[外電] Great Expectations

看板Nuggets作者finalmoon (L')時間17年前 (2007/03/11 23:52)推噓12(12推 0噓 3→)

留言15則, 11人參與討論串1/1

Great Expectations http://tinyurl.com/39sjn6 By John Schuhmann Posted Mar 9 2007 12:05PM SECAUCUS, NJ, March 9, 2007 -- Back in December when the Nuggets traded for Allen Iverson, I didn't think it would make them instant title contenders, but I didn't exactly think they'd be 15-21 (.417) since the deal almost three months later either. Now of course, Carmelo Anthony was suspended for the first 14 games of the Iverson era. But they haven't exactly been on a tear since he came back. They're 9-13 (.409) since Melo returned from suspension and just 5-8 (.385) with both of their stars in the lineup. 時間拉回到十二月，金塊隊交易來Allen Iverson的那一刻，我當時並不認為此交易會馬上讓金塊隊成為奪冠熱門；但我的確也意想不到，三個多月以來金塊隊的戰績只有15勝21敗（勝率0.417）。當然Carmelo Anthony在Iverson到來的時候，還有14 場的禁賽，但是自從Melo歸隊之後，他們的磨合並無明顯效果，金塊隊自Melo解禁之後戰績9勝13敗勝率（0.409），兩位明星同時並肩作戰的戰績，只有5勝8敗（勝率 0.385）。 So what's the deal? Can we just chalk it up to chemistry? It's the way of Reality Check to look inside the numbers, so let's start with the basics... 那麼這項交易看來如何？我們只能歸咎於化學效應尚未發酵？為了找出問題所在，我們可以從數據表現來看，這是另一個較實際的方法。就從基本攻守數字看起… W L PCT OFF RAT DEF RAT PT DIFF REB DIFF Anthony Only 17 13 .567 110.8 107.6 +2.57 +1.90 Iverson Only 6 9 .400 102.6 104.1 -1.07 +1.53 Iverson & Anthony 5 8 .385 108.1 110.5 -2.00 -3.31 Overall 29 30 .492 108.2 107.2 +0.75 +0.71 OFF RAT = Offensive Rating: The amount of points the team scores per 100 possessions. F RAT = Defensive Rating: The amount of points the team allows per 100 possessions. Notes: 1. The Anthony only numbers include 22 games before the trade and eight games since it, when Iverson was out with sprained ankle. There's not much difference in the two sets of numbers, so we can analyze them together. 2. The Iverson only numbers include 14 games during Anthony's suspension plus this Wednesday's game in Golden State when Anthony was celebrating the birth of his son. The offensive rating on Wednesday was a paltry 97.3 and the defensive rating was an ugly 111.1. 3. The Nuggets played one game without either star, the first game of Anthony's suspension, before Iverson was acquired. So, while Melo was still suspended and as Iverson adjusted to his new team, we see that the offense took quite a hit. An offensive rating of 102.6 is worse than all 30 teams this season (Charlotte is at the bottom with a rating of 103.2). But the defense was improved. In fact, a defensive rating of 104.1 would put you in the top five of the league. But since the no-Melo days are over, let's focus on the numbers with the two stars playing together. 勝敗勝率進攻指數防守指數得失分差籃板數差 Anthony Only 17 13 .567 110.8 107.6 +2.57 +1.90 Iverson Only 6 9 .400 102.6 104.1 -1.07 +1.53 Iverson & Anthony 5 8 .385 108.1 110.5 -2.00 -3.31 金塊平均 29 30 .492 108.2 107.2 +0.75 +0.71 進攻指數：每一百次進攻機會，可以得到的平均分數。防守指數：每一百次對手進攻機會，失去的平均分數。註：一：Anthony Only這行數據包含交易前季初的二十二場比賽，以及Iverson因腳踝扭傷缺陣的八場比賽。儘管時間點不同，但是數據上並無太大差別，因此把這三十場比賽歸成一類來分析。二：Iverson Only這行數據包含十四場Melo禁賽，以及一場迎接小甜瓜而缺陣，面對勇士的比賽，共計十五場。而那場比賽的進攻指數有97.3分，防守指數是 111.1分，相當難看。三：金塊隊只有一場比賽兩位球星都缺陣，也就是Anthony禁賽第一場；當時 Iverson未能趕上時間出賽。 Iverson Only時期正是Melo禁賽以及AI初到金塊的適應期。由上表來看，當時金塊隊的確在進攻方面有滿大的問題，102.6的進攻指數比任何球隊還差（夏洛特山貓是聯盟中進攻指數最低的，只有103.2），但是這段期間他們防守卻進步了，104.1的防守指數可能會排到聯盟前五名。接下來我們把討論焦點放在Melo禁賽結束之後，也就是兩大巨星同台演出的數據。 The _enver Nuggets The offensive rating with both in the lineup is a solid 108.1, which would keep them at their No. 11 ranking in the league. The defensive rating, however, is at 110.5, which is more than three points higher than their season average and would rank them 26th in the league (their 107.2 rating for the season actually has them in the top half). The _enver Nuggets 他們共同出賽以來，進攻指數是穩定的108.1分，排在聯盟第十一名；然而防守指數卻是110.5分，比本季平均還要高出3分，排在聯盟第二十六位。事實上金塊本季防守指數107.2分是排在前段班的表現。 In watching a few games in the last couple of weeks, my take on their defense is this: It's not the worst in the league and there are flashes of good D with Marcus Camby's ability to block shots and Iverson's great hands. But they don't exactly help and recover with a lot of energy, so the defense can be broken down pretty easily with ball movement. 根據我這幾個禮拜以來觀看金塊隊比賽的看法，他們並不是防守能力最差的球隊。 Marcus Camby的火鍋能力以及Iverson的抄截能力，是我們偶而可以看到的好防守。但是金塊隊並沒有確實地把活力投注在互相幫忙防守、補位這方面，所以對方幾次的導傳，就可以很輕鬆地撕裂金塊隊的防守陣式。 Good ball movement usually results in a high assist-field goal ratio, and if we look at opponents' assist-field goal ratio, the Nuggets have the sixth highest in the league (.610, compared to the league average of .579). Furthermore, in the games that they've had a defensive rating of less than 100 (which is very good), their opponents have an assist-field goal ratio of .606. And in the games that they've had a defensive rating of above 110 (which is very bad), their opponents' assist-field goal ratio has been .627. 流暢的導傳往往可以造成高助攻率的得分。如果我們從這方面來看，金塊隊讓對手助攻得分的機率是61%（聯盟平均57.9%），排在聯盟第六高；進一步來，看金塊隊的防守指數低於100分（非常優秀）的時候，對手的助攻得分率60.6%，而在防守指數高於110分（非常糟糕）的時候，對手的助攻得分率是62.7%。 So for their opponents, the key to scoring against the Nuggets is pretty simple : move the ball. And for the Nuggets, they need to improve their rotations. 所以對出戰金塊的隊伍來說，要贏過金塊得分的關鍵非常簡單：讓球流動。相對於金塊來說，他們必須加強在防守端的補防能力。 Troubles on the other side of the ball too Let's look a little closer at the 13 games the Nuggets have played with both AI and Melo. We'll compare the numbers in the wins with the numbers in the losses to see where the biggest discrepancies are... POSS OFF RAT DEF RAT Wins (5) 193.6 115.5 105.3 Losses (8) 193.5 103.5 113.8 POSS = Number of possessions The number of possessions they average in wins and losses is almost identical, so the pace at which they play isn't a factor. But the difference in their offensive rating in wins and losses is 12.0, while the difference in their defensive rating is 8.5. Since we discussed the defense above, let's take a closer look at the offense. 金塊隊進攻端的麻煩。讓我們拿最近十三場，AI與Melo並肩作戰的比賽來看，比較贏球和輸球時候的數據，到底最大的差距是在哪邊。球權次數進攻指數防守指數勝 (5) 193.6 115.5 105.3 敗 (8) 193.5 103.5 113.8 不管勝場與敗場，金塊隊進攻機會幾乎完全相同，因此要以快或慢的節奏進行攻擊並不是問題所在。贏球時進攻指數比輸球多12分；防守指數少8分。上面我們已經討論過防守，接下來進一步探討進攻的問題。 Obviously, the Nuggets want to keep the ball in the hands of Anthony and Iverson. Two of the most common plays they are run are: 金塊隊顯然會把球交在Anthony或Iverson手上，二種金塊最常見的打法有： 1. A screen and roll on the left wing with Iverson handling the ball and Carmelo setting the screen. 2. A cross-screen to get Melo the ball on the right block. 一：由Iverson發動攻勢，Melo擋人來執行的擋切戰術。二：隊友交叉擋人之後，讓Melo在有利的位置拿球單打。 Now, obviously, the defense wants to take the ball out of their hands, so Iverson will frequently get double-teamed as he comes off the screen (with a third defender rotating to guard Melo) and Melo will almost always get doubled in the post. This puts the ball in the hands of far inferior offensive players, and if they're not able to catch and shoot, this is where the offense can break down. 顯然地，防守者會設法讓他們把球傳出去，因此在Iverson藉由Melo擋人，從底線繞出來拿球的時候，就會遭到對方雙夾伺候。這時候第三名防守者就必須移動位置去防守Melo；同樣地當Melo在低位拿球，也會有二名球員上前包夾，Melo就得把球交到攻擊力不強的隊友身上。如果他們無法拿球後馬上出手投籃命中，這次的進攻組織也在此宣告瓦解。 The return of J.R. Smith will help, but still, the Nuggets need to find a way to be more consistent offensively. One play that they used often (and very successfully) in the second half of their Feb. 28 win over Orlando was a screen and roll on the right wing with Iverson and Nené. This combination was actually more efficient than the Iverson-Anthony screen and roll that they ran more in the first half. J.R. Smith的歸隊可以幫的上忙，但是金塊隊仍然需要更穩定的進攻方法。二月二十八日，金塊戰勝魔術隊的比賽，下半場有一個戰術是他們常常使用（而且非常成功），由Iverson與Nene來執行檔切。事實證明，這樣的搭配遠比金塊隊上半場時常利用Iverson-Anthony來執行的效果還好的多。 There are a couple of reasons for this: 1. Nené sets a better screen. 2. Nené is more likely to be a mismatch for the weak-side defender coming over to help. 3. If Anthony is on the floor with them, he provides the defense with a dilemma: stay at home on Melo or help the helper. 造成這樣的好效果有下面幾項原因：一：Nene擋人比較確實。二：對於要來幫忙補防球員來說，Nene這一點較有機會造成mismatch。三：假如這時候Melo在場上，那麼對方補防就得面對一個進退二難的局面；緊緊看住Melo，或是進行補防，填補前去幫忙防守Nene的球員所留下來的防守位置。 On the boards On other thing that we shouldn't ignore is the rebounding differential with both Iverson and Anthony in the lineup. For the season, Denver is the 12th best rebounding team in the league when it comes to differential, but their-3.31 number with both of their stars would put them at 25th. So, let's try to figure out where they're failing specifically. OREB/G DREB/G OREB RATE DREB RATE Iverson & Anthony 10.2 30.7 .246 .706 Overall 12.5 31.1 .292 .710 *OREB RATE = Offensive rebounds / (Offensive rebounds + Opp. defensive rebounds) *DREB RATE = Defensive rebounds / (Defensive rebounds + Opp. offensive rebounds) So, their defensive rebounding rate is down slightly, but their offensive rebounding rate is down almost five percent. If we compare Iverson to Andre Miller, we see that Miller grabs 5.6 rebounds per 48 minutes compared to Iverson's 3.4. So, the change there is a factor, but that probably doesn't tell the whole story. 籃板爭奪戰。還有一項我們不能疏忽的數據，就是Iverson與Anthony並肩作戰以來，籃板球的差距。分開來看，丹佛是聯盟排名十二的籃板強隊。但是如果扣除AI與Melo在場上與全隊平均的差距3.3個，那麼他們將會排到第二十五名。接下來看看，金塊隊到底在哪邊失去了優勢。平均進攻籃板平均防守籃板進攻籃板機率防守籃板機率 Iverson & Anthony 10.2 30.7 .246 .706 整季平均 12.5 31.1 .292 .710 進攻籃板機率 = 進攻籃板+對手防守籃板，除以進攻籃板。防守籃板機率 = 防守籃板+對手進攻籃板，除以防守籃板。金塊隊防守籃板機率只有略為下滑，但是進攻籃板機率下降五個百分點。如果我們拿 Iverson與Andre Miller比較籃板，平均是每場3.4個比5.6個。所以這樣的差別是個因素，但也許無法完全代表籃板球數下降的原因。 Conclusions? 總結。 The presence of Anthony and Iverson gives the Nuggets two very potent offensive threats, and with bigs that can finish at the rim and a shooter in Smith, they can be an unstoppable scoring team. But they need to be sharper in how they run their offense and more disciplined. They're good in the open court, but they can run into trouble if a secondary break leads to a freelance situation in the halfcourt and the ball is not in the right hands. Anthony與Iverson的攜手，是金塊隊二個非常好的進攻威脅，同時他們也具有關鍵一擊的能力，加上Smith，金塊隊是可以變成無人能擋的得分球隊。但是他們必須整合出更有紀律的進攻方式。他們打全場開放性進攻很優秀，但是如果在半場陣地戰的二次進攻機會，流於單打、缺乏組織、無法把球交到正確的球員身上，金塊就會有大麻煩了。 More time for Steve Blake could help solve this issue, as he'll keep the ball moving or at least take care of it better than the likes of Yakhouba Diawara or Linas Kleiza. 讓Steve Blake有更多上場時間可以幫助改善這個情況。因為他可以保持球的流動性，或是至少會比Yakhouba Diawara或Linas Kleiza更可以掌握球權，減少失誤。 Still, as I outlined above, issue No. 1 is the defense. The Nuggets do not help and recover well enough, so if you move the ball around, you will get a good shot. If Denver wants to make the playoffs and perhaps make a little noise in the first round, they need to put more effort into the D. Becoming a sharper offense will be easier to do as they build that chemistry. 就如文章上面所列，金塊隊第一問題是防守。他們沒有很好的幫忙互相補位的防守。此外如果他們讓球流動，就可以有很好的出手機會。金塊隊如果想要進季後賽或是想擁有在第一輪跟強權拼戰的能力，他們就必須在防守方更下點功夫。另外當球員之間的化學效應發酵，要磨合出更好的進攻，會是個比較容易的任務。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.141.130.234 ※ 編輯: finalmoon 來自: 220.141.130.234 (03/12 00:01) ※ 編輯: finalmoon 來自: 220.141.130.234 (03/12 00:11)

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