[外電] 老驥伏櫪，志在千里。
※ [本文轉錄自 Lakers 看板 #1DPeOjZd ]
作者: LABOYS (洛城浪子) 看板: Lakers
標題: [外電] 老驥伏櫪，志在千里。
時間: Fri Feb 25 00:24:01 2011
Kobe just one star defying aging curve
老驥伏櫪，志在千里。
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/110128&sportCat=nba
By Bill Simmons ESPN.com
I was there when it happened to Julius Erving: Nov. 9, 1984, Philly at
Boston, the night his five-year rivalry with Larry Bird went up in smoke.
Bird outscored Erving 42-6 in three quarters before words were exchanged and,
incredibly, two of the league's biggest stars started fighting at midcourt.
Imagine two kids getting their picture taken with Santa, then imagine their
faces if Santa got into a brawl with the Easter Bunny. That was Bird fighting
Erving. Their scuffle was so preposterous that it overshadowed the real
story: Julius Erving had gone through The Change. He was great, and then he
wasn't. And it happened overnight.
回到1984年-11月-9日，塞爾提克坐鎮主場迎戰費城七六人，在5年的不斷較勁後，
J博士和大鳥間的對抗在這晚白熱化，當時拎北就在現場啊。
前三節裡大鳥在得分上以42-6遙遙領先了J博士，而隨著一些“言語上的問候”，
不可思議的一幕出現了，當時聯盟裡最耀眼的倆球星居然在中場直接纏上了。
唔，先設想一下有兩個剛剛和聖誕老人合影留念的小鬼頭，
然後再腦補一下聖誕老人和復活節兔子幹架的場面……
沒錯，大鳥和J博士當時就是那副德行。
那場鬧劇是如此地驚世駭俗以至於甚至掩蓋了當天的真相：
J博士就是在那晚完成了他的“轉型”，
前一刻他仍是最好的球員，但之後他不再是了，而這就發生在一夜之間。
Sift through NBA history and you'll notice that, for modern superstars, The
Change occurred somewhere between the 900th and 1,200th career game
(including playoffs) for everyone except Karl Malone and John Stockton, who
fended it off because of their extraordinary work ethics, their signature
play (an unstoppable pick-and-roll that they could have run into their 50s),
Utah's altitude (which may have given them a conditioning advantage) and the
little-known fact John Stockton is actually an alien. An NBA career is really
pressure over time: knees are Shawshank's prison wall, games are Andy's rock
hammer, and that hammer just keeps chipping away. Eventually, your career
gives out. That's the rule.
綜觀NBA歷史你會發現，就現今的超級球星們來說，
那個分水嶺通常會在生涯第900場~1200場（包括季後賽）之間出現，
當然這是針對馬龍和老史那兩個傢伙以外的球員們說的，
憑藉超乎尋常的理念、指標性的打法
（那種近乎無解的擋拆配合幾乎可以讓他們玩到50歲啊囧）、
鐵血的猶他精神（這在某種程度上也給了他們在自我調節上的優勢）
以及鮮為人知的一個事實：
其實老史天殺的根本是個外星人啊！他們成功地逃過了以上鐵律。
但每一段NBA旅程裡的艱苦都是騙不了人的：如果說膝蓋是Shawshank's prison的牆，
那麼日復一日的比賽就是安迪手中的石錘，錘子經年累月地敲打著日漸脆弱的壁壘，
最終，你的生涯也就隨之走到了盡頭，這就是遊戲規則。
(註：刺激1995的梗，一部好電影。)
Or, that was the rule. Because Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Steve Nash, Dirk
Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant are fending off that rock hammer in ways that have
to make us wonder if we're headed for a historical revamping along the lines
of the steroids era blowing up baseball like an "Angry Birds" grenade.
Everything we thought we knew about basketball is changing ... and for all
the right reasons, too. (Well, unless you're Rashard Lewis and O.J. Mayo.)
They are beneficiaries of undeniable advantages over everyone who played
before them: better doctors, surgical procedures, dieting, drug testing,
trainers, computers, video equipment, workout equipment, workout regiments,
airplanes ... even pillows are better.
或者我應該說：這些“曾經是” 遊戲規則。
因為雷槍、PP、飄髮哥、司機以及科科等人正各出奇招的躲開那些小錘子，
幾乎讓我們產生職棒的類固醇事件將要歷史性地全面再現的錯覺，
就像“Angry Birds"似的遍地開花啊。(註：某手機遊戲。)
我們固有的那些籃球理念正在改變…基於所有那些合理的理由
（唔，如果你是2000萬或是O.J. Mayo，那還是當我沒說好了），相較於前人，
他們正受益於更好的醫療團隊以及治療手段、合理的飲食規劃、藥檢、訓練師、
電腦技術的應用、攝影設備、訓練器材、訓練團隊、交通工具……
甚至連現在的枕頭都比以前舒服。
Check out the career numbers (regular season and playoffs) for Allen, Pierce,
Nash, Nowitzki and Bryant for games, minutes, minutes per game and seasons
played.
讓我們來看看雷槍、PP、Nash、司機以及科科的一些生涯資料—
總出場數、總分鐘數、場均上場時間以及已打了多少年頭（資料包括季賽以及季後賽）：
AGING STARS
現役老骨頭戰隊
RS Min = regular season minutes; PL Min = playoff minutes; RS MPG = regular
season minutes per game; PL MPG = playoffs minutes per game
RS Min = 季賽總計出場時間（分鐘數）；PL Min = 季後賽總計出場時間；
RS MPG = 季賽的平均上場時間；PL MPG = 季後賽的平均上場時間
Player Games Playoffs RS Min PL Min RS MPG PL MPG Seasons
Bryant 1067 198 38,887 7,811 36.5 39.4 14
Allen 1067 101 39,535 3,987 37.1 39.5 15
Nash 1057 118 33,055 4,228 31.3 35.8 15
Nowitzki 956 103 34,980 4,301 36.6 41.8 12
Pierce 929 101 34,480 4,032 37.1 39.9 12
All right, get ready for a second group of perimeter stars that also includes
two other pieces of information: the season they went through The Change, as
well as their drop in win shares from the previous season. (Note: I'm not a
huge fan of win shares, especially because the stat doesn't show how someone
like Jason Kidd or Gary Payton slipped defensively almost overnight, but it's
the simplest statistical way to show a player's decline.) And keep in mind,
Bird's career and Magic's career ended prematurely; Jordan missed multiple
seasons because of his two retirements; and Kidd is obviously still playing
(post-Change). Anyway ...
讓我們再來看看第二組資料，同樣是針對外線球員們，多加了兩欄數據：
分別是衰退開始的賽季以及相比前一季，他們的WS（勝利貢獻值） 到底下降了多少
（話說其實我個人並不是很推崇所謂WS，因為這類資料其實壓根無法體現諸如接生小孩、
手套這類整晚都是如何在防守端進行各種裝死和臥底行動的，
但它的確是體現球員衰退的一個最直觀的資料），
另外記住這幾點：大鳥和魔術都太早的結束了自己的職業生涯；
而由於那兩次退休，MJ起碼浪費了好幾個賽季；而接生小孩當然還是“健在”的
（但他無疑已經過了那個分水嶺）……
(註：Win Shares—— 勝利貢獻值，除了PER以外最常被用來衡量球員表現的一項分析指
數，這個值是根據球隊勝場數、每個球員的詳細技術統計等諸多資料分析出的，結合了球
隊戰績以及個人在球隊獲勝中起到的作用，分為進攻勝利貢獻值(Offensive Win Shares)
和防守勝利貢獻值（Defensive Win Shares）；而兩者相加即為一個球員的最終勝利貢獻
值。)
STARS OF YESTERDAY
昨日星辰
Change = Season in which "The Change" in the player's productivity took
place; WS = Decline in win shares from the previous season.
Change = 此球員的產能出現明顯下降是在哪個賽季。
WS = 和前一個賽季相比WS的下降值 。
Player Games Play RS Min PL Min RS MPG PL MPG Seasons Change WS
Stockton 1504 182 47,674 6,398 31.8 35.8 19 14 -5.6
Miller 1389 144 47,619 5,308 34.3 36.9 18 16 -0.8
Payton 1335 154 47,417 5,482 35.3 35.6 17 13 -3.5
Erving 1243 189 45,227 7,352 36.4 38.9 16 14 -2.5
Kidd 1231 121 45,510 4,953 37.0 40.9 17 14 -3.4
Pippen 1178 208 41,069 8,105 34.9 39.0 17 12 -1.7
Drexler 1086 145 37,537 5,572 34.6 38.4 15 13 -5.2
Wilkins 1074 56 38,113 2,172 35.5 38.8 15 13 -2.1
Jordan 1072 179 41,010 7,474 38.3 41.8 15 14 -12.5
Thomas 979 111 35,516 4,216 36.3 38.0 13 12 -2.1
Iverson 914 76 37,485 3,205 41.1 45.1 14 13 -8.5
Magic 906 160 33,245 7,538 36.7 39.7 13 13 -11.8
Bird 897 164 34,443 6,886 38.4 42.0 13 10 -14.5
Translation: If you're a perimeter guy, no matter how talented you are, you
should go downhill between Season 12 and Season 14 unless you're a freak
shooter (like Miller) or an actual alien (like Stockton). So how do you
explain our five aforementioned career freaks? Let's look at them again
through last Wednesday's games measured by the per-36 minute averages for
points/rebounds/assists, field goals/free throws/3s attempted, and
percentages for field goals/free throws/3s, as well as advanced metrics for
usage rate (the percentage of possessions which involve that player when he's
on the floor), player efficiency and win shares per 48 minutes:
總結一下：只要是個外線球員，不管你是如何天賦異稟，
都該在進入到生涯的第12~14個賽季後開始走下坡，除非你是個怪物型的射手（比如神米）
或者真正的外星人（比如老史）。
好吧，那上面提到的那5個怪胎要怎麼解釋呢？
呃……讓我們再來看看上週三的比賽情況，這次被列入比較的有以下這些資料：
（在平均36分鐘的上場時間內）得分/籃板/助攻數，投籃/罰球/3分的出手次數，
以及各自的命中率情況，除此之外還加入了USG=Usage Rate，球員效率(注：即所謂PER值)
以及每48分鐘內的WS數值：
(註：Usage Rate—表示的是每48分鐘球員所佔用的“進攻回合（possession）”次數，包
括出手次數、失誤數以及助攻，簡單來說，通過這個數值一般即可粗略估計一個球員在進
攻端所承擔的任務有多重，換句話來說，USG數目最高的往往代表的就是所謂球隊的老大)
ALMOST AS GOOD AS EVER
結果顯示他們幾乎出色的一如往昔：
http://i.imgur.com/A67fH.png
(註：表格整理實在太煩了。)
I know, I know. You expected a sports column, not an AP math exam. But for
each player, the differences between 2008 and 2011 are so subtle, you can
barely tell the years apart. If Jennifer Aniston looks as good three years
from now as she does right now, you'll know she had some work done. If
Obama's hair doesn't look any grayer than it does right now, you'll know he
colored it. But five elite players defying all laws of career gravity like
that?
安啦安啦，我知道你是來看體育專欄而不是數學講座的。
但是你看看，他們每個人在2008年和2011年的資料都是如此接近，
之間的差距幾乎細微到分辨不出。
要是3年後的Jennifer Aniston看上去和現在的她沒有兩樣，那我們就知道她肯定整過了；
要是3年後Obama的頭髮比起現在一點兒也沒變白，那我們就知道他肯定染過了。
但是犯的著五個超級球星商量好了一起挑戰如地心引力的遊戲規則至此嗎？
Really, it's the first wave of something Malcolm Gladwell and I tackled 13
months ago, when we wondered if Kobe's generation would accomplish things we
had never seen before. I listed those modern advantages (training, dieting,
etc) and mentioned that basketball players have a better chance of succeeding
now. Gladwell piggybacked the point by bringing up capitalization rates (how
efficiently any group makes use of its talent), deciding that "there isn't
more talent than before, but there is -- for a variety of reasons -- a more
efficient use of talent." Somehow we never connected the dots to Gladwell's
concept of outliers: that outside factors can affect someone's success or
failure more than we realize.
沒錯，還真的是這樣。
就在13個月前，我還和Malcolm Gladwell聊到說科科這些人，
搞不好最後將會到達我們前所未見的高度，我列出了所有那些當代的優勢所在
（訓練、膳食管理那些）並由此認為當下的籃球運動員們的確有更好的契機去尋求成功，
Gladwell進一步結合資本化比率的概念（如何有效地運用所擁有的天賦）得出結論說：
並不是天賦本身更勝從前了，但基於多種的理由，對天賦、才華的利用率的確提高了。
但不知怎麼的，我倆當時都沒把這些看法和Galdwell關於異類的定義聯繫起來，也就是：
事實上所有的外部因素對於一個人 的成功/失敗有著遠比我們所認為的更大的影響力。
(注：Malcolm Gladwell——知名作家，著有《Outliers:The Story of Sucess 》等書。)
Nash, Pierce, Kobe, Allen and Nowitzki? NBA outliers. All of them. Their
extended primes might last 15-20 percent longer than anything we've seen from
a perimeter player before. A closer look:
Nash、PP、KB、Ray還有Dirk？就是NBA裡的所謂的異數，這5個傢伙都是。
比之我們所看過的所有的那些傢伙還異常。
他們把自己的巔峰期延長了大約15%~20%左右，現在我們一個一個來看：
Nash: He's already the career free throw percentage leader (and along with
Mark Price, one of two players over 90 percent). He should be able to
leapfrog GP, Isiah, Oscar and Magic on the career assists chart and settle at
No. 3 (behind Stockton and Kidd). And if he bumps his career field goal
percentage from 49.1 percent to 49.5 percent, he could retire as a virtual
50-40-90 guy.
飄髮哥：現在的他已經是生涯罰球命中率的第一人了（和Mark Price並列為命中率過9成
的兩人之一），他還有望超過手套、Isiah、大O以及Magic位列歷史助攻榜的第三名
（僅次於老史和接生小孩）。
而且他還把自己的生涯投籃命中率從49.1%提高到了49.5%，
很有希望成為拿著50-40-90亮眼成績單[注：即投籃命中率=50%、三分球命中率=40%、
罰球命中率=90%]退休的傢伙之一。
Twenty years ago, Nash's troublesome back would have derailed his career much
like Tim Hardaway, Kevin Johnson and Mark Price were betrayed by their
bodies. No more. In 2011, if you take care of your body, your body will take
care of you. When Steve Nash turns 38 next month, he will be playing point
guard at a level that nobody 35 years old has played it. Unless, of course,
he snaps because his bosses blew up a Western Conference finalist and saddled
him with Vince Carter (the one guy in the league who represents everything
that Nash is metaphorically against), then either retires or hires Robert
Horry to repeatedly body-block him into a scorer's table until his back gives
out.
要是在20年前，飄髮哥那種倒楣透了的背傷很可能會讓他的生涯像Hardway、Kevin
Johnson或是Mark Price一樣鬱鬱而終。
但那是過去了，在當下的2011年，只要你能小心呵護自己的身體，
它也會反過來回報你的。到下個月飄髮哥就將年滿38歲了，作為控衛，
他將打出的會是任何35歲的人都從未能接近的水準。
除非他們球隊老闆腦包並決定一手拆散現在的準西區冠軍陣容把他和卡特
（可說是聯盟裡和Nash徹底相反的一位）打包一起賣掉，如果真這麼悲劇的話，
那麼大概他也只好退休或是把自己的背拼到極限。
Pierce: This has been his "Linda Hamilton in 'Terminator 2'" season -- he
showed up in spectacular shape and swayed his Hall of Fame chances. With
Pierce's shooting touch, high basketball IQ and herky-jerky half-court game,
I see him playing at this level for two more seasons after this one, followed
by a three-year drop-off and retirement ... and if it plays out that way,
he's a serious threat to retire with 27,500 points (moving him into the top
nine all time) and official John Havlicek 2.0 status. It's true. Insert "lame
joke from a Lakers fan saying that Springfield needs to get the wheelchair
ready" here.
PP34：本季最像他的應該是《Terminator 2》裡的Linda Hamilto —
晃著他那保持得當的身形裡並且還有再創輝煌的機會。
結合他的投籃手感、極高的籃球智商以及捉摸不定的半場進攻，
我預計他將會在本賽季之後繼續保持這種狀態兩季，然後是急速下滑的3年最後退休……
如果真被我說中的話，他將很有機會在退休時帶著27，500分的生涯得分，
以及NBA歷史得分第九人的頭銜，以及公認的新名號：John Havlicek-2.0升級版，
千真萬確。
套一句湖迷的無厘頭搞笑語錄：Springfield需要先準備好輪椅和腳踏車。之類的結尾吧。
(註：Linda Hamilton—在《Terminator 2》裡飾演Sarah Connor，強悍的英雄老媽角色)
Allen: I hope you enjoyed the "Reggie Miller versus Ray Allen" debate. It's
been over for a year. Right now, Ray ranks second in 3-pointers made (2,543,
just 17 behind Reggie; nobody else is within 800 of them) and second in 3s
attempted (6,388), only he's made 40 percent of them (one of 40 players who
can say that). He's also the fourth-best free throw shooter ever (89.4
percent). Given his phenomenal work ethic, we can safely say 25,000 points,
3,000 made 3s and a 45-40-90 career percentages are in play. I just don't
think we're seeing that again. His extended prime made him the most efficient
shooting guard who ever lived; throw in his clutch shooting numbers (see
sidebar) and it's been a wildly underrated career.
雷槍：Ray 啊，對於神米vs雷槍的三分球紀錄你是不是有在期待呢？我希望是，好吧，
這事情已經被說了有一年了，截止到現在(註：當然大家都知道雷槍已經超車了。)，
Ray仍是命中三分球第二多的 （2543個，僅僅落後神米17個，
而其他人離得最近的都差了他們800個），他的三分出手次數亦是第二多（6388次），
命中率達到4成（40個待評者中唯一一個做到的），
同時他還是歷史第四好的罰球球員（命中率：89.4%）。
考慮到他目前出色的狀態，我們可以很負責任地說生涯得分達到25，000分、
命中3000個三分球、生涯命中率45-40-90基本是跑不掉了。
我只是不知道如此榮景我們還會不會再看到，
延長的巔峰期使他成為了有史以來效率最佳的SG。
Other than Reggie, you know who the biggest loser is here? Sam Presti, who
made a totally defensible trade when he was rebuilding Seattle around Kevin
Durant in 2007 (Allen and the rights to Glen Davis for the rights to Jeff
Green, Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak's expiring contract) and never
imagined he was giving up five or six more killer Ray Allen seasons. I can't
wait for the "40 for 40" documentary about the 2007 draft in 10 years.
除了神米，知道還有誰也哭哭了嗎？Sam Presti(注：雷霆GM)，當他在2007年放棄雷槍，
用他加上Glen Davis換來Jeff Green、Delonte West以及合同到期的Wally Szczerbiak，
他絕對不會想到他放棄的是未來5年甚至6年的Ray-殺手-Allen。
我都等不及看未來10年他們07年"40 for 40"方案的成果了。
Nowitzki: I can't decide if he's moving into the Barkley/Malone discussion
(for best modern power forward not named Tim Duncan or Larry Bird) or the
Larry Bird/Rick Barry discussion (for best offensive forward ever), but
there's definitely been some moving. It's a junior version of the
Kobe/Michael thing: Nowitzki's peak can't come close to matching Bird's peak,
but his freaky consistency and legendary summer work ethic makes a
Bird/Nowitzki career comparison closer than you'd think.
司機：我不知道他是不是打算跑去巴克利/馬龍之爭裡摻上一咖什麼的。
（除了TD/大鳥之外的最佳前鋒），但這的確值得考量一下，就像Kobe/MJ之爭的初階版：
雖然司機可能永遠無法達到巴克利曾經的巔峰狀態，但憑藉超乎尋常的持久、
為人稱道的暑期私自努力，使得大鳥/司機的生涯比較這類東西幾乎已經呼之欲出了。
For 11 straight seasons, he's been the best player on a contender. Grab any
Dirk season from 2001 to 2011 and it will look something close to his career
numbers (22.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 48 percent FG, 38 percent 3FG, 88 percent FT,
23.8 PER, 0.213 WS/48, 27.0 usage rate, 58.1 true shooting). And he hasn't
slipped even a little. I asked ESPN's Marc Stein, the Gayle to Dirk's Oprah,
whether 2011 Dirk looks any different than 2001 Dirk or 2007 Dirk. His
response: "He's a little creakier, but it's not like his first step was ever
the key to his game. He's shooting the ball as well as he ever has. He's like
a surgeon now, he just carves up anything you throw at him. [Erik] Spoelstra
told me that, too -- he said the stuff [Miami] did in 2006 just doesn't work
anymore."
連續11個賽季，他一直都是最佳球員的有力競爭者，從2001~2011間隨便挑一個賽季，
他的表現都一如既往的穩定且相當接近生涯平均數據
（22.6分、8.3個籃板、48%的投籃命中率、38%的三分球命中率、88%的罰球命中率、
23.8的效率、每48分鐘的 WS=0.213、USG=27以及58.1%的實際命中率）
而且他看起來一點都沒有下滑，我曾詢問ESPN的Marc Stein，
比起2001年或是2007年的他，2011版的司機看起來有啥不同嗎？他的回答是：
“看得出有點兒老態了，但那沒啥大不了的，他從來不是靠第一步過人吃飯的不是嗎，
他的投籃和從前一樣好，就像個外科醫生一樣，
現在的他會把所有扔到他面前的東西統統切碎。"
Erik[註：熱火教練]亦有同感，他曾告訴我：
06年時我們用來對付他的招數現在已經無法奏效了。”
Quick tangent: For whatever reason, basketball fans don't care about career
NBA numbers like baseball fans care about baseball numbers. I see four
reasons for this: (1) baseball has been around almost twice as long as
basketball; (2) baseball's signature threshold numbers are famously
identifiable (500, 3,000 and 300), as are the players who broke its major
records, whereas your average sports fan would struggle to answer questions
like "Who leads the NBA in career scoring?"; (3) statistics matter more in
baseball because it's an individual sport; and (4) we need to throw ourselves
into baseball statistics because the sport itself is so f------ boring. If we
were eating lunch and I told you, "Johnny Damon has 2,571 hits right now,"
that would mean something to you. If you're a true baseball fan, you would
process that information in 0.008 seconds and think, "He needs 429 for 3,000,
that's doable!" But if I told you "Dirk Nowitzki has 21,925 points right
now," you wouldn't think anything other than, "That's a lot."
跑個題：不知道為啥，籃球迷們其實不怎麼在意生涯數據，
不像棒球迷那樣對此斤斤計較，我估計原因有四：
1、棒球有著更為悠久的歷史，幾乎是籃球歷史的2倍。
2、棒球的標誌性門檻資料更為人所知（像500，3000，300這類的。）
3、相比籃球，資料統計在棒球上更有參考價值，因為更傾向於“個人表現” 。
4、我們需要讓自己去關注那些資料，因為棒球這玩意兒本身實在是TMD有夠無聊。
(註：這是作者說的，我只是照翻。)
如果我倆正吃著午餐，然後我告訴你說：
“Johnny Damon已經累計打出2571支安打了。”你能知道我在說啥，
而且如果你是個真正的棒球迷的話，甚至要不了0.008秒你就會想：
“哇靠，再來429支就滿3000支安打了耶，就快達到了勒。”
但如果我告訴你說：“司機目前生涯總分已經有21，925分了，”
除了：“哇喔~聽起來還真多分的阿”以外，你還能做什麼反應嗎？
Well, only 19 players have ever topped 25,000 points. Only 10 players (I'm
including Kobe, who will get it next week) have topped 27,000. Only five
players have topped 30,000. Only two (Kareem and Mailman) have topped 32,500.
And then there's Dirk, who should be close to 23,000 by the end of this
season and grinding out 1,700-1,900 points for at least three after that ...
and we haven't even covered the final phase of his career, his late 30s, when
he hangs on for an extra four years as the greatest version of Sam Perkins
ever. Barring injury, we'll have our first foreign-born player in the 30,000
Point Club. Throw in longevity, durability and eye-popping shooting
percentages (for his career, he's a 48-38-88 guy right now) and suddenly
we're talking about one of the best 15-18 players ever and the best
foreign-born player other than Hakeem. Pretty high stakes. Twenty years ago?
He'd already be in the Fat Sam Perkins stage. With equally horrible hair.
順便說一下，能拿到25000分以上的目前也就19個人而已，
而能超過27000分的更是只有10人（我把Kobe也算上了，他應該會在下周突破這個數字），
能超過30000分的只有5人，而超過32500分的只有兩枚（天勾和郵差），
那麼司機現在在哪兒呢？不出意外的話他將會在本賽季結束時來到23000分左右，
然後在接下來的至少3年裡再添個1700~1900分……我們甚至還沒說到他的生涯末期呢，
要是他能學學Sam Perkins再堅持個4 年什麼的，只要沒有傷病影響，
我們將有機會看到第一個進入3萬分俱樂部的外籍球員。
考慮到他持久、穩定且令人吃驚的命中率（生涯迄今：48-38-88），
我們在這裡說的這位將位列史上最好球員第15~18名。
而且可能是除了大夢之外最好的外籍球員。Wow，這定位可真的不低了，
但要擺在20年前，他也許就是個發福版的Sam Perkins配上遜到掉渣的髮型。
Last footnote on Dirk: With advanced metrics slowly taking over basketball
for better and worse, Dirk should be one of the big retroactive winners
historically, a little like how the sneaky-great Tim Raines dropped the
"sneaky" about two years and 550 homicidally impassioned pro-Raines
sabermetric essays ago. I was there for Dirk, and I was there for Bird. It's
no contest. (These three YouTube clips explain everything: "Why You Don't
Mess With Larry Bird," "Larry Bird 47 Points vs. Portland (the Left-handed
Game)" and "Larry Bird Greatest Passer of All-Time.") But Nowitzki's PER, win
shares and true shooting percentages are better, and as long as you throw out
MVPs, titles and overall impact, and you skew longevity, you can make a great
case that Dirk Nowitzki was better than Larry Bird. I will now light my
game-worn Bird jersey on fire with me in it.
關於司機的最後註腳：隨著那些統計手段的不斷進化（or退化），從歷史角度來說，
司機將很可能會是被受益方的一員，有點兒類似Tim Raine那些奇怪的榮譽。
我當然是支持司機的，同樣我也支持大鳥，這之間其實壓根不存在什麼競爭啊！
（這3個YouTube剪輯就足以說明一切了：
“為什麼叫你絕對不要惹大鳥”、
“大鳥47分血洗波特蘭（左手之戰）”
“大鳥：史上最佳傳球者”），(註：連結點原文。)
儘管司機的PER、WS以及實際命中率可能都更好看，但就算撇開所有那些MVP頭銜、
總冠軍數以及影響力，你也絕對沒辦法歪曲說司機比大鳥更偉大，
要是你真有這麼狠的話，我現在就穿著大鳥在比賽中穿過的球衣點火燒自己。
(註：Tim Raine—職棒大聯盟過去的明星左外野手，但卻由於明顯的短板（長打）等原因
遲遲未能進入名人堂，其實放在這裡是用作影射“過譽”的球員。)
Bryant: Not much at stake historically other than MJ's six rings, Kareem's
scoring record, Magic's "Greatest Laker Ever" title and Jordan's undisputed
title as the GOAT. You know, just the usual stuff. Even with some subtle
signs of slippage -- specifically, his 3-point accuracy and his
willingness/ability to get to the line, both reflections of an ailing right
knee -- when I caught him in person on Tuesday night (the Utah blowout), it
looked like the same Old New Kobe to me: he scored 21 points in 26 minutes,
controlled the game and even shifted into Eff You Mode once (when Raja Bell
angered him in the third quarter, prompting Kobe to demand the ball and then
shoot a gorgeous 12-foot turnaround in his mug).
科科：MJ的六戒、天鉤的得分記錄、魔術的“史上最佳湖人”之譽，
以及MJ無可辯駁的“籃球之神”頭銜…你知道的，還能有些啥呢，
歷史上還能被他視作追逐目標的也就剩下這幾個了吧。
雖然的確有些細微的衰退跡象—說的更準確點，他的三分球準度、獲得罰球的次數還有在
罰球線上的準度—顯然這兩者都是因為他那狀況不佳的右膝—儘管如此，當我週二晚上（
“爵士之夜”）在私底下逮住他的時候，他看起來還是那個活蹦亂跳的小科科啊：
他只用了26分鐘就拿下21分，控制著比賽節奏甚至還開啟了“別擋路之快給老子閃開”
模式一次。
（當Bell在第三節裡激怒了他，
他隨即要球並藉著一記12呎翻身跳投丟在Raja的頭上進球。）。
He's gone from being a breakaway running back to being one of those guys who
grinds out 4.4 yards a carry. Keep the chains moving. That's all he does now.
It's like he calculated exactly how many jumps his knees had left, put his
last 435 or so quality bursts in reserve like Vin Diesel's nitrous canister
in a "Fast and Furious" movie, then vowed never to break one out unless he
absolutely needed it. On a breakaway in the third quarter on Tuesday, with
fans screaming for a dunk, Kobe jumped off two feet and gingerly shoved the
ball through the rim. Sorry, everybody. You can't waste that nitrous canister
switch in a blowout.
現在的他更多地會像其他那些人一樣選擇在4.4碼（註：約等於12呎）處跳投，
而不再是一味尋求擺脫對手。
看上去就像是他精確地計算出了自己膝蓋還能承受的跳躍次數，
然後就像Vin Diesel在電影《Fast and Furious》裡做的那樣，
把剩下的435次或是幾次額度小心收好，然後不到關鍵時刻絕不輕易使出來。
週二第三節裡的這幕就是如此，在擺脫防守之後雖然球迷們都尖叫著要求：
“灌一個！”科科最終還是選擇跳了大概2英尺然後把球輕鬆放進。
抱歉了各位，在如此大勝的夜晚怎能隨便放大招啊，這不是浪費嗎~？
(註：Fast and Furious——《玩命關頭》，講述公路飆車的系列電影，
Vin Diesel在片中飾演的是一位黑幫老大。)
Maybe he'll never soar through the air like he once did, and maybe he no
longer has the luxury of saying, "We need a basket -- I think I'll just beat
my guy off the dribble, get into the paint and beat their big guys to the
rim" like you or I would decide to go grocery shopping. But Kobe's arsenal of
Jedi Mind Trick upfakes, stutter-steps, spin moves and start-and-stops rivals
everything Jordan had. He brings it every quarter and every play, much like
Jordan did, which is the highest compliment you can give somebody. And he
knows Gasol, Fisher, Odom and Bynum so well by now that, as crazy as it
sounds, Kobe's chemistry with his teammates might be his single best asset.
也許他不再能像過去那樣無視引力般的飛翔，
也許他無法再輕描淡寫的說著打爆對手內線的豪語，
好比你我之流說要去便利商店買罐飲料什麼的，
但科科軍械庫裡的那些JediMind Trick式的精妙假動作、墊步變速、轉身過人，
啟動-急停都和MJ曾有的那些如出一轍，每一節、每一場他不斷獻上這些演出，
就像MJ曾經做過的那樣，這幾乎可說是你所能給出的最高的讚譽。
而且現在的他是如此的瞭解Gasol、Fisher、Odom和Bynum，瞭解他們每一個人，
這就像聽起來地一樣瘋狂，
但和隊友們間的化學反應或許可算是他此刻手上最好的加成。
You could say he's delivering nearly the same production as before, just in a
slightly different way: a less dominant version of Jordan's final Chicago
season. For All-Star Weekend next month, NBA.com is creating highlight reels
from every Kobe season since 1997; these sneak peeks from 1998 (his second
season, when he had Griffin-like ups) and 2005 (his athletic prime)
illustrate how much his game has changed over the years. Kobe 1.0 relied on
phenomenal athletic ability alone. Kobe 2.0 blended that athletic ability
with a scorer's mentality. Kobe 3.0 was basically Kobe 2.0 with better
teammates and a better attitude. Now we're watching Kobe 4.0, someone who
should be slipping ... only he wouldn't let it happen.
可以這麼說吧，他獻上的作品一如既往，只是製作方法稍有不同：
有那麼點兒像MJ在芝加哥的最後一季。
為了之後的全明星賽，NBA.com正在趕工製作科科自1997年以來的精彩集錦；
從1998年（他的第二季，那時的他跳得就像幹籃哥那麼高）
到2005年（他個人運動生涯的巔峰之作），
所有那些點點滴滴清楚地展示了這些年來他的打法歷經了多大的調整和改變。
如果說：
Kobe 1.0蘊含的是作為一名運動員的驚人天賦及能力；
Kobe 2.0則把這些天賦以得分能力的形式展現得淋漓盡致、渾然天成；
Kobe 3.0基本上就是2.0版加上更好的隊友以及更優的心態；
我們現在看到的是Kobe 4.0，雖然照理說是該老化了……但對於他顯然不適用，
他才不會允許那種事情發生呢。
Of course, if you believe what Kobe told Peter Vecsey last week in a rare
interview, his body is starting to break down. Kobe admitted that he didn't
practice for the first two months of the season and "has very little
cartilage under his right kneecap, it's basically bone on bone." Hmmmmmm.
Could there be some gamesmanship there? Why would Kobe -- the guy who kept
everything under wraps for so many years, the guy who tried to pretend last
spring that beating Boston didn't matter because he didn't want to show any
signs of weakness -- suddenly be admitting his mortality and pulling the Fred
Sanford Memorial "Look Out Elizabeth, I'm Coming To Join You!" routine?
當然啦，如果你相信他上周在少見的採訪中告訴Peter Vecsey的那些，
什麼他的體能已經開始不行了。
他還承認自己在過去的兩個月裡都沒參加訓練因為
“右膝髕骨下面的軟骨已經所剩無幾，現在基本上就是骨頭撞骨頭了。”
唔……有沒有可能這是某種煙霧彈？
但是為啥像科科這樣一個：
—多年來總把一切都藏在心底鮮少吐露，
而且就在去年春天還嘴硬說打贏賽隊並沒有特殊意義這類，
僅僅為了不暴露任何可能的脆弱的人—會坦白？
他突然轉性啦？
Whatever his shelf life looks like, one thing's for sure: We've never seen
anyone do this before. No perimeter player has ever made first- or
second-team All-NBA after passing the 1,200-game mark; Kobe will almost
definitely do it this year. He's going to hit 27,000 points next week in a
season in which he passed Oscar, 'Nique, Ice, Hondo and (this weekend) Hakeem
on the list. And he's fighting off The Change like nobody since Karl Malone.
不管他的保存期限還有多久，可以確定的一點是：
我們從沒看過有人能做到他現在做到的。
從來沒有哪個外線球員能在打了超過1200場比賽後依然可以躋身聯盟第一線，
（即使第二線也沒人做到過）；沒意外的話，科科今年就能填補這個空白。
下周他就將要跨過27000分的門檻，本賽季至今他已經超過了大O還有大夢
（就在這個週末），他也在繼續為了“謝絕轉型”而奮鬥，
而這在馬龍之後還從來沒有別人做到過。
Full confession: I never liked Kobe. (Crap, you knew that. I forgot.) But
it's tough watching any great player go through The Change. Especially in
basketball, the most naked of our professional sports: Just 10 players
wearing sleeveless jerseys and shorts, with fans sitting as close as three
feet away and devouring every expression, every nuance, every move,
everything. When a baseball player slips, we give him the benefit of the
doubt: Maybe it's a slump, maybe it's his catcher, maybe his arm is bothering
him, maybe he's playing in the wrong ballpark ... you could never
definitively say, "Write that guy off." Same for a football player: Maybe his
quarterback sucks, maybe his hammy is bothering him, maybe it's the offense,
maybe it's the system, maybe it's his offensive line, maybe it's his coach.
We realize after the fact football players are washed up, or right at the
very end. In basketball, you know right away.
跟你說真的：我從來不喜歡Kobe（科科，我忘了你早就知道了。），
但看著偉大的球員跨過那個分水嶺總是讓人難受的，不管那是誰。
尤其是籃球，這可是競技體育裡穿得最清涼的一群啊：
10個只穿著無袖球衣加短褲的傢伙，而球迷們就坐在三英尺外，每一個表情、
每一個細微的動作、每一次移動、所有的一切都無所遁形。
當一個棒球選手下滑的時候，我們往往不吝於給予以下這些合理懷疑：也許只是低潮期、
也許是捕手的問題、也許他的手臂不太舒服、也許只是他和這個球場氣場不合…
你永遠不會這麼說：“把那傢伙報廢算了”，
還有美式足球選手也是這樣：也許是他們的四分衛太廢了，也許他的大腿有點不適、
也許是進攻問題，我們往往在他們死在沙灘上的那刻才發現原來已經後浪推前浪了。
但在籃球場上，你瞬間就能洞悉一切。
I thought that day was coming for Kobe Bryant. He had other ideas. So did
Nash, Pierce, Nowitzki and Allen. Everything we ever thought we knew about
basketball is being rewritten. Twelve-year primes are going to stretch to 15.
Fifteen-year careers are going to stretch past 20. The 20,000 Point Club will
become the 30,000 Point Club. It's not just that records will be made and
stretched, or that we'll be seeing things we've never seen before. For the
first time, basketball records might actually start mattering beyond "100
points," "72 wins," "33 straight," "11 rings" and "However Many Points Kareem
Ended Up With."
我曾以為科科的“大限那天”已經到了，結果看來顯然還沒…
當然不是科科一個人打了我的臉，還有飄髮哥、雷槍、PP和司機，他們都是同一掛的。
我們對於籃球的一切舊識都在被重新書寫，12年的黃金期延長到了15年；
15年的生涯延長到了20年；2萬分俱樂部成了3萬分俱樂部，
不僅僅是所有那些記錄的創造和超越，我們正見證著那些前所未見的東西 一 成為現實。
而這也許會是第一次，
籃球記錄本身會比“100分”、“72勝”、“33連勝”、“11戒”以及
“不管賈霸能拿到多少分”那些榮耀更加的意義非凡。
And if you want to think about something truly frightening, consider the
following four things ...
最後，如果你想看些驚悚的玩意兒好提提神，考慮一下以下這4條……
1. LeBron James passed 16,000 points a few weeks ago. It took him fewer than
600 games.
1.幾周前，LBJ剛拿到了生涯的16000分，而且只花了大概600場不到。
2. Barring injury and a prolonged lockout, by the end of his 10th season
(2012-13), LeBron should be sitting at 22,000 points.
2.如果沒什麼傷病或是長期待業的話，在他的第十個賽季結束時（2012-13賽季），
他將會手持22000分。
3. If LeBron plays the next seven and a half seasons 85 percent as well as he
played the previous seven and a half seasons, he'll be sitting at 30,000
points, 7,500 assists and 7,500 rebounds ... and he'll be 33 years old. A few
months older than Kobe right now.
3.如果在未來的7個半賽季裡，他能打出前7.5個賽季的85%的水準，
那麼當他打完15年時，他應該能拿到30000分、7500助攻、7500個籃板……
到時候他33歲，只比現在的Kobe再老上幾個月。
4. Like it or not, we are all going to be witnesses.
4. 不管你喜不喜歡，我們都將會見證這一切。
--
我再也不翻這傢伙的文，有夠難。
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◆ From: 140.113.123.33
※ 編輯: LABOYS 來自: 140.113.123.33 (02/25 00:56)
推
02/25 00:56, , 1F
02/25 00:56, 1F
→
02/25 00:56, , 2F
02/25 00:56, 2F
推
02/25 00:57, , 3F
02/25 00:57, 3F
推
02/25 00:57, , 4F
02/25 00:57, 4F
→
02/25 00:57, , 5F
02/25 00:57, 5F
→
02/25 00:57, , 6F
02/25 00:57, 6F
推
02/25 00:58, , 7F
02/25 00:58, 7F
→
02/25 00:58, , 8F
02/25 00:58, 8F
→
02/25 00:59, , 9F
02/25 00:59, 9F
→
02/25 00:59, , 10F
02/25 00:59, 10F
→
02/25 01:00, , 11F
02/25 01:00, 11F
推
02/25 01:00, , 12F
02/25 01:00, 12F
※ 編輯: LABOYS 來自: 140.113.123.33 (02/25 01:03)
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02/25 01:03, , 13F
02/25 01:03, 13F
推
02/25 01:04, , 14F
02/25 01:04, 14F
推
02/25 01:05, , 15F
02/25 01:05, 15F
推
02/25 01:05, , 16F
02/25 01:05, 16F
※ 編輯: LABOYS 來自: 140.113.123.33 (02/25 01:06)
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02/25 01:06, , 17F
02/25 01:06, 17F
推
02/25 01:08, , 18F
02/25 01:08, 18F
推
02/25 01:10, , 19F
02/25 01:10, 19F
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02/25 01:10, , 20F
02/25 01:10, 20F
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02/25 01:11, , 21F
02/25 01:11, 21F
→
02/25 01:11, , 22F
02/25 01:11, 22F
推
02/25 01:11, , 23F
02/25 01:11, 23F
推
02/25 01:11, , 24F
02/25 01:11, 24F
thx
推
02/25 01:14, , 25F
02/25 01:14, 25F
推
02/25 01:14, , 26F
02/25 01:14, 26F
推
02/25 01:14, , 27F
02/25 01:14, 27F
推
02/25 01:14, , 28F
02/25 01:14, 28F
推
02/25 01:15, , 29F
02/25 01:15, 29F
推
02/25 01:15, , 30F
02/25 01:15, 30F
推
02/25 01:15, , 31F
02/25 01:15, 31F
推
02/25 01:15, , 32F
02/25 01:15, 32F
感謝。
→
02/25 01:16, , 33F
02/25 01:16, 33F
※ 編輯: LABOYS 來自: 140.113.123.33 (02/25 01:21)
推
02/25 01:22, , 34F
02/25 01:22, 34F
推
02/25 01:24, , 35F
02/25 01:24, 35F
→
02/25 01:24, , 36F
02/25 01:24, 36F
推
02/25 01:25, , 37F
02/25 01:25, 37F
推
02/25 01:26, , 38F
02/25 01:26, 38F
推
02/25 01:34, , 39F
02/25 01:34, 39F
推
02/25 01:43, , 40F
02/25 01:43, 40F
→
02/25 01:48, , 41F
02/25 01:48, 41F
推
02/25 01:48, , 42F
02/25 01:48, 42F
→
02/25 01:48, , 43F
02/25 01:48, 43F
推
02/25 01:52, , 44F
02/25 01:52, 44F
推
02/25 02:01, , 45F
02/25 02:01, 45F
推
02/25 02:16, , 46F
02/25 02:16, 46F
推
02/25 02:29, , 47F
02/25 02:29, 47F
推
02/25 02:44, , 48F
02/25 02:44, 48F
→
02/25 02:44, , 49F
02/25 02:44, 49F
推
02/25 03:09, , 50F
02/25 03:09, 50F
→
02/25 03:10, , 51F
02/25 03:10, 51F
推
02/25 03:10, , 52F
02/25 03:10, 52F
推
02/25 03:39, , 53F
02/25 03:39, 53F
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02/25 05:20, , 54F
02/25 05:20, 54F
推
02/25 07:15, , 55F
02/25 07:15, 55F
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02/25 07:22, , 56F
02/25 07:22, 56F
推
02/25 07:31, , 57F
02/25 07:31, 57F
推
02/25 08:34, , 58F
02/25 08:34, 58F
推
02/25 09:02, , 59F
02/25 09:02, 59F
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02/25 09:17, , 60F
02/25 09:17, 60F
推
02/25 09:49, , 61F
02/25 09:49, 61F
推
02/25 11:12, , 62F
02/25 11:12, 62F
推
02/25 11:27, , 63F
02/25 11:27, 63F
推
02/25 12:35, , 64F
02/25 12:35, 64F
推
02/25 13:36, , 65F
02/25 13:36, 65F
推
02/25 20:32, , 66F
02/25 20:32, 66F
推
02/25 21:43, , 67F
02/25 21:43, 67F
推
02/26 02:02, , 68F
02/26 02:02, 68F