[討論] Trayvon Robinson
剛剛看了今天比賽的Highlight與板上的推文，不禁讓人有感而發，假使昨天的比賽
八局下派出今天的RP陣容，而不是讓Gray硬去偷局數，結局會不會有所不同呢？
雖然這樣推斷太結果論了，但是Ron Washington昨天所做的決定與之前基襪3連戰
最後一場Terry Francona的調度是類似的，這表現出了一個優秀Manager對於自己
球員狀況的瞭解與信任，還有就是他們的智慧。
RP的調度，基本上來說就是落後時控制失分，領先時保持差距，昨天Rangers的RP群
接力封鎖住我們的打線，相信大家記憶猶新。而球隊裏的CL也可以視作RP群中的王牌
，重要性不亞於SP群的ACE，通常都是在球隊小幅領先戰情吃緊具有SVO的條件下登版。
基襪的那場與昨天這場比賽，讓我們看到Washington與Francona的另類用法，這也是
許多棒球專欄作家多年所爭議的議題，CL到底是該放到最後領先再用，還是戰情最吃
緊的時候用，因為這就像是賭博，需要運氣的。
就以基襪的第三場來說，9上當洋基進攻時，洋基還以2:1領先紅襪，但Francona卻派
出Papelbon去凍結比分繼續拉大，通常落後時派CL上場是不合常理的，誰能保證自己
球隊下個半局一定能得分了？結果是讓他賭到了MO的BS與Josh Reddick的walked off。
同樣的情況也發生在昨天，當7下Kinsler敲了Lueke一發兩分彈Washington馬上把他們
現任的setup man:Adams給派上來凍結比分。可是當時條子還以5：6落後我們，之後的
發展大家都很清楚，今天要不是7局Wells那支帶有一點運氣成分的安打，按照ai所描述
Wedge的說法，說不定還是不會上League，再看Washington今天所排出來的RP：
上原→Adams→Feliz，這完全是要拿下比賽的陣容嘛，幸好Kinsler手下留情，不連續
兩天來給我們walked off，不然真的大有機率會被Sweep掉。講了那麼多落落長的離題
話，重點只是要推最後一句。
~ Wedge sucks ~
回到正題，Robinson今天的這支二壘安打是他本季（ML生涯）的第2支長打，上一支
是8/6對猴子第二場敲的HR，這篇是他在7/31交易前還在道奇的介紹文，原本只是腿
弟一個，後來長出了Power，變成一個有腿的小管砲，大家看看吧。
Prospect of the Day: Trayvon Robinson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers prospect Trayvon Robinson is having a terrific campaign
in Triple-A Is this is a Pacific Coast League/Albuquerque illusion?
Trayvon Robinson was drafted by the Dodgers in the 10th round in 2005, from
Crenshaw High School in Los Angeles. He was quite raw when drafted and didn't
get out of rookie ball until 2007, when he hit .253/.314/.311 in 110 games
for Great Lakes in the Midwest League. This was weak performance, although he
did steal 22 bases. Moved up to Inland Empire in the California League in
'08, he hit .276/.328/.385 with 22 steals, then returned to the same team in
'09 and improved substantially, hitting .306/.376/.500 with 43 steals and 15
homers.
Robinson spent 2010 with Double-A Chattanooga, hitting .300/.404/.438 with
nine homers, 73 walks, 38 steals, and 125 strikeouts in 434 at-bats. In 95
games for Triple-A Albuquerque this year, Robinson is hitting .303/.380/.584
with 26 homers, 43 walks, and 113 strikeouts in 353 at-bats. Overall in his
career, he's a .285/.359/.438 hitter.
A 5-10, 200 pound switch-hitter, Robinson was a speedster with little power
earlier in his career. His power output has steadily improved, although the
26 homers his year looks somewhat fluky to me, given that he's hit just nine
doubles. Albuquerque is a great place to hit, but his home/road splits are
almost even: .974 OPS at home, .952 on the road, so the home park isn't
completely responsible for this. The PCL itself is great for hitting in
general, of course, so the entire context itself has some inflation involved.
Applying an Major League Equivalent translation to his numbers gives us an
approximate .240/.310/.430 line slash line playing in Dodger Stadium and the
National League.
Robinson has good bat speed from both sides of the plate, but is aggressive
and strikes out frequently. He'll take walks and knows how to work a count,
but scouts say he sometimes sells out his hitting approach for power, which
has worked in Triple-A but might cause problems once major league pitchers
see him a few times. Although he's stolen just eight bases this year, he has
plus speed. His technique still needs some refinement, but he should get into
double-digit steals in the majors if given the green light often enough. His
arm is below average, but he has enough range to handle center field and is
even more effective when used in left field.
Robinson's power/speed combination is highly intriguing, but if the MLE
translation listed above is remotely accurate, we shouldn't expect him to
replicate the .300 batting average at the major league level, at least in the
short run. He is still just 23 years old, and given the great improvement in
his skills over the last four years, I think Robinson has a good chance to
make the necessary adjustments for major league success.
--
欲知前世因，今生受的是；欲知來世果，今生作的事。
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 210.240.176.185
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A大所言也有道理可循，只不過我並不這麼認為，因為就算逆轉是運氣好賭到了，
這也要看你拿什麼牌出來賭，因為在相同的情況下，Wedge就不會出他手中的王牌
League去凍結比分。我是認為從此點可以看出一個教練對於勝利的執著，以及對於
球員能力的瞭解與信任。而這種氣氛是會感染到球員身上的，讓他們相信自己球隊
是有能力去逆轉任何比賽的。所以Francona為何在9上時不派同樣休息差不多天數的
Randy Williams及Andrew Miller，就是因為他相信球員有逆轉的可能，他覺得應該
要賭這一局，打出他的王牌去搏MO最後BS的可能性。當成功後，他也不會要CL硬多撐
一局，趕緊換上前一天有出賽的Daniel Bard再去凍結比分，賭到了最後的勝利。
這種情形，我好像從來沒看到Wedge在水手用過，不知道是不是他太缺乏信心的緣故
，反正不到領先不上League這鐵則似乎沒破過。
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※ 編輯: fox391823 來自: 210.240.176.185 (08/15 10:17)