[討論] 什麼是順風球?(熱火馬刺順風贏球統計)已回收
常常看到大家在討論
XXX只會打順風球
但好像很少人把順風球的定義講清楚
是指上半場勝分超過十分 然後獲得勝利?
或是指說比賽從頭到尾勝方都沒有被超前或追平?
有沒有一個明確的定義呢?
如果以上兩點是順風球的定義
那麼來統計一下總冠軍戰兩隊季後賽贏球戰績
沒空看詳細的比賽紀錄
用box做比較
過程冗長 可以直接end看結果
================Heat================
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Bucks 24 21 20 22 87 │順風
│Heat 26 26 28 30 110 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Bucks 23 20 22 21 86 │順風
│Heat 25 22 21 30 98 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Heat 21 27 30 26 104 │
│Bucks 30 20 18 23 91 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Heat 24 21 22 21 88 │順風
│Bucks 17 24 21 15 77 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Bulls 20 21 15 22 78 │順風
│Heat 25 30 30 30 115 │
└╩═════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Heat 25 27 18 34 104 │
│Bulls 25 25 20 24 94 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Heat 21 23 17 27 88 │順風
│Bulls 15 18 9 23 65 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Bulls 21 32 24 14 91 │
│Heat 30 17 22 25 94 │
└══════════════════════
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th OT1 FINAL │
│Pacers 21 21 23 27 10 102 │
│Heat 22 15 27 28 11 103 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Heat 34 36 21 23 114 │順風
│Pacers 30 26 20 20 96 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Pacers 23 21 13 22 79 │
│Heat 19 21 30 20 90 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Pacers 21 16 18 21 76 │算順風?
│Heat 19 33 24 23 99 │(半場勝超過十分)
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Spurs 22 23 20 19 84 │算順風?
│Heat 22 28 25 28 103 │(沒被追平or超前吧)
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Heat 29 20 32 28 109 │(中場有追平)
│Spurs 26 23 27 17 93 │
└══════════════════════┘
==========================================================
=================Spurs=================
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Lakers 15 22 20 22 79 │順風
│Spurs 24 21 25 21 91 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Lakers 23 25 20 23 91 │順風
│Spurs 28 28 22 24 102 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Spurs 30 25 30 35 120 │順風
│Lakers 18 26 19 26 89 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Spurs 26 26 26 25 103 │順風
│Lakers 20 14 24 24 82 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th OT1 OT2 FINAL │
│Warriors 28 25 39 14 9 12 127 │
│Spurs 25 24 31 26 9 14 129 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Spurs 32 25 22 23 102 │順風
│Warriors 23 25 21 23 92 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Warriors 28 23 21 19 91 │順風
│Spurs 37 17 29 26 109 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Spurs 21 26 19 28 94 │順風
│Warriors 19 21 19 23 82 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Grizzlies 14 23 20 26 83 │順風
│Spurs 31 20 22 32 105 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th OT1 FINAL │
│Grizzlies 13 18 33 21 4 89 │
│Spurs 15 31 30 9 8 93 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th OT1 FINAL │
│Spurs 13 27 24 22 18 104 │
│Grizzlies 29 15 21 21 7 93 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Spurs 24 20 28 21 93 │順風
│Grizzlies 14 24 28 20 86 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Spurs 23 26 20 23 92 │
│Heat 24 28 20 16 88 │
└══════════════════════┘
┌──────────────────────┐
│ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th FINAL │
│Heat 20 24 19 14 77 │順風
│Spurs 24 26 28 35 113 │
└══════════════════════┘
======================================
總計:
Heat八次
Spurs十次
因為是看box
所以有可能會又中間追平的比賽沒看到 有可能有誤差
但兩隊順風贏球的次數其實差不多 馬刺略多於熱火
熱火贏球時是順風球的機率是8/14=57%
馬刺機率是10/14=71%
兩隊合計18/28=64%
可以看的出來 贏球時,是順風球的機率本來就大於1/2
我的結論是:
→所有人都比較會打順風球
--
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下聯: 焉能無功成
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--
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◆ From: 140.112.4.176
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06/14 15:46, , 1F
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然後我發現一點
唯一有被順風橫掃的是██████隊
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06/14 15:47, , 4F
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噓
06/14 15:47, , 5F
06/14 15:47, 5F
比較會打順風球的定義不就是比較會在順風的時候贏球嗎?
所以看比賽結果的問題在哪裡?
這篇本來就是討論
如果覺得順風球定義有問題 歡迎你提供「會打順風球的定義」 也可以貼統計出來給大家討論
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06/14 15:57, , 14F
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06/14 15:58, , 15F
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順風贏球的機率本來就比較大 可以這樣理解吧
而我想統計的是 誰「比較」多的贏球是在順風時→誰比較會打順風球
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06/14 15:58, , 16F
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↑這是?望不吝賜教
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摁 這是新的見解
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06/14 16:04, , 21F
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06/14 16:04, , 22F
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這... 如果是這樣 我想到一套公式
贏球數據好:順風球
贏球數據差:抱大腿
輸球數據好:不顧團隊,自私刷數據
輸球數據差:神隱,只會打順風球
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06/14 16:10, , 25F
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06/14 16:10, , 26F
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所以具體公式是如何計算?資料要參考詳細play by play?
有在做這種統計的網站嗎?
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06/14 16:09, , 27F
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06/14 16:12, , 29F
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W大的想法很專業,但如果有逆轉的話,通常大家比較不會說是順風贏球吧
另外按照W大定義
順風贏球像是大起大落,手感來了誰都擋不住
非順風還能贏球的人 個人特質是「穩定」,在「逆境」時還有穩定的效率表現
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06/14 16:26, , 37F
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我可以理解成:
順風的嚴格定義=「分差-雙方得分次數」的斜率為正吧
但就一般人來說 如果第一節大勝20分 最後雖被追到勝分5分贏得勝利 也算是順風球?
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06/14 16:36, , 38F
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我知道啊O_O │
我的意思是 但一般人也會稱這樣的情況叫順風球吧───┘
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06/14 16:40, , 40F
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可能我的定義比較沒有那麼嚴謹和科學
我的順風意思比較偏向在比賽過程能一直保持勝分差,雙方沒有膠著
勝隊在心理上比較有優勢,沒有壓力,獲勝過程順遂
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噓
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噓
06/14 17:13, , 46F
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懶得解釋 但不會懶的噓XD
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這....XDDD
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氣勢說!! 這也是另一種解釋
所以「只會打順風球」可以解釋成只能在氣勢被帶動起來時才能打好球
而不是一開始帶動氣勢的那個人
之所以想量化 是因為想統計打順風球的次數和機率
但若用氣勢的定義 除了所有比賽都看完全程 很難去進行客觀紀錄和驗證
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LYS
這妖僧根本唯恐天下不亂 雙方皆糗 啥風他都吹 都快合成一副大四喜了
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噓
06/14 21:37, , 68F
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你有看懂嗎ˊ_______ˋ
這統計代表
熱火有6/14是在非順風贏球
馬刺有4/14是在非順風贏球
另外 看輸球的box沒意義啊
因為輸球的情況一定就是「非順風的情況輸球啊」
這要統計啥啊...
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06/14 21:38, , 69F
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06/14 22:07, , 70F
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※ 編輯: sunrise26sq 來自: 111.249.196.218 (06/14 23:00)
噓
06/14 23:47, , 71F
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06/15 21:06, , 72F
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