[外電] Hollinger's take on the Suns. 看Holl …

看板PHX-Suns作者jeromee ( 迷途小書僮)時間15年前 (2010/09/29 14:02)推噓26(26推 0噓 10→)

留言36則, 24人參與討論串1/1

一、前言：有鑑於新賽季即將到來，相關外電資料將會大量產出。本人在此先篩選擇優外電譯出，可希望大家有空可以翻一兩篇文章造福板友。因為板友西瓜固定會翻譯記者Paul Coro的文章，而此本人就不重複，選一些個人較感興趣文章翻譯。首先挑選的是ESPN的數據專家Hollinger對太陽的新賽季觀察。Hollinger頗有來頭，是相當有名的數據專家，典型的數據狂，習慣一切都從數據來解讀事物。文章網址： http://0rz.tw/FYPCX 36樓（此為付費文章，故附上外國網友轉貼文章）不過他對太陽的預測都不準，你知道嗎，首先他去年在上賽季初預言太陽38勝季後賽第8 種子；而在西區決賽中，是唯二預測太陽會贏湖人的ESPN專家（4-3）。當然板友都知道，完全不準。哪你翻他的文章幹嘛？很簡單，他講東我們太陽就會是西，一切從反面來看即可，OK吧！不過這只是說笑罷了。我個人認為數據分析有他的可觀之處，只是籃球還有一些足以影響比賽的重要因素無法量化，例如上記太陽引以為傲的團隊的契合度（或譯化學效應）。所以此篇文章仍值得一看。一開始先講結論： Prediction: 38-44, 2nd in Pacific Division, 10th in Western Conference 38勝44敗，太平洋組第二位，西區第十位。「未」進季後賽。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X！感謝你還看的下去，我們來看看他講些什麼。 Biggest Weakness: Defensive Rebounding 最大弱點：防守籃板 The Suns were awful on the defensive boards last season and will be truly horrific this time around. Want to know who had Phoenix's top two defensive rebound rates last season? Lou Amundson (19.9) and Amare Stoudemire (18.9). Both are gone. No other Sun was above 18, and Lopez, if he gets more minutes as expected, won't be a huge factor at only 15.6. 太陽上賽季的防守籃板已經夠糟了，但本季會更慘。你知道嗎？太陽走了Lou Amundson(19.9)和Amare Stoudemire (18.9)兩個隊上防守籃板率最好的球員。而剩下的球員中，沒有一個防守籃板率超過18，即使是Lopez也只有15.6不起眼數據而已。 Instead, the minutes at power forward will go to Warrick (13.9), Turkoglu (15.2), Dudley (9.8) and Earl Clark (12.3). Childress is a good rebounder for a wing player, so the Suns will make up a bit of the deficit there, but that may be further offset if Grant Hill shows any decline. He's 38 years old but played 81 games last season and had the team's fourth-best defensive rebound rate at 16.3. 而其他球員的數據為Warrick (13.9), Turkoglu (15.2), Dudley (9.8) and Earl Clark (12.3)。 Childress的籃板對鋒衛球員來說是很出色的，太陽有可能藉Childress來美化難看的籃板數據。但如果老將Grant Hill顯出疲態時，太陽的籃板數據會更慘。Grant Hill已經38歲了，而他竟然還可以出賽81場並且擁有隊上第四位的防守籃板率。 Amundson and Stoudemire last season combined to grab little more than 19 percent of available misses from the power forward spot. Their replacements this season are likely to end up around 14 percent. That's a 5 percent decline in defensive rebound rate, which is a massive drop. This will be partly mitigated by the "diminishing returns" phenomenon -- some defensive rebounds would have been grabbed by another defensive player who was right there, so the other players on the court will see slight upticks. 在上賽季中Amundson and Stoudemire共同在大前鋒位置拉下19％多一點的籃板，而他們本季的後繼者約只有14％的籃板率。前後相差約5％，不可謂之不大。不過這落差可部分藉由「報酬遞減法則」來減輕，因為不可能所有籃板都是少數人在抓，總是會有一些籃板會剛好被其他球員「撿」到，所以太陽本季鋒衛球員的籃板率會略有提升。 Nonetheless, the Suns' defensive rebound rate figures to be somewhere in the high 60s. With Golden State upgrading its rebounding over the summer, Phoenix's figure is likely to be the worst figure in the league by a wide margin. 儘管太陽的防守籃板率數據跟60年代比起來算高的，但當連金州勇士加入David Lee提升他們的籃板能力後，太陽的防守籃板率數據很可能是聯盟中最慘的球隊。 Outlook 展望 The Suns replaced an All-Star with a mishmash of spare parts; it's naïve to think this won't affect them considerably. While Phoenix retains several of the elements that made it so successful last season -- devastating shooters, incredible chemistry and, of course, Nash's laser passing -- the other key to their system was the threat of Stoudemire flying down the lane for a dunk. Warrick and/or Lopez aren't nearly as intimidating in that role, which may reduce the openings available for the others. 太陽採用多個位置的混合補強來取代全明星球員阿罵的離去，並天真的以為球隊的競爭力不會降低。當太陽還保有上賽季他們賴以成功的要素－如犀利無比的命中率，難以置信的化學效應，還有Nash的穿心妙傳。但別忘了，另一個關鍵因素－阿罵的禁區威嚇力絕非Warrick 和 Lopez可以比擬，這將造成其他位置的空檔變少。 Regardless, the Suns will be one of the league's top offenses, just not at the historically great level of a season ago. Meanwhile, they're likely to take a major step back defensively. Stoudemire was derided for his defense but he was more average than awful; certainly he's a better interior defender than Turkoglu or Warrick. 無論如何，太陽還是會擁有聯盟頂級的進攻能力，但已經無法像之前足以名列青史幾個賽季哪麼好。同時，太陽的內線防守會更糟糕。雖然防守常常被訕笑，但阿罵還算是比用眼睛防守還高上好幾級的球員，還且我敢保證阿罵的內線防守將比Turkoglu 或 Warrick好。 Additionally, the Suns are going to get absolutely creamed on the defensive glass. Since they don't force turnovers either and lost nearly half of last season's shot blocks with the departure of Stoudemire and Amundson, it's hard to see how they'll stay out of the bottom five in defensive efficiency. 而且太陽的防守將會像紙糊的一樣，既不能製造對手失誤，而隊上最好兩個火鍋手又已離去，被帶走一半火鍋數的太陽將是在我防守效率榜上倒數五名的固定隊伍。 Organizationally, the Sarver administration also has taken enough head-scratching turns to make one wonder what's next. Sarver's reputation for tight-fisted operations only increased after Kerr and Stoudemire walked this summer, so don't expect any midseason deals to save the Suns from their likely plight. 從制服組來說，Sarver意外的成立多頭馬車的管理架構，令人困惑他的下一步棋要如何走。而且在Kerr 和 Stoudemire為金錢的因素離開太陽後，他聞名的吝嗇威望再度增加。所以太陽迷不要期待會有什麼季中交易來挽救太陽隊的頹勢。 Yes, they'll still have great chemistry and they'll still score a ton of points. The only difference is that on most nights, the opponent will score more. 好！雖然太陽隊還是有良好的化學反應與一如往常的取高分能力。但我不看好太陽的理由就是，在大部分的晚上比數是其他隊201 ：太陽200 。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 小結：各位板友可以思考一個問題，上賽季明明在各界一片不看好的情況下我們還是進入了西區決賽。數十位ESPN專家在去年被狠狠打臉後，為什麼今年還是一致看衰太陽無法進入季後賽？其實原因在這篇文章都有提到。今年這支太陽的具體狀況應該要等訓練營過後才會明朗，屆時是不是想這些專家講的一樣，我們都可以一一來檢視。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.132.148.137

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