[譯文] Exploiting Minnesota’s weaknesses

看板NY-Yankees作者jdtrue (練習微笑每一次)時間13年前 (2010/10/06 05:34)推噓20(20推 0噓 7→)

留言27則, 21人參與討論串1/1

http://riveraveblues.com/2010/10/exploiting-minnesotas-weaknesses-36339/ Exploiting Minnesota’s weaknesses By Mike Axisa The Twins finished the regular season with the fourth best record in baseball (94-68) and on a three-plus month hot streak that saw them go 47-25 down the stretch. They did that primarily by crushing their own division and the AL West, because their 15-18 record against the AL East is hardly awe-inspiring. Like every other team they have their flaws, some more noticeable than others. Exploiting those weaknesses is going to be important for any team playing the Twins, and it just so happens that they draw the Yankees in the ALDS. 雙城在正規季賽結束後戰績是大聯盟第四好的94-68，而且過去三個月狀況正好，總共取得了47-25的好成績。他們靠的是打垮自己的美中跟美西分區，因為他們對美東的成績是有點糟糕的15-18。就像其他每一隻球隊一樣，雙城也有他們自己的缺點，有些相較於其他隊是比較明顯的。找出這些缺點會是對跟雙城對戰的球隊很重要的事情，而他們在 ALDS抽到了洋基隊這隻籤。 Here are two of Minnesota’s biggest drawbacks, two things that the Yankees wouldn’t have been able to take advantage of in years past because they lacked a little something called speed. 底下是兩個雙城最大的缺點，這兩件事情是洋基過去幾年無法利用的，因為過去的他們缺少一個東西，叫做速度。 Running On Carl Pavano 盜Carl Pavano的壘 Yankee fans are well aware of their team’s problem with allowing stolen bases. Jorge Posada and Frankie Cervelli hardly ever throw anyone out (just 17.3% combined), and some pitchers on the staff seem allergic to holding runners (coughA.J. Burnettcough). The Twins have a bit of a stolen base problem of their own, and it comes in the form of former Yankee Carl Pavano. 洋基迷應該很了解這隻球隊有容易被盜壘的問題。Posada跟Cervelli幾乎沒辦法讓任何盜壘者出局(總共只有17.3%的CS%)，像有位投手就好像對hold住壘上跑者有點過敏 (咳...A.J.Burnett咳)。雙城在這方面也有一些問題，來自陣中這位前洋基人： Carl Pavano。 Pavano, who has always been slow to the plate, allowed 31 stolen bases in 39 opportunities this year (79.5%). Essentially one out of every seven baserunners with an opportunity to steal have at least attempted it, and most of them were successful. Joe Mauer, who threw out 42.2% of attempted basestealers from 2004-2008 is down to just 26.2% over the last two seasons. He also battled some shoulder soreness this summer, so he’s more susceptible to the stolen base than ever before. Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, and Derek Jeter need to take advantage in Game Two and swipe bases whenever possible. Pavano的投球機制一向都很慢，在39次被盜壘嘗試中成功了31次(79.5%)。而基本上每7位有機會面對他盜壘的跑者就有一位至少嘗試過偷他的壘，而大部分都成功了。Joe Mauer ，這位04年到08年阻殺成功率高達42.2%的捕手在過去兩年下降到26.2%。今年夏天他也有一些肩部痠痛的問題，所以現在面對他盜壘比起過去都更有機會成功。 Gardner、Granderson跟Jeter必須在G2多利用這一點多推進幾個壘包。 It’s not just about stealing bases to get runners in scoring position either. Pavano is a ground ball pitcher (51.2% grounders this season) and has gotten a double play in 11.5% of his opportunities this year, so swiping some bases will help avoid those twins killings, particularly when Jeter and his league leading 65.7% ground ball rate are at the plate. Run boys run. 這不只是為了讓跑者推進到得分位置而盜壘。Pavano是個滾地球投手(本季51.2GB%)，而且在所有機會中成功製造11.5%的雙殺打，所以推進的動作將能避免一次死兩個跑者，特別是Jeter跟他的聯盟最高的65.7GB%，當他站進打擊區時，跑就對了。 Jason Kubel’s Defense Jason Kubel的防守問題 Justin Morneau’s injury hurt the Twins in more ways than one. Sure, replacing his .447 wOBA is basically impossible (though Jim Thome did a helluva job trying), but it also forced an unfavorable defensive shift. Michael Cuddyer stepped in as the everyday first baseman, pushing Jason Kubel into rightfield full-time. There’s a reason that 60% of Kubel’s starts in 2008 and 2009 came as a designated hitter, and that’s because the man is awful with the glove. Morneau的受傷對雙城來說是多方面的重擊。當然要補上他的.447 wOBA幾乎是不可能的任務(雖然Jim Thome做得很好)，但這也迫使雙城做出較差的防守陣容更動。 Cuddyer成為先發一壘手，讓Kubel成為正職右外野手。Kubel在08~09球季有60%的出賽都是擔任DH是有原因的，這是因為他的防守實在是糟透了。 Over the last three seasons, his -17.5 UZR in right ranks 35th out of 39 qualified fielders (min. 1,000 innings), and that’s mostly because of an awful range score (-14.5). Kubel simply doesn’t get to all that many balls out there, and that’s a bit exacerbated by spacious Target Field. Beyond just catching the ball, his throwing is a big time liability and something the Yanks can absolutely take advantage of. 在過去三個球季，他在右外野的-17.5UZR在所有符合資格的39名右外野手中排第35 (最少1000局)，這大部分是因為他糟糕的Range分數(-14.5)。Kubel就是沒辦法趕到定位這麼多次，而因為廣大的Target Field這個缺點相形惡化。除了接球之外，Kubel的傳球更是讓洋基球員能安心利用的缺點。 In baserunning situations such as first-to-third on a single, first-to-home on a double, second-to-home on a single, and sacrifice flies with the runner at second and/or third, Kubel’s “hold” rate is just 39.3%. The league average is close to 46%. His “kill” rate checks in at just 3.4%, well below the 6% league average. A “hold” is when he limits to the runner to just one base on a single or two on a double (so first-to-second on a single, not first-to-third, etc.), nothing more. A “kill” is when he actually threw a runner out attempting to take the extra base. 在各種跑壘情況中，像是藉由一壘安打從一壘跑到三壘，藉由二壘安打從一壘跑回本壘，藉由一壘安打從二壘跑回本壘，還有藉由高飛犧牲打跑者在二壘或三壘的推進，Kubel 在這一點的"hold"比率只有39.3%。聯盟平均差不多是46%。他的"kill"比率只有3.4%，遠低於平均的6%。"hold"是指將跑者限制只推進一個壘包(一壘安打)或是只推進兩個壘包 (二壘安打)，不允許再多跑。而"kill"是指他實際上傳球讓想多推進壘包的跑者出局這件事。 Clearly, Kubel’s arm is something guys like Gardner, Granderson, Jeter, Robbie Cano, and even Alex Rodriguez need to exploit. He’s very unlikely to throw them out trying to take the extra base, so they should push the envelope as much as possible, particularly with Francisco Liriano on the mound. They simply won’t get many opportunities to generate extended rallies against him, so they have to create offense in other ways. 顯然地，Kubel的臂力是像Gardner、Granderson、Jeter、Cano甚至是A-Rod都必須去善加利用的。他不太可能讓這些人在嘗試多推進壘包時讓他們出局，所以能多跑多少就多跑多少，特別是當投手丘上是Liriano的時候。他們很難在面對他時有很多機會製造大局，所以必須用別種方式製造更多攻勢。 It’s also worth noting that Delmon Young is equally awful in left, with a -43.3 UZR over the last three seasons (dead last among qualified fielders). His hold rate on first-to-homes on a doubles, second-to-home to singles, and sacrifice flies to score a run (it’s not often a runner goes first-to-third on a single to left, or advances from second on a sac fly) is just 38.3%, his kill rate 5.3%. Like I said earlier, run boys run. 而Delmon Young在左外野的防守也同樣糟糕得可以，過去三季的UZR總合是-43.3(在所有符合資格的球員中排名倒數第一)。而他的hold比率也只有38.3%，kill比率5.3%。就跟我剛剛說的一樣，死命地跑吧。 I know it’s hard to believe, but it’s not just the Yankees that have weaknesses heading into the playoffs. In addition to the above, the Twins are likely to be without top setup man Jon Rauch because of a knee injury (though he had it drained and claims he’s good to go), and their bullpen had the fourth worst strikeout rate in baseball this year at 6.74 K/9. If you’re going to let the Yanks put balls in play in the late innings, bad things will happen. With any luck they’ll take advantage. 我知道這很難讓人相信，但並非只有洋基隊明明有缺點但還是進了季後賽。除了上述之外，雙城很可能會失去他們的優秀setup man-Jon Rauch，因為他膝蓋傷勢的緣故。(儘管他已做了治療然後說他沒有問題)，而且他們的牛棚有著大聯盟第四糟的三振率(6.74 K/9)。如果你讓洋基隊這些球員在後段局數把球打進場內，壞事就會發生。若一切順利，局勢就會偏向他們那一邊。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.45.171.71

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※ 編輯: jdtrue 來自: 114.45.171.71 (10/06 09:02)

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