -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.161.247.172

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