[閒聊] 你不寂寞,其實沒抽到的機率沒有很低
只看標題的可以先噓OK的。
有鑑於大家抽得有點不太開心,想讓大家調整一下玩遊戲的心情。(希望別看了更糟)
正常的機率下,大家想要的卡片機率都只有2%不到(以這次主題為例)。
所以大家應該都想說50抽應該會有一張,但事實不是這樣的。(但也是啦~~就機率)
以下用的是都沒抽到去算的。(1-x%)的n次方
以我為例,想抽技反角(皇帝),看巴哈+版上的統計機率都不超過2%,我以2%來算,抽50
次。
沒抽到的機率約是36.42%,以人數來說100人都抽50次,有36人沒皇帝。
更接近版上自資料的話,1.5%來算。
是46.7%,100人都抽50次,會有46人沒抽到皇帝......。
我就是那50抽沒皇帝沒珂珂的魔法使.......,但我不孤單,我不寂寞QQ
沒抽到的機率真的不低,抽到1.5%的真的很幸運~~~~
p.s. 請別噓我機率算錯或觀念問題,我沒念過很多書又很玻璃心的>_<
只是想找個方法讓自己好過點~~
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