[討論] Future Shock March 8, 2010

看板NY-Yankees作者numblife時間14年前 (2010/03/10 14:24)推噓9(9推 0噓 10→)

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Future Shock Organizational Rankings, Part 1&2 by Kevin Goldstein 30. St. Louis Cardinals Last Year’s Ranking: 9 Why They Are Here: Their recent drafts aren't awful per se, but they're certainly boring and lacking as far as star power. The graduation of a few prospects and the trading away of even more (which happens when you are a perennial contender) leavse the system almost solely riding on the hopes for Shelby Miller's right arm. Where They Will Be Next Year: Either here, or darn close to here. Their first-round pick doesn't come until the 25th selection, so there’s no star power coming from there either, not unless someone falls into their lap. If Miller collapses for some reason, there's nobody here worthy of top-prospect recognition. 29. Arizona Diamondbacks Last Year’s Ranking: 28 Why They Are Here: Trades have gutted the system which, combined with the fact that top prospect Jarrod Parker will miss the entire year, means there's no help coming from the system anytime soon. After Brandon Allen, who has some highly divergent scouting reports himself, there's not a good hitter in the system who isn't at least three years away. Where They Will Be Next Year: Up, and possibly significantly. While I haven't gone back to check exactly, I'm nearly sure that with eight of their Top 11 coming from the previous year's draft, Arizona has set some kind of record, and they just need a few of those players to step forward for the organization to look much better 12 months from now. 28. Houston Astros Last Year’s Ranking: 30 Why They Are Here: They have utterly no depth whatsoever. Recent drafts have changed the top of their prospect lists, but the players from six to 11 wouldn't even sniff most team's lists. When two middle relief prospects earn single-digit rankings, that's never a good sign. Where They Will Be Next Year: Should be up a bit. The eighth overall pick in June certainly helps, but what was once a downright embarrassing collection of talent is making slow, steady progress since the addition of scouting director Bobby Heck. 27. Chicago White Sox Last Year’s Ranking: 24 Why They Are Here: In some ways it's for good reasons, as Gordon Beckham developed so fast that he's not eligible any more. Still, after that, things fall off quite quickly, as we can dream on Jared Mitchell all day long, but he and outfielder Jordan Danks are the only position prospects who would also rank on other teams' lists. Where They Will Be Next Year: Could go either way. Mitchell is a boom or bust type, as is outfielder Trayce Thompson, while third baseman Dayan Viciedo is looking like he might fall into the same category. They'll likely lose top prospect Daniel Hudson, and possibly their third-best player, Tyler Flowers, tio major-league promotions, so somebody has to step up. 26. New York Yankees Last Year’s Ranking: 13 Why They Are Here: Jesus Montero is an utter stud, but no other player in the system even sniffed the Top 101. The upper-level pitchers have low ceilings, and after Montero, there's not a hitter in the system close to contributing. Where They Will Be Next Year: Should be up. The Yankees know how to turn late first-round picks into much better players, while they also tend to find great talent in Latin America, and there are a number of very young players in the Top 11 who could take a step forward. If Montero graduates to the big leagues however, it will be tough to make up for that loss. 15. New York Mets Last Year’s Ranking: 18 Why They Are Here: The system is on the upswing, thanks to a nice group coming from the international market and, for the first time in a while, a draft class (2009) that looks like it will pay some dividends. With four Top 101 prospects and a three-star list that runs into the early teens, there's room for optimism here. Where They Will Be Next Year: The Mets could add another Top 50-type with the seventh overall pick in the draft, their highest slot since 2004, and fourth-highest pick in the last 25 years. Top prospects like Jenrry Mejia and Ike Davis have more of a 2011 timetable, so Fernando Martinez is the only top prospect likely to lose his eligibility this season. 14. Detroit Tigers Last Year’s Ranking: 27 Why They Are Here: While they are young and risky, for pure upside few teams can provide a one-two punch as promising as Jacob Turner and Casey Crosby, while Scott Sizemore is a solid big league-ready second baseman. The power arms continue from there, and while the system lacks depth, there are still some interesting power bats at the upper levels. Where They Will Be Next Year: The same at best, but likely down. Turner and Crosby have to live up to expectations, as Sizemore will lose eligibility, and the signing of Jose Valverde cost the team its first-round pick in June. There's just not a ton of upside among the hitting crop. 13. San Francisco Giants Last Year’s Ranking: 6 Why They Are Here: This is one of the most difficult systems to rank. One has to give them credit for having two five-star, big league-ready prospects in Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner, but while there's depth here, the star quality falls off quickly after the big two. Where They Will Be Next Year: Down, and down significantly if both Posey and Bumgarner get enough big-league time. Unless Zach Wheeler pitches as well as expected, there's not an obvious candidate to step into the team's best-prospect spot. 12. Washington Nationals Last Year’s Ranking: 29 Why They Are Here: Having the top prospect in baseball sure helps, but it doesn't end there, as Derek Norris is one of the best catching prospects in the game, and Drew Storen is a nearly ready big-league closer. Beyond those three, there are plenty of players who at least have the tools to create a brighter blip on a scout's radar. Where They Will Be Next Year: Unquestionably down, but that's what happens when you lose the top prospect in the game. Washington picks first again in June, and that selection will almost assuredly be the system's new top prospect, but nobody in this year's draft can replace Strasburg. 11. San Diego Padres Last Year’s Ranking: 25 Why They Are Here: The 2008 draft class looks like a potential monster at this point, while righty Simon Castro took a massive step forward last year and they found that crazy tools/crazy upside prospect the system has been lacking for years with Donavan Tate. New general manager Jed Hoyer inherits a system where most everything is suddenly moving in the right direction. Where They Will Be Next Year: All of their prospects should be around next year, and the club picks ninth overall in June. They should be in the top half once again, with a solid chance to move into the single digits. Woooops....baby. You forgot something.... Nationals got "Wang"...and... U should adjust their ranking ....! from:BP -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.39.58.104 ※ 編輯: numblife 來自: 114.39.58.104 (03/10 14:27)

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