[閒聊] 談談Granderson
談到Granderson花時間看了一下,他今年的成績是沒有去年好,但是還是很不錯
不過細看了才發現其實是滿值得擔心的
1. platoon splits
(vs RHP/LHP)
tOPS+ K/PA BB/PA
2011 98/103 23%/27% 15%/ 7%
2012 107/ 88 27%/32% 11%/11%
career 112/ 68 22%/26% 11%/ 7%
生涯的數據我沒有拿掉2011跟2012,所以拿來比較有一點被汙染了
不過他前幾年累積的樣本是這兩年的四倍多,這個污染應該不會太嚴重
眾所皆知他生涯就是對左投打不好,唯獨去年生涯唯一一次對左投tOPS+超過100
那一年他對左投的BABIP是.305,遠高過生涯.273,HR/PA是0.073,是生涯0.037的兩倍
配上與生涯相去不遠的K、BB數,去年對左投的好成績很可能只是fluke
問題來了,今年他的恐左問題回來不意外,那個K/PA是怎麼回事?
2. contact
我們看他近四年的contact%
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4747&position=OF#platediscipline
O-Swing%大幅上升,Contact%大幅下降,SwStr%也是大幅上升
O-Swing%大幅上升代表開始追打壞球,上一個出現這種情形被拿出來討論的是
10年的Jeter,但是即使是那年的Jeter contact%跟SwStr%也沒有大幅衰退
(這是為什麼我那年對Jeter還是有點信心)
而Grandy不只是O-contact%下降,他的Z-contact%下降的幅度更是驚人
感謝Tukiyomi的提醒,Grandy明年的option因為曾經列名MVP前五名所以是15M
不管如何現在的Grandy如果上市場15M還是買不到的,
不撿他依然是棒槌,但是看起來他明年的風險並不是那麼低
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◆ From: 68.61.37.218
※ 編輯: nickyang 來自: 68.61.37.218 (10/20 08:51)
※ 編輯: nickyang 來自: 68.61.37.218 (10/20 08:51)
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