[情報] HoopsWorld: Fantasy Sleepers & Busts: First Edition
from: HoopsWorld
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=10337
Fantasy Sleepers & Busts: First Edition
By: Steven Jones Last Updated: 10/23/08 12:53 AM ET
If you're lucky, your fantasy draft is right around the corner. (If you're
extra-lucky, your first fantasy draft is right around the corner, with several
more in the weeks to come.) Anyone can grab Kobe, LeBron, or CP3 with their
first-round pick, but you'll make or break your team with what happens in the
subsequent rounds. Here is the first of what could be several compilations of
likely sleepers and busts for 2008-09. None of these predictions are
guaranteed, but they're all worth a spare thought when you're wavering between
a proven stud or an upside guy.
Sleepers
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland – Greg Oden will get the attention, but Aldridge
might grab the numbers. Since he'll be available in the later rounds of your
draft, he's worth a long look as a potential 18-8 producer.
Ronnie Brewer, Utah – He improved immensely last season, becoming one of the
league's top thieves and displaying a knack for efficient scoring. If he's
developed an outside shot over the summer, he could make enough threes to
round out his production enough to be your team's starting two-guard.
T.J. Ford, Indiana – The ball will be his in Indiana, and he'll have two
efficient scorers flanking him in Dunleavy and Granger, plus a few big men to
finish his dribble-and-dishes. Ford's health, always a question mark, is the
only thing holding him back from averaging a solid 18/10. He's worth taking
as your starting PG if CP3, Deron, Nash, Billups, et al are off the board.
Drew Gooden, Chicago – He came alive after the trade-deadline deal that
landed him in the Windy City, averaging a near-double-double. He's a likelier
bet than young 'mates Joakim Noah or Tyrus Thomas, even if his on-court
mental lapses drive Bulls fans to distraction.
Al Horford, Atlanta – He's young, talented, efficient, and likely to get
better. He's in the next power forward/center tier right behind Dwight
Howard, Tim Duncan, Amare, Nowitzki, and the other usual suspects. Seriously,
wouldn't he be a better bet than David West or Tyson Chandler? And he'll
probably slip to the sixth or seventh round of most drafts.
Busts
Ray Allen, Boston – His impressive Finals showing may have vaulted him into
several top 50s, but there are easily 20 shooting guards who will outperform
Ray this season. He's served fantasy owners well over the past decade, and
now he may be gracefully fading into Michael Finley-dom.
Jose Calderon, Toronto – Before you hammer me with angry e-mails composed of
capital letters and misspelled profanities, let me make this clear: I am a
huge Calderon fan, and he carried one of my teams last season. I think he
will be an even more effective basketball player this season. From a fantasy
standpoint, though, I always worry about guys in the year after their breakout season. Calderon was a 10th-round-and-beyond pick last year who ended up surprising everyone. Will he have the same
effect now that he's a known commodity? I wouldn't spend a first-or-second-
round pick on him, is all I'm saying – he's been extraordinarily fortunate
and healthy, and one or the other of those may run out this season.
Antawn Jamison, Washington – Nobody's counting on the former Tar Heel to save
their fantasy season, but he's rated in some Top 50s, which is a little high
for someone who just had the best season of his career at age 32. Jamison's
advantage is that he doesn't rely on athleticism, so he has a good chance of
maintaining his production, but it's always scary to have someone during
their "I've lost it" season.
Andre Miller, Philadelphia – Oddly enough, all the same comments from
Jamison's section could apply, right down to the top-50 ranking. Just
substitute "former Ute" for "former Tar Heel."
Michael Redd, Milwaukee – New coach Scott Skiles emphasizes defense above
all else and isn't afraid to bench anyone who fails to live up to that ethos.
Redd may see fewer chances to launch jumpers when he's still sore from the
morning shootaround's loose-ball drills.
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