[轉錄][囧 ] Mavs Amateur GM: Constructing …
http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=3436
It’s a nightmare for the Denver Nuggets.
It’s a pipedream for the Dallas Mavericks.
But stories of Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets considering a divorce are
now everywhere, and so exploring ways for the Mavs to get involved in a
Sign-and-Trade for the Nuggets’ superstar?
Forgive us our fantasies, but that’s part of what we do.
While DallasBasketball.com pokes around to gauge the Mavs’ real-life
involvement in this, let’s play Amateur GM:
What do the Mavs have to offer to in a Sign-and-Trade for Denver’s
Carmelo Anthony?
Let’s begin with Denver’s difficult situation. It has on the table an
offer of a three-year extension worth $65 mil. That’s a max-money deal for
a 26-year-old star who is the face of that franchise … but he’s so far
leaving that offer sitting there on that table.
We’ll work on the logical assumption that after watching LeBron James
leave Cleveland in the dust, Denver will at least consider being preemptive
here and consider trading ‘Melo before eventually losing him for virtually
nothing.
We’ll also work on the assumption that this sort of deal doesn’t
really happen until some of our “Artificial Deadlines’’ start popping up.
The mid-February trade deadline seems a sensible one here.
And before we begin, as always, The Disclaimer: The Mavs front office
has done such an admirable job of keeping the team in contention while also
accumulating assets. And the commitment made by Mark Cuban to chase a second
superstar – a commitment made not only to Dirk Nowitzki but also to the Mavs
’ fan base – is rock-solid. … but comes with no guarantees. As with Chris
Paul, this is a player with 30 suitors. There will be endless proposals. And
all along, there will be Denver in the driver’s seat to keep him now … and
when ‘Melo is free next summer, the player in the driver’s seat on his way
to the Knicks or whomever. …
Having put down the groundwork …
First, why might Denver and Dallas hesitate to do this trade?
Denver:
1) Carmelo Anthony. ‘Melo is a very special talent in this league and
the face of their franchise who helps bring in the ticket sales. There is a
long-standing philosophy held by Mavs GM Donnie Nelson: Once a team possesses
a superstar, it must never, ever let him go … because it can take a decade
to ever find another. But if ‘Melo is demanding a trade, the Nuggets may not
have many options since he has the ability to walk away for nothing this
coming summer if he so desires. (And there are so many reports out there that
suggest that he does desire to walk away.)
2) Dallas is a conference rival. It seems that this will not be an issue
if the business side of things are in favor of a trade to Dallas, but with
all else equal one would think this would make a difference. Some
organizations factor this into their trade thinking, some do not.
3) Is a deal with Dallas the best return in savings and assets that
Denver can get?
Dallas:
1) Pending further research into what might be happening behind the
scenes, it seems Dallas would be silly to not pursue this with the same vigor
that’s been used on Chris Paul. ‘Melo, in any scenario that keeps Dirk on
the Mavs, just makes too much basketball and business sense for the Mavs to
turn him down.
So why would Denver and Dallas consider doing this trade?
Denver:
1) If these reports include even a grain of truth, Carmelo Anthony is
disgruntled. If the Nuggets don’t act before ‘Melo’s contract is up, they
may lose him for nothing or get less than they might have if they were to
move him in the coming months. This takes a high level of self-awareness on
the part of the Nuggets – a self-awareness that, in retrospect, Cleveland
did not have with LeBron.
2) Having the “upper hand” in any deal. If the Nuggets try and move ‘
Melo now they will be at a distinct advantage in regard to getting the most
return for their great loss. The closer to next summer that things get, the
worse the Nuggets’ negotiating position will get. Having said that: The
trigger usually gets pulled in February. Early-season on-court success by the
Nuggets can serve as a balm.
3) Savings. Even though the Nuggets have been willing to spend in order
to try and win, money is still money and owners like having it. The Nuggets
have an opportunity to cut their payroll if they are forced to deal ‘Melo.
4) Future flexibility and assets. In trading with Dallas (and other
teams with expiring to give) the Nuggets are in a position to get out of
almost any contract they want and to also get young, cheap talent in return
(even though the Nuggets don’t have many “bad” contracts).
Dallas:
1) Carmelo Anthony as a player who “fits’’ anywhere. Melo is a great
player and a big name that would help the success, the notoriety and the
business of the Mavs. Even though there are some stats that suggest that ‘
Melo is not an elite player in this league (his highest PER has only been
22.2), he is inarguably a star. In our opinion, ‘Melo is exactly the type of
player the Mavs need on offense that can help make room for Dirk to excel –
and back to “fit,’’ Anthony would be that sort of player for any club.
(Worth noting: He often takes on tough defensive assignments and survives
those, too.) If you can get such a star to team up with Dirk, it shouldn’t
matter what you have to give up in the process—players like Melo do not
become available very often at all.
So what might a deal between Denver and Dallas realistically look like?
Worth repeating (despite today’s NBA-wide frenzy): There seems to be no rush
to do this deal before the season starts. But the closer we get to the
February trade deadline, the more things will likely pick up if Melo is still
unhappy in Denver.
The assets of the Mavs that the Nuggets can pick through and try to mix and
match to their liking:
1) $3 million cash
2) 1st round draft picks
3) Expiring contracts:
a. Tyson Chandler – 1 year @ $12,600,000 (not available for package
trade until Sept 13)
b. Caron Butler – 1 year @ $10,811,960
c. DeShawn Stevenson – 1 year @ $4,151,786
d. Jose Juan Barea – 1 year @ $1,749,600
4) Inexpensive, young talent:
a. Roddy Beaubois – 4 years @ $1,156,080 / $1,236,720 / $2,227,333 /
$3,271,952
b. Dominique Jones – 5 years @ $1,110,120 / $1,193,280 / $1,276,560 /
$2,299,085 / $3,377,355 (not available for trade until Aug 13)
c. Alexis Ajinca – 3 years @ $1,467,840 / $2,263,409 / $3,243,465 (not
available for package trade until Sept 13)
d. Ian Mahinmi – 2 years @ $884,293 / $916,100 (not available for trade
until Dec 15)
The contracts that Denver may want to get rid of:
1) Carmelo Anthony – 2 years @ $17,149,243 / $18,518,574 (early
termination option)
2) Chris Andersen – 4 years @ $3,942,000 / $4,234,000 / $4,526,000 /
$4,818,000
3) Renaldo Balkman – 3 years @ $1,675,000 / $1,675,000 / $1,675,000
So what trade makes the most sense in our eyes?
Dallas IN / Denver OUT:
· Carmelo Anthony – 2 years @ $17,149,243 / $18,518,574 (early
termination option)
· Renaldo Balkman – 3 years @ $1,675,000 / $1,675,000 / $1,675,000
Dallas OUT / Denver IN:
· $3 million cash
· Two 1st Round draft picks
· Roddy Beaubois – 4 years @ $1,156,080 / $1,236,720 / $2,227,333 /
$3,271,952
· Caron Butler – 1 year @ $10,811,960
· DeShawn Stevenson – 1 year @ $4,151,786
The resulting Denver core roster:
G – Billups, Lawson, Smith, Beaubois
F – Martin, Butler, Harrington
C – Hilario, Andersen
The resulting Dallas core roster:
G – Kidd, Terry, Jones
F – Nowitzki, Anthony, Marion
C – Haywood, Chandler
This deal would save the Nuggets about $3 million in salary immediately,
would get them $3 million in cash, two 1st round picks, and would not
increase their long-term salary. It would create a logjam at guard a little
bit (which makes one wonder if Denver would try to look elsewhere for young
talent in the front court), but if Roddy B were to play SG, then it would
make them legitimately two-deep at each guard position. This trade would also
get them an immediate replacement for ‘Melo in the form of Caron Butler.
Certainly this is a big downgrade, but it should allow them to continue to be
competitive as they explore rebuilding options moving forward.
This deal would get Dirk the long-needed companion star in Carmelo Anthony.
The Mavs’ depth would be thinned in the process (losing two rotation players
and gaining only one in return), but filling a roster with role players is
infinitely easier than finding the ever-elusive second star.
Conclusion
Who knows what will happen as the days, weeks, and months go by, but you
watch: the Mavs will at least be in the headline-making conversation if the
speculation about ‘Melo wanting out of Denver are true.
The Mavs have decent assets as potential trade partners with Denver, but
this is a franchise-changing deal for Denver, and the Nuggets have enough
right-now leverage to attempt to demand even greater assets from other
bidders.
There are a lot of moving parts here: Can Anthony leverage his way to New
York? … Would he sign an extension upon his arrival in a new city (which we
think would be a Mavs must)? … Can Denver made a trade that, like New
Orleans with Chris Paul, is designed to pacify its star?
At this moment, this is just us playing Amateur GM. Our gut reaction:
There is one major obstacle that will keep Carmelo-to-Dallas as nothing more
than a pipedream. Our next step: To investigate the thoughts of all this
inside Mavs HQ. ... and to pass those on to you. ...
原本不太想po
因為覺得這篇比較偏向幻想文
不過剛剛看到一則消息是說
尼克將要向金塊提出交易Melo
如果金塊有意兜售Melo
那小牛交易到的機會就提升一點點
不過這筆交易要成立是有幾個前題的
首先是金塊確定Melo已經無心續留金塊
且確定要走
如果Melo確定要走那金塊一定會在他合約走完前
想辦法換回一些籌碼
否則後過會跟LBJ離開騎士一樣
第二個前題是小牛提出的交易大於其他隊
畢竟存在於同一個區
球隊不會想要資敵
第三個前題是球隊提供的交易籌碼符合金塊的需求
我想這點也是最基本的
畢竟球星離隊
球隊必須重新找一個人來帶隊
甚至是徹底的重建
所以說以這個前題來說
想交易的球隊必須提供明星
或是有潛力成為明星的球員
目前聽說尼克將要提出的交易名單為
Danilo Gallinari, Eddy Curry and a future first-round draft pick
以這份交易名單來說
我認為小牛是可以提出更好的籌碼
當然更好的籌碼不代表就符合金塊隊的要求
但是如同前面所說
既然有球隊開始提交易
而Melo也許希望出走
那他今年被交易的可能性就大很多
還有一件事必須去注意
就是交易後
確定Melo想待這隊
或是交易至金塊的球員會續約
沒有人希望花高成本去換結果最後球星選擇離隊
既然有球隊已經開始提
小牛不妨也試看看
只是機會不太高就是了
--
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◆ From: 114.42.92.173
※ 編輯: popstarkirby 來自: 114.42.92.173 (08/18 10:15)
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