2010 Five Questions: Seattle Mariners

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※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板] 作者: ohb (好勝的命運是失落) 站內: MLB 標題: 2010 Five Questions: Seattle Mariners 時間: Sat Apr 3 09:07:38 2010 Five questions: Seattle Mariners by Matthew Carruth March 22, 2010 Who is going to do the catching? 誰是補手? Kenji Johjima had been the incumbent starter heading into the 2009 season, but a prolonged absence for the World Baseball Classic opened the door for Rob Johnson to gain a lot of valuable time working with the Mariners pitching staff. The increased trust he developed contributed to Johnson eventually winning the starting role from Johjima. Johjima departed this past offseason, so the job would appear to have been handed to Johnson, but it may not work out that way. 2009年時喬治馬是原定的先發補手，但因WBC造成的缺席使Rob Johnson得到了寶貴的時間。投手群對他的信任最終使得Rob Johnson拿到了先發補手的位置。今年喬治馬的離開使得先發補手看起來是Johnson的囊中物，但也可能不是那麼一回事。 Johnson is coming back from a multitude of injuries suffered during the 2009 season and may begin the 2010 season on the disabled list. Meanwhile, Adam Moore has stepped up and might usurp the starting role from Johnson much as Johnson did from Johjima. The Mariners organization loves Moore, but also loves defense (at least publicly) from the position, something that has held Moore back a bit. This spring has seen Moore look a lot more comfortable behind the plate however and with Johnson's ailments, he has been getting in quality time with the staff, becoming more comfortable. Johnson正從去年得到的一大堆傷病中恢復，並可能開季時仍在傷兵名單中。同時，Adam Moore正在虎視眈眈著先發補手的職位，正如同Rob去年對喬治馬所做的一樣。水手高層滿喜歡Moore的，但因為對防守的追求(至少公開宣稱過)，Moore佔了一點劣勢。不過今年春訓時Moore看起來蹲的還不錯。 The organization seems to favor Moore over Johnson long term anyway, thanks to Moore's higher ceiling with the stick. No matter how much they like Moore's improvements thus far, the Mariners are certainly going to be wary about anointing him the starting catcher with Johnson as the backup. That is a lot of inexperience at a position deemed crucial for its leadership. A more veteran catcher on the active roster seems likely. 長期來看，由於Moore的長打潛力較佳，水兵高層比起Johnson來更喜歡Moore。然而，不管他們多愛Moore目前的進步，水兵仍需要慎重考慮Moore和Johnson誰先發較佳。補手是一個需要經驗來證明領導能力的位置。一個老將補手感覺會比年輕補手好一些。 The Mariners brought in Josh Bard this winter in the hopes that he would fill that exact role but according to scouts, he has looked terrible and rumors are that he is not long for the team. With little else in the way of veteran presence at backstop—Guillermo Quiroz isn't impressing anyone, either—a minor trade seems likely to fill that backup position at least at the beginning of the season. After that, who knows? It is likely that no true starting catcher emerges at all this season and instead the Mariners spend the year figuring out what they have in Moore and Johnson. 水兵今年冬天也補進了Josh Bard並希望他能有所發揮，但根據球探報告，Bard打的糟透了並謠傳在隊裡的時日不多了。由於老將的缺乏 - Guillermo Quiroz看起來也不怎麼樣 - ，一個小小的交易也許能夠補上開季時候補補手的空缺。不過，誰知道呢？說不定水兵會花一整季來研究Moore跟Johnson哪個比較好。 Will the hitters score runs? 打者能得分嗎？ It's a simple enough question and easy to understand why it gets asked so often. The Mariners were a dismal hitting team in 2009 and lost Adrian Beltre and Russell Branyan. At best, some would say, the additions of Milton Bradley and Chone Figgins might cancel out those departures, but that would still leave the Mariners as one of the worst offenses in the game, maybe even the worst. It's an understandable concern, but it's wrong. 這是一個超簡單、超好理解為何常被提起的問題。去年水兵就已經夠貧打了，還失去了吹哥跟布拉娘。也許有些人會說，在最好的情況下，Milton Bradley和腿姬能夠彌補前兩位離隊的效應。然而水兵依舊是最貧打的球隊之一，說不定比去年更糟。我們可以理解你們的擔憂，但它並不正確。 There's also the urge to project the coming year by comparing the roster turnover to the 2009 stats. That's a poor way of projecting and the main reason is that it treats last season's numbers as sacrosanct. They aren't and they ultimately serve no good purpose on a team level. In 2009, the Mariners batted .258 as a team but just .235 with runners in scoring position. The average team sees a rise in batting average under those scenarios and the difference there explains a lot of why the Mariners only managed to plate 640 runs. 是有一派人們主張利用2009年的統計成績，加上陣容的改變，來預測即將來臨的球季。然而這是個不準確的作法。主要的原因是這方法過於高估去年球季數字的準確度，但從球隊的層級來看這個預測方法並不好。2009年水兵團隊打擊率是.258，但得點圈打擊率只有.235。一般來說，得點圈打擊率都比通算打擊率高。水兵和其他球隊的不同解釋了為什麼他們去年只拿了640分。 BaseRuns says the Mariners should have scored about 675 times in 2009, wOBA says around 700. Either way, the picture that luck-neutral metrics paint is vastly different from the one most people have hanging in their mental gallery. Furthermore, the Mariners got almost nothing offensively out of catcher, shortstop, third base or left field. Projection-wise, Figgins might be roughly equal to Adrian Beltre, but Beltre was awful in 2009 and Figgins in a better fit for Safeco Field anyway. BaseRuns認為水兵去年應該要拿675分。wOBA計算結果認為水兵應該要拿700分左右。兩種預測指標都和水兵實際的表現有相當大的落差。此外，水兵的補手、游擊手、三壘手和左外野手基本上都是自殺棒次。從預測值來看，腿姬和吹哥在打擊上的表現相差不大，但吹哥去年打的糟透了，而腿姬在屬性上也比較適合Safeco Field. What matters is building up a projection of runs scored based on the team as it is now, not what it was before. Going via that route gives an expected amount of runs scored by the Mariners in the low 700s. That's not earth-shattering by any means, but it is a far sight better than the previous year and far enough removed from the dregs of the AL to allow them to be competitive. 得分能力的預測應該基於球隊的現在，而非球隊的過去。從這點來看，水兵今年應該可以拿個七百多分。這並非天大的進步，但比去年好的太多。這應該足夠使水兵從落後群提升到具有競爭力。 Will the hitters prevent runs? 野手們能守住分數嗎？ Last season the Mariners' fielders combined to save 86 runs according to UZR and about 61 runs by Plus/Minus. No matter how you sliced it, unless you used a stupid way like fielding percentage, the Mariners were among the league's best in defense in 2009. That went a long way toward preventing runs from scoring and keeping them in ballgames that their offense had no right to be in. Will that continue into 2010? UZR計算去年水兵野手們守住了86分，而Plus/Minus則算出水兵野手們守住了61分。不論你從什麼角度分析 (除非你用了像守備率之類的笨方法)，水兵都是去年最佳防守球隊之一。他們不讓對手得分及不讓對手把球轟出場外。今年仍就能持續這樣的表現嗎？ Projecting defense is difficult since it is so unstable and hard to measure, but going position by position reveals a lot of hope for the Mariner pitchers this coming season. Russell Branyan was the primary first baseman last season and though he did a lot of work to become an adequate fielder, Casey Kotchman assumes the role this year and is renowned for his defensive prowess. Suffice to say that will likely be an upgrade. 因為它的不穩定性及難以測量，防守預測一向是很困難的。但若我們一個位置一個位置來看，水兵的投手群們將會對守備信心滿滿。布拉娘是去年主要的一壘手，但他離"勝任" 還有一段距離。Casey Kotchman今年應該會拿到先發一壘手的位置，而他素以好防守者聞名。我們可以相信一壘手在防守上是有升級的。 Jose Lopez is a perfectly adequate second baseman but it appears that he is losing that position to Figgins, a well above average fielder at third base with some prior experience at second base and the natural gifts to be a better fit at the keystone. Likewise, Lopez is a better fit at third base. Positional adjustments rate the two positions as equally demanding, so balancing the possible benefits (tailoring the player more to the particular rigors of each position) and pitfalls (learning a new, or nearly new, position) of the switch leads me to call it a wash. Jose Lopez在二壘守的很好，但看起來他的二壘位置會被腿姬搶走。腿姬以三壘手來比較是超出平均的，而他先前也守過二壘，並且他的天賦看起來更適合守二壘。同時 Jose Lopez以天賦來看，他比較適合守三壘。防守要求在這兩個位置來看是差不多的，而對我來說調整守位的好處 (把正確的人放在正確的位置上) 和壞處 (他們要重新學習新的守位) 差不多是可以互相抵消的。 Jack Wilson gets the nod at shortstop for the full season, or at least as long as he's healthy, as opposed to taking over midstream from the awful Yuniesky Betancourt as he did last year. In the outfield, Bradley, Eric Byrnes and Ryan Langerhans will rotate through left field and all three are average to slightly above at the position. Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro Suzuki return in their starring roles. 要是Jack Wilson能保持健康 (甚至只是在他健康出賽的時候) ，游擊防守就會比去年糟透了的Yuniesky Betancourt好的多。至於外野手們，Bradley、Eric Byrnes跟Ryan Langerhans會在左外野輪流出賽，而這三個人的防守都比平均稍稍好一點。Franklin Gutierrez和一朗也會持續先發。 Without having a good grasp on rating catcher's defense, the seven other positional spots on the field all look at have at worst a league average fielder in place and in many cases such as Gutierrez, Ichiro, Wilson and possibly Figgins, there is a certifiably good glove. You also expect league leaders to regress the next season, but the Mariners have built themselves a potentially powerful defensive force. Don't be caught off guard if they not only repeat at the top, but even exceed last season's rank. 儘管我們沒辦法衡量補手防守的能力，其他七個位置的防守至少都是聯盟平均，更別提Gutierrez、一朗、Wilson (腿姬也許也能算) 是金手套等級的。你當然能預測這些人守備明年會退步，但至少水兵已經擁有看起來非常強悍的防守能力。如果他們不只維持住守備，甚至更上層樓，請別感到太過驚訝。 Will the top of the rotation stay healthy? 輪職前段能夠保持健康嗎？ Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee are the dominant storyline for the Mariners in 2010—one a former Cy Young winner, the other seemingly destined to be a future winner. A whole lot of the Mariners fate rides on those two arms. The last time such an arrangement was in place, 2008, it went disastrously as Erik Bedard never proved to be the answer because of injuries and the rest of the team was never in the sort of shape that then-GM Bill Bavasi thought. Is there better luck on the horizon this time around? King和Cliff Lee2010年水兵最重要的話題 - 一個前CY得主，和一個看起來注定要得CY 的投手。水兵今年的命運有很大一部份是握在他們的手中。上一次類似的情形發生在08 年，但Erik Bedard因傷所困導致了水兵並不像前GM Bill Bavasi所想的一樣好。這次會比較好一點嗎？ Though neither Hernandez nor Lee has gone through any extensive injuries in the past, the concerns are there this season because of their respective workloads from the past couple seasons. Hernandez threw more than 190 innings each of the past four seasons, but jumped nearly 40 innings in 2009 to 238.2. He faced 120 more batters than he ever had previously and tossed about 450 more pitches than ever before. 儘管King和Lee在過去從未有過嚴重的傷病，過去幾年的負擔仍使人們擔心今年他們有可能會受傷。King在06年到08都丟了至少190局，而去年丟了238.2局 - 多了快40局。他去年多面對了120名打者並多丟了450球。 Lee posted his second straight season at more than 220 innings and has already suffered a minor strain in his abdomen, the same type of injury that he's faced twice before. Waiting behind them are Ryan Rowland-Smith who suffered an arm injury last season that kept him out a decent amount of time and the always fragile Bedard, who is returning from a torn labrum. There is clearly no certain bet at the top of the Mariners rotation this year. but then again, when is there ever with pitchers? Lee則是連續第二年丟了220局以上，而且像他過去曾遭遇兩次的情形一樣，腹部有些輕微的拉傷。之後的是RRS - 去年手臂受傷讓他沒丟多少局 - 和從torn labrum回來的總是很脆弱的Bedard。水兵今年的前段輪值看起來並不是那麼的堅不可摧。但同樣的，又有誰能夠保證投手一定不會受傷？ When will Dustin Ackley show up in Seattle? Dustin Ackley今年有機會上來嗎？ Drafted with the second overall pick last June, Dustin Ackley was considered one of the most accomplished and polished college hitters of recent memory. There have been few questions that his bat wlll play in the major leagues, and soon. What has been tough to figure out, however, has been where on the field that bat will be playing. 去年選秀第二順位Dustin Ackley是近年來被認為最接近完成品的大學打者之一。不怎麼意外的話，他有機會很快就在大聯盟亮相。但比較難確定的是，他會守哪個位置？ As is true of most great baseball athletes, Ackley spent time at shortstop and pitcher in high school, but moved to the outfield upon reaching college. Regarded as a guy with the tools to eventually handle center field, Ackley seemed destined to retain a high value spot on the defensive spectrum. An arm injury put a damper on that destiny, as Tommy John surgery necessitated a move to first base to avoid putting too much stress on the arm. 就像許多好的棒球選手一樣，Ackley高中的時候是守游擊手和當投手。但他升大學後，被移到外野守備去。以一個有能力守中外野的選手來看，Ackley似乎能守一些較難守的位置。但手臂受傷毀了這一切。TJ手術迫使他去守一壘，避免給他的手臂太多的壓力。 All that time at first base left scouts with an unsatisfactory amount of games in which to scout Ackley's defense. He appeared to be too talented to waste at first base and most people assumed that he would move back to the outfield as a pro. The Mariners had a different idea, and began giving him reps at second base last fall. With Suzuki and Gutierrez plugging up two-thirds of the outfield for the foreseeable future and prospect Michael Saunders the de facto next in line at left field, second base presented perhaps the quickest path to the majors for Ackley. The only question would be how well he could make the transition and what kind of delay that it would cause. 長時間的一壘生涯使得球探們無法充足了解Ackley守備的好壞。他的天賦使他守一壘有點浪費，所以大多數的人認為他進職棒後會回到外野去。水兵球團則有個不一樣的點子 - 把他移到二壘去。有一朗和Gutierrez擋在前面，而且Michael Saunders看起來會是未來幾年的左外野手，守二壘也許會是Ackley最快升上大聯盟的方法。唯一的問題是他能適應的多好，及他要花多久時間適應。 Any fears about retarding his development due to the position switch appear to have been assuaged quickly, though. Snippets coming out of Mariners spring training have been nothing but raves for Ackley's performance thus far. My own short scouting trip down to Arizona involved watching Ackley make a decently difficult over the shoulder catch at second and he showed no flaws in limited action. 然而，像"換守位會不會遲緩他的發展"這樣的問題很快就隨風消逝了。目前為止所有從水兵春訓營出來的人都對Ackley的表現讚不絕口。我自己 (作者自己) 也有去春訓營看看Ackley，而他表現的完美無暇。 *這裡有點疑問的是Ackley是不是雖被身體狀況限制但依舊守的很好...* Ackley will start the season at Double-A almost certainly, but if he continues to draw these kinds of reviews on the defensive end, and his bat progresses as expected for a hitter with his track record, Ackley, who wasn't expected to be on the scene until 2011 at the earliest, might be forcing the Mariners hand as early as this summer. In fact, his promotion might hinge equally on how quickly the Mariners can find a taker for Lopez as on Ackley's performance in isolation. 目前看起來Ackley會從2A開季。但他如果防守上維持這樣的表現，而他的棒子也能夠滿足大家對他的期望，原本被認為最早要2011才會上大聯盟的Ackley說不定今年夏天就上大聯盟了。事實上，Ackley升等的速度也要看水兵能不能找到球隊願意收下Jose Lopez。 Matthew Carruth is an editor for The Hardball Times. He welcomes any and all sorts of communication at his email. -- 勇氣，並不是不會害怕，而是即使怕的要命，非常不安，卻仍堅持信念的往前邁進。因為認為是對的事。～ Phantasia -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 70.63.155.138 ※ 編輯: ohb 來自: 70.63.155.138 (04/03 09:16)

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