[討論] 5/20 Draft Lottery, 回顧歷年的狀元籤
消息來源:RealGM http://goo.gl/eDypzO
內容:
安安, 明天就是draft lottery啦, 以下是各隊抽中狀元籤的機率.
隊伍 機率
灰狼 25.0%
尼克 19.9%
七六人 15.6%
湖人 11.9%
魔術 8.8%
國王 6.3%
金塊 4.3%
活塞 2.8%
黃蜂 1.7%
熱火 1.1%
溜馬 0.8%
爵士 0.7%
太陽 0.6%
雷霆 0.5%
以機率大於10%的隊伍來看, 身為爐主, 灰狼有25%的機率會抽到狀元, 而尼克19.9%緊追
在後, 再來則是七六人15.6%以及湖人11.9%. 然而, 自1985年後的狀元籤得主中, 有10支
球隊是以不到10%的機率下抽到的, 也就是全數的1/3, 而當中又有5支球隊以不到5%的機率
下奪得狀元(全數的1/6).
以下是千囍年來狀元籤得主的列表
Year 選秀籤來源 機率 預估順位 Player Taken Draft Team
2014 Cavaliers 1.70% 9th Andrew Wiggins Cavaliers
2013 Cavaliers 15.60% 3rd Anthony Bennett Cavaliers
2012 Pelicans 13.70% 4th Anthony Davis Pelicans
2011 Clippers 2.80% 8th Kyrie Irving Cavaliers
2010 Wizards 10.30% 5th John Wall Wizards
2009 Clippers 17.70% 3rd Blake Griffin Clippers
2008 Bulls 1.70% 9th Derrick Rose Bulls
2007 Trail Blazers 5.30% 7th Greg Oden Trail Blazers
2006 Raptors 8.80% 5th Andrea Bargnani Raptors
2005 Bucks 6.30% 6th Andrew Bogut Bucks
2004 Magic 25.00% 1st Dwight Howard Magic
2003 Cavaliers 22.50% 1st LeBron James Cavaliers
2002 Rockets 8.90% 5th Yao Ming Rockets
2001 Wizards 15.70% 3rd Kwame Brown Wizards
2000 Nets 4.40% 7th Kenyon Martin Nets
騎士在這15年裡囊括了4個狀元籤, 其中兩個以1.7%, 2.8%的機會抽到的, 是不是該開個
班教人抽籤? 而其中抽到Kyrie Irving的簽(2.8%)還是用Baron Davis從快艇交易來的.
只能說老天爺不公平阿.
公牛也在2008年以1.7%的渺茫機會下抽中狀元籤, 他們用此選中Rose, 與騎士2014年抽中
狀元的機率並列最低.
然而這15年裡也只有兩隊是在最高的機率下抽到狀元籤的, 他們是2003的騎士(又是騎士),
2004的魔術, 分別抽中James與Howard.
補個92-97年好了, 也滿重要的.
Year 選秀籤來源 機率 預估順位 Player Taken Draft Team
1997 Spurs 21.60% 3rd Tim Duncan Spurs
1996 Sixers 33.73% 2nd Allen Iverson Sixers
1995 Warriors 9.40% 5th Joe Smith Warriors
1994 Bucks 16.30% 4th Glenn Robinson Bucks
1993 Magic 1.52% 11th Chris Webber Magic
1992 Magic 15.15% 2nd Shaquille O'Neal Magic
這季新秀我不太了解, 不過Karl-Anthony Towns跟Jahlil Okafor呼聲頗高.
不知道大家看好誰是狀元, 或是你希望哪一隊抽到狀元籤?
我個人私心灰狼拿到, 希望他們下一季可以打季後賽.
盧小比+LaVine+Wiggins+Dieng+Peko!!
時間是在台灣時間5/20早上8:30開始
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※ 編輯: wilsonkoo (67.168.133.28), 05/19/2015 12:17:01
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