[專欄] 姆斯還能創造「奇蹟」?LYS
姆斯還能創造「奇蹟」?
By 李亦伸 - 2017-05-28
ESPN奪冠BPI數據分析(ESPN’s Basketball Power Index ),勇士奪冠機率高達93%,騎
士只有7%。
這套數據統計我沒有研究,也不很懂,但BPI數據顯示:勇士奪冠機率和情勢被大幅看好
。
事實上,勇士和騎士之間實力差距並沒有BPI顯示的這麼大,保守一點估計,勇士對騎士
大約是55:45的比賽,勇士的團隊、整體略好於騎士,但騎士的板凳天賦要優於勇士。
今年總冠軍系列賽我的預測是:勇士4:1,最多4:2就能擊敗騎士,勇士整體實力和穩定
性比騎士更好一些。NBA傳奇球星Charles Barkley預測騎士4:2勝勇士,另一名傳奇球星
Chris Mullin認為,勇士4:2勝騎士。
但騎士能不能再度上演上季總冠雨賽G5、G6、G7三連勝翻盤的奇蹟,得看「姆斯」LBron
James的表演。
騎士要再度上演奇蹟,順序是:1姆斯全程維持水準,2Kyrie Irving進攻表現超水準,3
團隊防守穩定,4三分球發飆,這4個程序從1開始,只要有一個未能達到,騎士就很難贏
。
對騎士來說,只要姆斯打不好,騎士就結束,姆斯必須打得非常出色,騎士才有機會扳倒
勇士。
今年季後賽姆斯13戰,場均32.5分、8籃板、7助攻,投籃命中率5成66,三分球命中率4成
21是個指標,姆斯必須維持這種高檔表現,整個系列賽都不能消失,騎士就有再度上演「
奇蹟」的可能。
姆斯水準發揮,帶動團隊,Kyrie Irving也能在進攻端創造他今年季後賽場均24.5分,投
籃命中率4成66的水平,勇士想要擊敗騎士就會非常困難。
上季總冠軍賽騎士最後三連勝翻盤,就是建立在姆斯和Kyrie兩人同時抓狂的瘋狂表現基
礎上,這兩人只要一個失常,騎士也完蛋。
騎士有一個最重要的X因子是Kevin Love,他是騎士陣中最關鍵的戰術和戰略點,他如果
能在騎士戰術體系中不斷形成「錯位」,利用Love強攻內線和低位,在禁區和籃板上製造
勇士禁區麻煩,那麼系列賽情勢就會被扭轉過來。
但騎士球權勢必會集中在姆斯和Kyrie手裡,節奏也掌握在這兩人手中,如何幫助並創
Love的對位和內線、籃板球優勢,得看騎士教練和兩名核心球星的籃球智慧。
對騎士來說,守住勇士,困住Stephen Curry,讓勇士三分球和節奏飆不起來,速度打不
出來,這是他們上季總冠賽翻盤的基礎。今年勇士多了Kevin Durant,騎士防守又七零八
落,有一場沒一場,一旦騎士防守不能同時困住勇士Curry和KD的進攻和得分,這個系列
賽也會很早結束。
最後就是三分球,騎士會瘋,但勇士也會很瘋,三分對轟,誰更瘋、更能持續更密集,命
中更關鍵三分球,這是雙方決戰最後一個決勝變數。
從姆斯開始,姆斯必須系列賽保持高水準發揮,騎士才有機會去創造更大「奇蹟」。
http://media.pbplus.me/17524
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※ 編輯: zzyyxx77 (36.229.161.136), 05/29/2017 00:00:52
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