[外絮] NBA:沒證據負載管理對受傷風險沒幫助或有幫助
https://reurl.cc/L4Ng0x
作者:Tim Bontemps
The NBA disseminated an analytics report to teams and select media members
this week that said there is no correlation between players being load
managed and having a reduced risk of injury.
The report, the latest step in what has been a long debate over the concept
of load management, comes in the wake of Joe Dumars, the NBA's executive vice
president of basketball operations, saying in October that there is no
correlation between the two. Commissioner Adam Silver backed up Dumars in a
news conference last month.
本週NBA向球隊和選定的媒體成員發布了一份分析報告，該報告指出球員進行負載管理與
減少受傷風險之間沒有相關性。
這份報告是對負擔管理概念進行長時間辯論的最新一步，此前NBA的籃球運營執行副總裁
Joe Dumars於十月份表示，這兩者之間沒有相關性。NBA主席Adam Silver在上個月的記者
會上支持了Dumars的說法。
Dr. Christina Mack, epidemiologist and and chief scientific officer at IQVIA
Injury Surveillance & Analytics, which produced the report, was careful to
point out that the report does not say that load management doesn't work,
either.
"We're not saying it's better or worse," Mack said.
Christina Mack博士是IQVIA傷害監測與分析部門的流行病學家兼首席科學官，該部門製作
了這份報告。她小心翼翼地指出，報告並未表示負載管理無效。
「我們並不是說這是好還是壞，」Mack表示。
The 57-page report was sent to NBA teams earlier this week -- at the behest
of the NBA's competition committee -- to see if there was any relationship
between:
‧ frequency of game participation and injury
‧ schedule density and injury
‧ cumulative NBA participation and injury
The report concluded that there was not.
這份長達57頁的報告是在本週初應NBA競爭委員會的要求下發送給NBA球隊的，以探討以下
三者之間是否存在關係：
-參與比賽的頻率和受傷之間的關係
-賽程密度和受傷之間的關係
-累計NBA參與和受傷之間的關係
報告的結論指出這三者之間並無相關性。
"Results from these analyses do not suggest that missing games for rest or
load management -- or having longer breaks between game participation --
reduces future in-season injury risk," the report said, in bold type, in its
summary.
"In addition, injury rates were not found to be higher during or immediately
following periods of a dense schedule."
The report said that remained true even when factoring in things like player
age, minutes played and injury history.
「這些分析的結果並未顯示，因休息或負載管理而缺席比賽，或者在參與比賽之間有更長
的休息時間，會減少未來球季內的受傷風險，」報告在摘要中以粗體字表示。
「此外，並未發現在賽程密集期間或立即在賽程密集時期後，受傷頻率較高。」
報告指出，即使考慮到球員年齡、出場時間和傷病歷史等因素，這一結論仍然成立。
The report based its findings off a 10-year sample -- from the 2013-14 season
through 2022-23 -- using leaguewide data and focusing on a group of 150
"starter-level players" each season. Those players were All-Stars from the
past three seasons, top 10 picks in that season's draft and the remaining
players with the most total minutes played in the prior season who don't fit
into either of the previous two groups
The report also focused on players missing a single game, rather than
multiple games in a row, and was split into players sitting specifically for
rest, as well as games in which a player missed time for rest or injury.
這份報告基於一個為期10年的樣本，從2013-14賽季到2022-23賽季，使用全聯盟數據，並
聚焦於每個賽季的一組150名「先發水準球員」。這些球員包括過去三個賽季的全明星球
員、當季選秀的前10名球員，以及不在上述任何一組但上一賽季總上場時間最多的其餘球
員。
報告還聚焦於缺席單場比賽的球員，而非連續缺席多場比賽，並將球員分為針對性休息的
情況，以及球員因受傷或為傷病休息而缺席比賽的情況。
Although the report said there were a variety of factors that limited the
scope of the findings -- the inability to examine trends from outside the
10-year window of data, and the different ways individual teams handle this
topic -- it repeatedly stressed that there was no correlation between load
management and ensuring players will be on the court more regularly.
While single-game absences for starter-level players skyrocketed over the
past decade -- from a combined 169 among starter-level players in 2014-15 to
380 in 2022-23 -- the number of regular-season injuries among starter-level
players also reached a 10-season high this past season.
儘管報告指出有多種因素限制了研究結果的範圍——例如無法檢視超出10年數據期間之外
的趨勢，以及各個球隊以不同方式處理這個問題的差異——但報告反復強調，負載管理和
確保球員更加規律上場之間不存在相關性。
儘管在過去的十年中，先發水準球員單場缺席的次數急劇增加——從2014-15賽季首發水
準球員中總共169次，增加到2022-23賽季的380次——在上一賽季，先發水準球員的例行賽
受傷次數也達到了10個賽季的最高單季總和。
Early in the report, it explained why it was commissioned this summer: the
ongoing discussion about star players missing games.
In the 1980s, star players -- a group defined by the report as players who
were either All-Star or All-NBA selections in the current season or the prior
two -- missed an average of 10.4 games per season, a number that was 10.6
games in the 1990s.
But that number jumped from 13.9 games in the 2000s to 17.5 games in the
2010s and 23.9 games in this decade.
在報告的前段，它解釋了為什麼在今年夏天委託進行這項研究：即有關明星球員缺席比賽
的討論。
在1980年代，明星球員——該報告定義為在當前賽季或前兩個賽季中被選為全明星或全
NBA的球員——每賽季平均缺席10.4場比賽，而在1990年代這個數字為10.6場。
但這個數字從2000年代的13.9場急劇增加到2010年代的17.5場，並在這個十年達到23.9場
。
NBA senior vice president of player matters Dave Weiss, asked if that
dramatic increase in missed games over the past 20 years could be attributed
to load management, said much of it was because of injury, but that
single-game absences for players had increased by about five times over that
span.
"Clearly, that's happening more than at just the rate of injuries," Weiss
said.
The report's findings -- establishing that load managing players does not
definitively lead to them being healthier -- was in line with what Dumars
said back in October.
NBA球員事務資深副總裁Dave Weiss在被問及過去20年間缺席比賽次數的急劇增加是否可
以歸因於負載管理時表示，其中大部分是由於受傷，但球員單場缺席的次數在這段時間內
增加了約五倍。
「顯然，這比傷病發生的速率更為頻繁，」Weiss說。
報告的結果——即對球員進行負載管理不能確定地使他們更健康——與Dumars在十月份所
言一致。
At last month's in-season tournament, Silver reiterated the stance that
there's no data-driven proof that the concept of load management keeps
players healthy. He called the science and medical data "mixed."
"The question is I think the ultimate question behind load management isn't
so much that there isn't a fall-off from performance when you are tired and
fatigued," he said. "The question is, does that lead to more injuries?"
That was in direct contrast to Silver's comments last February, when he said,
"The suggestion, I think, that these men, in the case in the NBA, somehow
should just be out there more for its own sake, I don't buy into."
上個月的季中錦標賽中，Silver重申了這一立場，即沒有數據證明負擔管理的概念能夠保
持球員的健康。他稱這方面的科學和醫學數據為「錯雜的」。
「我認為負載管理背後的最終問題並不是在你感到疲憊的時候表現會下降多少，」他說。
「問題是，這是否會導致更多的受傷？」
這與Silver去年二月的發言形成鮮明對比，當時他表示：「我不同意這種看法，即這些人
，在NBA的情況下，應該僅僅是為了自己而在場上待更長時間。」
Weiss said that change in tone was a function of the league deciding it was
necessary to study the data.
"We accepted that conventional wisdom and some of the information that teams
had shared with us over years, which included some data but never nearly as
robust as what we've now shared back," Weiss said. "And it hit a point where
we said, 'You know, we have been looking at this for years and we are not
seeing this effect, and so we think we need to get more formal and structured
in terms of how we're analyzing this and sharing it out with teams.' And
that's really kind of what led to this."
Weiss表示，這種態度轉變是聯盟認為有必要對數據進行研究的結果。
「我們接受了多年來球隊向我們分享的一些常規智慧和信息，其中包括一些數據，但從未
像我們現在分享的這麼全面，」Weiss說。「我們到達了這樣一個點，我們認為多年來一直
在研究這個問題，我們沒有看到這種效果，所以我們認為我們需要在如何分析這個問題並
將其與球隊資訊分享方面變得更加正式和結構化。這實際上就是這個研究的動因。」
(節錄自:https://reurl.cc/13eEmY)
作者:David Aldridge
The league pointed out that the report has limitations:
‧ It only covers regular-season games.
‧ It doesn’t account for players coming from the offseason and ramping up
for play before the start of a regular season.
‧ It does not determine how much the fatigue of playing more minutes or
games impacts players’ mental health, a major area of increased concern and
care by the league in recent years.
‧ It does not account for individual intensity of play (how much does one
player pace himself during a season, compared with another?)
‧ In addition, players over 35, who are eligible for exemptions from the
PPP, are such a relatively small sample group that more data may be needed to
see if they’re impacted differently.
聯盟也指出了這份報告的限制:
-這只包含了例行賽
-這並不考慮球員剛從休賽季回來例行賽提升狀態的過程
-這並沒有測量打更多時間與比賽的疲勞對於球員的心理健康是否有影響，這也是近年被聯
盟逐漸增加關注的一個主要領域。
-這並不考慮個別球員打球的張力(一名球員在賽季中如何調節自己的比賽強度，與另一名
球員相比如何?)
-另外，超過35歲的球員(也是球員出席政策的特例群體)樣本數相對較小所以需要更多數據
來觀察是否有不同的影響
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 98.217.185.18 (美國)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NBA/M.1705186278.A.1FB.html
※ 編輯: EZ78 (98.217.185.18 美國), 01/14/2024 06:51:46
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我來節錄一下Aldridge的文好了
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※ 編輯: EZ78 (98.217.185.18 美國), 01/14/2024 07:14:06
※ 編輯: EZ78 (98.217.185.18 美國), 01/14/2024 07:20:54
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※ 編輯: EZ78 (98.217.185.18 美國), 01/14/2024 07:22:18
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還有 135 則推文
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