[閒聊] 3-6簡單樹狀圖
now:
勝 - 敗 差距
3. Heat 48 - 34 ----
4. Hawks 48 - 34 0.0
5. Celtics 48 - 34 0.0
6. Hornets 48 - 34 0.0
未來:
台灣時間 4/13 4/14
老鷹 巫師lose
綠賽 熱火win
熱火 活塞win 綠賽lose
黃蜂 魔術win
4/13 4/14 最後排名
火 鷹 蜂 3 4 5 6
┌ W W W 火 鷹 蜂 塞 (1) 0.35*0.6*0.8=0.168 x
贏 │ W W L 火 鷹 塞 蜂 (2) 0.35*0.6*0.2=0.042 x
│ W L W 火 鷹 蜂 塞 (3) 0.35*0.4*0.8=0.112 x
┌ 活 ------- W L L 火 鷹 塞 蜂 (4) 0.35*0.4*0.2=0.028 x
│ │ L W W 鷹 塞 蜂 火 (5) 0.65*0.6*0.8=0.312 x
│ 塞 │ L W L 鷹 塞 火 蜂 (6) 0.65*0.6*0.2=0.078 x
│ │ L L W 火 鷹 塞 蜂 (7) 0.65*0.4*0.8=0.208 o
│ └ L L L 火 鷹 塞 蜂 (8) 0.65*0.4*0.2=0.052 x
│
--
│ ┌ W W W 鷹 火 蜂 塞 (9) x
│ 輸 │ W W L 鷹 火 塞 蜂 (10) x
│ │ W L W 火 鷹 蜂 塞 (11) x
└ 活 ------- W L L 火 鷹 塞 蜂 (12) x
│ L W W 鷹 塞 蜂 火 (13) x
塞 │ L W L 鷹 塞 火 蜂 (14) x
│ L L W 鷹 塞 蜂 火 (15) x
└ L L L 鷹 塞 火 蜂 (16) x
*第五條路線後來確認只要老鷹贏 黃蜂贏 塞贏我們
只有老鷹49勝 獨居第三 黃蜂熱火塞都是48勝 互相抓對戰
排出為塞蜂火 所以熱火是有可能第六的!!!
而且這條路線是主觀認為機率最高的.. XD
(1)~(8)後面機率為我個人主觀看法
認為
熱火獲勝機會0.35 因為本季沒贏過Celtics +客場b2b常烙塞
老鷹獲勝機會0.6 雖然客場作戰 但老鷹狀況正好 而且牆壁狀元不會上
黃蜂獲勝機會0.8 主場作戰 + 實力差距
熱火有主場優勢機率 : 0.61
熱火對手機率: celtics=0.358 > Hornets=0.33 > Hawks=0.312
重點整理:
1. 黃蜂第一輪不可能有主場優勢
2. 最後一場 熱火只要贏Celtics 不管對活塞勝負 都享有主場優勢
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 140.113.128.189
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MiamiHeat/M.1460432387.A.B14.html
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04/12 11:44, , 1F
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04/12 11:52, , 2F
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04/12 11:53, , 3F
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04/12 11:55, , 4F
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04/12 12:09, , 12F
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※ 編輯: JustWinslow (140.113.128.189), 04/12/2016 12:12:25
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04/12 12:13, , 13F
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04/12 12:17, , 14F
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04/12 13:33, , 17F
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04/12 21:05, , 37F
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04/12 21:58, , 38F
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04/13 00:06, , 42F
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04/13 00:10, , 43F
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04/13 00:12, , 45F
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04/13 00:17, , 46F
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04/13 01:47, , 47F
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04/13 02:18, , 48F
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※ 編輯: JustWinslow (140.113.128.189), 04/13/2016 09:55:54
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04/13 10:00, , 49F
04/13 10:00, 49F
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04/13 12:57, , 50F
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04/13 12:57, , 51F
04/13 12:57, 51F
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04/13 13:48, , 52F
04/13 13:48, 52F
感謝 已修改 也加上主觀認為的機率 大家可以參考參考 XD
※ 編輯: JustWinslow (140.113.136.217), 04/13/2016 14:06:46
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04/13 14:08, , 53F
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04/14 00:08, , 62F
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04/14 10:31, , 63F
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※ 編輯: JustWinslow (140.113.128.189), 04/14/2016 10:59:48