[討論] 軍事統計,倖存者偏差 Survival Bias
二次大戰,美軍想要增加飛機(B29)生存性
如果藉由增加機身防護,從返場機身彈孔統計最多彈著位置
增加最多彈著部位防護,可增加飛機生存性。
https://tinyurl.com/rhfpcou
左圖紅色位置為返場機身彈著統計
但當時猶太裔Dr. Abraham Wald 持反對意見:
彈著理論上是平均分布,遭最致命彈擊的飛機回不來;
也就是右圖藍色部位的彈著反而最致命。
https://www.technewsiit.com/hidden-history-abraham-wald-and-survivorship-bias
要增加防護,應從右圖藍色部位開始。
以上,著名的倖存者統計偏差
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.200.43.22 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M.1573634071.A.A87.html
→
11/13 16:42,
4年前
, 1F
11/13 16:42, 1F
The initial approach of the SRG was to look at returning American B-29
bombers and note where they had taken the most fire. The SRG noted that the
bombers they observed had fuselages (main bodies) riddled with bullet holes,
taking almost twice as many hits as the engine platforms.
B29是文章寫的
※ 編輯: dhtsai (1.200.43.22 臺灣), 11/13/2019 16:47:13
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