[閒聊] Dave on Washburn to Tigers
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/washburn-to-detroit
Washburn To Detroit
Over the last 24 hours, as rumors circulated that the Mariners were leaning
towards hanging onto Jarrod Washburn, the collective Seattle fanbase prepare
d for another trade deadline disaster. We were used to those, after all.
However, we can unplug our noses and breathe again, because Jarrod Washburn
has been traded to the Detroit Tigers for Luke French and Mauricio Robles.
As a Mariner fan, this trade makes me want to jump up and down and hug someo
ne. The M’s turned a 35-year-old lefty strike throwing flyballer who is due
$3.5 million over the rest of the season and then becomes an expensive free
agent into a 24-year-old lefty strike thrwoing flyballer who is due $0 over
the rest of the year and won’t be a free agent until after 2015. And they
got a 20-year-old lefty with huge strikeout numbers in A-ball to boot.
French isn’t going to be an ace, but let’s be honest, neither is Washburn.
His value is entirely tied to an ERA that is, quite simply, a fluke. His 2.
64 ERA is more than a run lower than his 3.75 FIP… and his FIP is deflated
by an unsustainable 6.4% HR/FB rate. In reality, Washburn has pitched like a
guy who deserves an ERA more like 4.4, but thanks to the wonders of good de
fense, a ballpark perfectly suited to his skills, and some good luck, he has
the appearance of something more than a back-end starter.
A back-end starter, though, is exactly what he is. The addition of a sinker
and confidence in his big slow breaking ball have allowed him to marginally
improve this year, but the step up is in small percentages, not large gains.
Tigers fans wondering what to expect from Washburn should be thinking a mid
-4s ERA, as long as you put some good defenders behind him on days he pitche
s.
Worse for Detroit, Washburn is a Type B free agent, but offering him arbitra
tion would be borderline insane. Coming off a career year, with a previous $
10 million salary, he’d easily get $14 or $15 million if taken to arbitrati
on, and he’s probably not even worth half that as a free agent. So, while t
he Tigers give up a couple of interesting young arms for a rental, they won’
t even get draft pick compensation when he leaves this winter.
Mariner fans are rejoicing for good reason. They just moved an overvalued as
set for a couple of interesting, cheap young pitchers. This is a great trade
for Seattle. Detroit? I think you’re about to be disappointed by what you
acquired.
Dave: 科科. 洗炸彈都能賣掉. 明年要拿15M的4號投手能換回東西來就該高興了.
老虎等著哭泣吧XDDD
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