《當代中國講座系列二》大崩盤或威權復甦？
《當代中國講座系列二》
China's New Leadership: Coming Collapse or Authoritarian Resilience？
大崩盤或威權復甦？對中國新領導人的評估
【主講人】Prof. Andrew Nathan （黎安友教授）
（哥倫比亞大學政治系主任，東亞研究所前主任）
【時間】2003年12月11日5:00-6:30 PM
【地點】國立清華大學人文社會學院C306室
【演講簡介】
中國經濟成長態勢備受全球矚目。她的政治動向也是國內外觀察家密切關注的焦點。
中國市場改革二十五年來，經歷數度的權力接班與政治危機。自從天安門事件以來，
朝向政治自由化的道路，似乎已經不在中央菁英的日程表上。最近胡錦濤、溫家寶等
四代領導人的接班，引發學界與評論界的新爭論：究竟中國的新領導人，有無能力處
理潛在或已經浮現的經濟社會危機？中共政權有可能崩潰嗎？或者，相反的，第四代
如果順利完成接班，是否代表中共體制將有長期存續更新的能力、甚至產生威權反彈
的現象？
After the Tiananmen crisis in June, 1989, many observers thought that
the rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would collapse. Instead,
the regime has proven resilient. The causes of its resilience are complex.
But many of them can be summed up in the concept of institutionalization.
The regime's succession politics are increasingly norm bound. Promotion of
political elites is increasingly meritocratic as opposed to factional.
Institutions within the regime are more differentiated and functionally
specialized than in the past. And the regime has established institutions
for political participation and appeal of grievances that strengthen the
CCP's legitimacy among the public at large. While these developments do not
guarantee that the regime will be able to solve all the challenges that it
faces, they do caution against too-hasty arguments that it cannot adapt and
survive.
【聯絡方式】助理cfcc@my.nthu.edu.tw （03）516-5982
【主辦單位】國立清華大學當代中國研究中心、社會學研究所中國研究學程合辦
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