[外電] Prospectus Today: So Wang He's Right …
※ [本文轉錄自 CMWang 看板]
作者: soaringfish (翔魚) 看板: CMWang
標題: Re: [外電] Prospectus Today: So Wang He's Right …
時間: Wed Jul 11 21:42:59 2007
※ 引述《leddy (耿秋)》之銘言：
: 原文
: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6438
: July 10, 2007
: Prospectus Today
: So Wang He's Right, and Mr. Roberts
: by Joe Sheehan
本日介紹：王很正點，Roberts也是
: Given that it’s Free Week, I guess I can put my intended catch-up Unfiltered
: posts into this space. For the next four days, we’ll be running everything
: here at Baseball Prospectus free, giving non-subscribers a taste of what they
: can get for about a dime a day. Tell a friend, and help us grow!
由於本周有空，我想我可以把接下來要發表的新文章擺在這邊。接下來四天，我們會讓這
邊的東西暫時免費，以讓未訂閱的朋友們體驗一下每天花一角錢就能享受到的東西。
告訴你的朋友們，然後讓我們成長！
: I spent Sunday afternoon in Box C342 in the left-field grandstand at Yankee
: Stadium, thanks to some friends’ inability to use their tickets. This doesn’
: t sound that significant, but it is; it was just the second Yankee game I’d
: attended since 1995. After enduring the 1980s while growing up in a Mets
: town, suffering through the managerial turnstile and perennial August
: collapses and the 1986 World Series, I moved away to Los Angeles and watched
: the team that was a joke during my youth become a dynasty again. I
: experienced the four World Championships in five years and the 12 consecutive
: postseason appearances from a distance.
由於某些朋友不克到場，我在洋基球場左外野C342包廂度過我的周日下午。這聽起來沒什
麼，但是這是我1995之後參加的第二場洋基比賽。80年代在個挺大都會的地方長大，之後
制服組常出問題而一再在八月崩盤，最後在1986年世界大賽後我就搬到了洛杉磯，看著
我幼時很歡樂的一支隊伍再次建立起王朝。在另一岸的我，五年內就看他們得了四次世界
大賽冠軍，並且竟然連續十二年進入了季後賽。
: So walking back into the ballpark was exciting and strange all at once. First
: of all, the sheer size of the crowd was a new thing. After all, when I was
: coming to the Stadium regularly, you could decide to go to a game at 6 p.m.,
: show up at 6:30, and be in a Main Reserve seat along the baselines for $15.
: Now, you can’t get into the lower bowl for less than $50, and you can’t get
: between the bases without a credit check and a double-digit Q rating.
所以回到這座球場是件令人興奮但又詭異的事情。首先，這邊群眾的數量完全不同。以前
我常來時，你可以六點再決定要去看球，六點半到球場，之後用15元美金在壘線邊的座位
坐下。現在呢，我根本沒法用50美金以內的價錢進到內野。並且，要坐到最接近球場的位
置還有特別的要求呢。(有關球場部分大概說明，詳情有請強者補充XD)
: The entire feel of the place was different as well. When I was getting to
: 15-20 games a summer as a teenager, the team was competitive, but not
: necessarily successful. Now, there’s definitely an arrogance about the
: place, a sense that this is where championships happen; there’s almost a
: sense of entitlement. I’ve often argued that people who say Yankee fans are
: arrogant and spoiled have no frame of reference, that they forget the
: 1982-1993 period that shaped half a generation, myself included. After one
: day at the ballpark, I have a better understanding of the perception. It’s
: not something I can necessarily quantify, just a sense, from the copy on
: T-shirts to the stadium signage to the way the crowd reacts to events.
整個場地的感覺也不同了。當我十幾歲時一個暑假看了15-20場比賽，而這支球隊有競爭力
，卻並非一定很成功。但現在，這裡卻瀰漫著一股自負，一種這邊就該出冠軍的意識。
我有時會跟一些人爭論，他們說現在的洋基迷太過自大並且被寵壞了，缺乏一股緊密的組
織。但我會說，1982-1993這段時間塑造了半個世代的人，包含我自己。直到在球場度過
一天後，我大概就能理解那種概念。這不是一種可以量化的感覺，但就是一種從T-shirt，
到球場標誌和現場球迷隨著活動的一致動作，所傳達出來的感覺。
: The game itself was great for Yankee fans, but didn’t lend itself to much
: analysis. The Yankees got three-run homers from Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano,
: and Alex Rodriguez en route to waltzing to a 12-0 win. Chien-Ming Wang was
: effective, scattering five singles in 6 1/3 innings, striking out three and
: walking two. My seats weren’t the best ones for breaking him down, but from
: where I sat, he appeared to throw two fastballs, one straight and one with
: sink, almost exclusively. He got 14 groundball outs, and I’m hard-pressed to
: remember any balls that the Angels drove off of him.
這場比賽對洋基迷來說很棒，但並不需要什麼分析。洋基靠著松井.Cano和A-Rod的三顆三
分彈拿下12-0的勝利。小王效率很高，在6 1/3局中只被打了五支一壘打，三振三個，保送
兩個。我的位置不是很能看清球路變化，但我看到了他兩顆直球，一顆是直的，但另外一
顆則有種獨特的下沉尾勁。他拿到了14次滾球出局，而我很難記得天使打者確實咬中了他
哪顆球。
: Wang is a fascinating topic, as he’s now up to 65 career starts and 438 2/3
: innings with a career strikeout rate that’s actually slightly below his
: career ERA, 3.51 to 3.67. He’s striking out more batters in 2007 than he has
: before, but his 4.14 K/9 is still well below par for a pitcher in 2007, the
: kind of rate that would normally have us clucking over his imminent demise.
小王是個迷人的主題，由於他現在生涯65場先發就吃下了438 2/3局，卻只有一個略低於
ERA的三振率--3.51(K/9)比3.67(ERA)。他今年三振了比較多人，但他的4.14三振率依然
低於今年的平均--而這樣的比率本該讓人等待著他的墜落的。
: Wang, however, is not a soft tosser, a pitcher who works at max effort just
: to survive--his fastball is generally clocked in the low 90s, and he touches
: 94 with it. He works in the strike zone almost the way Greg Maddux did in his
: prime, getting early-count outs on contact. Wang’s career mark of 3.39 P/PA
: is very low because of this.
但是小王卻是個強硬的剛球投手，用全力來求取生存。他的速球通常在145-150km左右，
而今天達到151。他幾乎用Maddux的方式在好球帶裡運作，讓打者擊球以提早獲取出局。
他生涯平均面對每位打者只用了相當低的3.39球即是如此來的。
: I’ve started to think of Wang, to an extent, as the pitching version of
: hitters such as Ichiro Suzuki, Don Mattingly, or Kirby Puckett. These hitters
: never drew a lot of walks in their primes, because when they swung the bat—
: which they did with some frequency—they would make solid contact and put the
: ball in play. They didn’t work a lot of deep counts in part because of their
: contact rates. Wang is the same way; his strikeout and walk rates reflect his
: presence in the strike zone. It works for Wang because the action on his
: pitches prevents solid contact, and in particular, power. Wang has allowed
: just 27 home runs in his career, and just six this season. His career ISO
: allowed of .104 is low for a pitcher in the modern game.
我把小王類比做投手版的鈴木一朗、Don Mattingly、以及Kirby Puckett。這些打者並不
撿太多保送，而是積極出棒，確實擊球，然後打進界內。由於他們的contact能力，他們並
不等待太多球。小王也是同樣的道理，他的K/9跟BB/9反映出他把球塞進好球帶的特質。
小王同時用他的球種來避免被紮實擊中--同時也降低打者power的威脅。小王生涯只被敲了
27支HR，本季只有六支。他生涯面對打者的ISO(按：長打率減打擊率)只有.104，就現代
投手而言是相當低的。
: So while Wang is not striking out many hitters, he’s also not allowing walks
: or power, which means to beat him, you have to string hits together. His high
: groundball rate (2.92 career G/F) also leads to a number of double plays
: turned, wiping out the singles he inevitably gives up. He controls the
: running game--basestealers are 24-for-43 against him in three years. His
: batting average on balls in play has been lower than the league average, and
: lower than the Yankee average, but not by a lot (.270, .293, and .280 in his
: three seasons). Wang may be one of the pitchers who exerts influence over his
: own BABIP, although it still may be too early to make that determination.
所以當小王不三振那麼多打者時，他也不讓打者保送上壘或是發揮power，也就是說，
你要擊垮他的話，必須要讓安打串聯起來。他的高滾飛比(生涯2.92)也導致許多的DP，
經常抵銷掉一堆一壘打。他能夠控制住壘上跑者--三年內他被盜43次壘只有24次成功。
他的BABIP(按：界內球的被打擊率，經常用來反映防守捧場程度，也代表著一定程度的
運氣。)比聯盟平均低，也低於洋基隊平均，但都低得不多。(三年內各是.270、.293、
.280) 他大概是能發揮影響力蓋過他自己BABIP的一名投手--儘管現在說這些還太早。
: If Wang were left-handed and missing ten MPH on his fastball, we’d lump him
: in with the Tommy John class of pitchers. Instead, as he is, we’re not sure
: what to do with him. It’s fair to say that merely looking at his strikeout
: rate and making a clucking sound isn’t going to suffice. It appears Wang is
: the exception, a right-handed pitcher who isn’t going to strike out many
: hitters, but who does everything so well that he’ll be successful in spite
: of that.
如果小王是左撇子並且少了10mph的球速的話，我們會把他歸類為Tommy John一類的人。
但是現在他並不是，所以我們也不知該怎麼評斷他。假如只看他的三振率而認為他會很
慘的話並不適當。看來小王就是那個例外--一個不三振很多打者的右投，但是將能成功，
由於他能做好所有其他事。
[Tommy John生涯數據：http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnto01.shtml]
: ---
: A week ago, I wrote this:
: If the players and the fans alight on the same starter, the players’ second
: choice goes, even if he’s a marginal All-Star. Shea Hillenbrand made a team
: this way once, and this year, Brian Roberts owes his spot to this process.
: Sensible roster construction would allow Orlando Cabrera, clearly more
: deserving than Roberts, to make the team, even if it would mean someone plays
: a few innings out of position.
一周前，我寫了這些：
如果其他球員跟球迷都不爽某個球員的話，那麼他大概就得走人--儘管他是個前明星也
一樣。Shea Hillenbrand之前就逼球隊做了這檔事，而今年Brian Roberts由於這個動作
得到了他現在的位置。
: This was, as it turns out, a really stupid thing to write. Many, many, many
: people e-mailed me to note that Brian Roberts was eighth in the AL in VORP
: (at the time; he’s 10th this morning), and that he was by far the best
: second baseman in the league. They also pointed out that he was,
: statistically, having a better year than Cabrera, outpointing him on a rate
: basis and in overall value.
寫了這些東西，最後顯示出是我在耍笨。好多好多的讀者寄e-mail來告訴我Roberts今年
在美聯的VORP(按：選手貢獻度)是第八名(今早掉到第十)，並且是目前聯盟中最佳的二壘
手。他們也指出數據上，他整體而言都贏過Cabrera。
: The readers, as usual, were completely correct. I simply whiffed on Roberts,
: missing just how great a season he was having. I can chalk it up to my
: current displacement, the fact that I haven’t been watching as much baseball
: as usual and have been distracted by a move and a housing search, but really,
: those are weak excuses. If a guy is the tenth-best player in the league, I
: need to know that, and if I don’t, I deserve to be slammed.
讀者們，一如往常地，是完全正確的。我就忽略了Roberts，忽視了他有個多棒的賽季。
我可以辯解我最近沒看那麼多球，並且懶得在家裡做點搜尋。但是，這些都是軟弱的理由
。如果一個球員是聯盟中的第十好球員，而我不知道，那我活該被打死。
: What’s amusing is that when I wrote about my All-Star ballot, I mentioned
: that I wished I’d voted for Roberts. I know how good he’s been the last few
: seasons, the class of a fairly weak crop. I voted for Ian Kinsler, which was
: a mistake, one I acknowledged when I wrote the column. So I screwed up on
: both ends of this discussion.
很玄的是當我討論全明星投票時，我提到說我該投給Roberts。我知道他這幾季是如何的--
排在一堆不怎樣的新秀中。我投給了Ian Kinsler，當我寫專欄時就發現這是個錯誤。
所以這個討論似乎前後呼應了。XD
: Now, it is worth pointing out that at the time I filled out my ballot, Brian
: Roberts wasn’t having nearly as great a year as he is now. He had a poor
: April, and that month was dragging down his overall numbers well into May.
: Just to pick a date, I filled out my All-Star ballot on May 9 at that night’
: s Angels/Indians game. This is what Roberts has hit since then (thanks,
: Baseball-Reference.com): .348/.429/.457 in 53 games, and going 15-for-17 on
: the bases.
現在我該指出我在投票時，Roberts還沒打出目前精采的成績。他四月打的很糟，
但這依然不影響他五月把成績整個拉起來。就拿我投票的5/9那天來說好了。自從那天開始
，他就在53場比賽中打出(感謝Baseball-Reference.com贊助XD).348/.429/.457的成績。
並且，17次盜壘中成功15次。
: So, yes, Brian Roberts is an All-Star, and he’s an All-Star ahead of any
: other second baseman in the league, as well as over almost every other middle
: infielder. I was wrong to dismiss him, and as always, I thank the readers for
: keeping me honest.
所以啊，Roberts是個明星，並且目前好過所有聯盟中其他的二壘手，同時也勝過幾乎所有
游擊手。我之前錯估他是個錯誤，而同時，我也感謝讀者們逼我保持誠實。XD
: Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Joe by
: clicking here or click here to see Joe's other articles.
by Joe Sheehan
翻完了 請指教 這篇文章將會轉到洋基版跟金鶯版
希望大家關切小王時 也別忘了更深入去看MLB~~~
--
翻譯外電有什麼功用呢? 賺P幣.學英文.拼優文和爆文....很多很多
但是 絕對不能少了一股passion--我翻外電 因為我愛 王建民 我愛 棒球
所以我在電腦前用生命翻譯 用生命愛小王 (謎之音:沒錯!)
如果你覺得我翻的有問題 那一定要告訴我 這是我進步的動力
如果你覺得我翻的很棒 那就請你X->1 然後告訴我你的感受或者是心裡的感動
我是翔魚 請大家多多指教~
--
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◆ From: 123.240.130.250
※ soaringfish:轉錄至看板 NY-Yankees 07/11 21:43
--
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◆ From: 123.240.130.250
※ 編輯: soaringfish 來自: 123.240.130.250 (07/11 22:10)