[討論] Carlos Peguero

看板Mariners作者GUILLEN時間13年前 (2011/06/18 20:25)推噓28(28推 0噓 21→)

留言49則, 17人參與討論串1/1

http://0rz.tw/QjdhW Suffice to say that, when the Mariners brought up Carlos Peguero and stuck him in an outfield platoon, most of us were fairly skeptical. We were excited to watch Peguero, because Peguero was a new young player and new young players are always exciting, but our hopes weren't very high, because as strong as Peguero is, he didn't exactly come with much of a minor league track record. In high-A, he struck out more than four times as often as he walked. In AA, he struck out more than three times as often as he walked. In AAA, he struck out nearly four times as often as he walked. Peguero was strong, but he was undisciplined and unpolished, and he looked like the kind of guy who'd come up, post an OBP around .220, and head back down, a discouraged shell of a man. 我只想說，當水手隊拉上屁股肉進入外野位置，大部分的球迷都對他有些懷疑，青春肉體總是令人興奮，但我們對他的期待可沒有太高，雖然他很強壯，但他小聯盟的紀錄倒是不讓人驚艷。在高階 A，他的被三振數超過保送數的四倍，在AA，他的被三振數超過保送數的三倍，在 AAA，他的被三振數則是接近保送數的四倍。他很強壯，但是沒有選球也尚待琢磨，感覺他會上來一下，交出.220左右的上壘率，然後就會回去 Tacoma。 And for some time, Peguero fulfilled our expectations. He hit a couple home runs, including a big one out of nowhere against Fausto Carmona that broke up a no-hitter, but at the end of May, his OBP was .210, and he had 22 strikeouts in 62 Major League trips to the plate. Peguero looked lost, and he looked like he was on the verge of returning to Tacoma, perhaps in exchange for Mike Carp. 有的時候，屁股肉達到了我們對他的期待，幹了幾炮、壞了 Carmona無安打的好事，但到了五月底，他的上壘率是.210，62個打席裡被Ｋ掉22次，他看起來有點迷惘，一副要回 Tacoma 跟 Mike Carp 交換工作的樣子。 Then things turned around a little bit. Peguero went deep twice against the Rays on June 2nd. Soon thereafter he posted a three-game hit streak, which is notable for a guy like him. And he started looking better to the eye. Over the past few weeks, Peguero has not only been a more successful hitter - he's looked like a more selective hitter. 但接著峰迴路轉，6/2 屁股肉對上光芒隊雙響，接著連三場安打，這對他來說可是值得大書特書的事情，然後他的眼睛好像變利了，過去幾周，屁股肉不僅是個更為進步的打者，也是個更為有耐心的打者。 And it shows up in the numbers. Let's ignore Peguero's brief time with the team in April, and focus on his time as a semi-regular in May and June. Data comes courtesy of Fangraphs, with OSwing% referring to Peguero's rate of swings at pitches out of the zone, ZSwing% referring to Peguero's rate of swings at pitches in the zone, and Contact% referring to Peguero's rate of hitting the ball when he swings. 這東西在數據上顯示了出來，先略過短暫的四月不談，把焦點放在他較為固定出賽的五六月。 Month O-Swing% Z-Swing% Contact% May 55% 79% 68% June 41% 75% 73% The first thing to know is that we're limited by the quality of the data, and the data isn't perfect. These numbers aren't necessarily 100% accurate. But they're close, and the sample sizes aren't tiny. 這數據有其限制亦非完美，但它們已經接近準確，樣本數也不是太小。 And what we see is that Peguero has improved. The recent version of Peguero is still aggressive. He still has some of the higher swing rates in baseball. But in May, his O-Swing% was the highest. His overall Swing% was the highest. His Contact% was third-lowest. His June numbers don't stand out so much. His O-Swing% is high, but reasonable. His Contact% is low, but reasonable. 屁股肉進步了，最近的他出棒依舊積極，五月他的壞球出棒率（O-Swing%）跟出棒率（Swing%）都是聯盟最高、擊中率（Contact%）則是倒數第三，六月他的數字就沒那麼扯了，O-Swing%很高但不嚇人，Contact%還是很低但不會被人笑。 Carlos Peguero looks like he's learning, which goes along with the coaching staff's statements that he's proven to be coachable. Over the past few weeks, he has not been the mess that he was. 屁股肉看來正在學習，從教練團言論中屁股肉似乎頗為受教，過去幾週，他不像先前那樣一團糟。 How much does it all mean? We'll have to see if this sticks, first of all. Improvements must not only be made, but sustained. Additionally, Peguero's still in a platoon, so it's not like he's suddenly emerging as a top young player. But we're looking at an aggressive, powerful 24-year-old who struck out 33% of the time in May, and 23% of the time so far in June. That's exciting, because Peguero's gotten better, and the improvement suggests he could get better still. 這代表什麼呢？我們得看看這現象能否維持。屁股肉不是只有進步就好，還要持續進步，另外他仍受到 platoon 的保護，還不是個突然冒出頭的頂級年輕好手。但我們可以看見這個24歲的重砲手五月被三振率是33%，六月則是降到了23%，這很令人興奮，屁股肉的進步顯示他可以越來越屌。 I'm not wild about Carlos Peguero, and I'm not convinced he has a great future in the Major Leagues, but I like him now more than I used to. There's a good player in there, and there are signs that the Mariners may be tracking him down. 我不是屁股肉的粉絲，也不覺得他為未來會嚇嚇叫，但我現在喜歡他更甚以往。水兵可以好好盯著這個好手的發展了。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.204.102.178

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