[討論] Putz Trade Analysis
看板Mariners作者RobertLucas (Rational Expectation)時間15年前 (2008/12/11 17:14)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)留言0則, 0人參與討論串1/1
U.S.S Mariners 有對這個交易作了分析，全文有點長，所以我只摘錄重點：
(註：這篇文章並沒有對從Mets 拿來的另三位 Maikel Cleto, Ezequiel Carrera,
和 Jason Vargas 評論)
1. 以 WARP 來看Putz, Green, Reed 和 Valbuena 共 +4.5 win ，而得來的
Gutierrez, Heilman, Chavez, 和 Carp 共 +4.0 win
就此來看，Mariner是稍稍虧了一些
2. 但本次交易過來的主角 Gutierrez 還很年輕，比起拿出去的Putz來說
Gutierrez更有價值
(在另一篇報導中，GM Jack 也指明 Gutierrez 會是未來的CF)
3. 交易出去的Valbuena 雖然很有潛力，但他在水手隊上空間有限，(還有 Lopez在前頭)
4. Gutierrez and Chavez (再加 Ichiro) 水手可以說是有了外野防守的黃金陣容
他們應該可以幫 Silva 和 Washburn 這類投手的成績灌不少水
不過比較令人憂心的是，現在Putz 和 Green都走了，Morrow很可能會繼續待牛棚
而Chavez的合約也只剩一年
但總的說來，USS Mariners 還是認為這對水手來說，是個好交易
Putz trade analysis
from http://ussmariner.com/2008/12/10/putz-trade-analysis/
Rosenthal says it’s a done deal. From the M’s perspective, this is what’s
being reported:
M’s trade RHP J.J. Putz, RHP Sean Green, OF Jeremy Reed, and 2B Luis
Valbuena for OF Franklin Gutierrez, RHP Aaron Heilman, OF Endy Chavez, 1B
Mike Carp, and “minor leaguers” from Cleveland.
Z’s first significant trade is certainly a big one - probably the most
interesting trade the M’s have pulled off in five years. Let’s break down
the pieces by win value.
Putz (+2 wins), Green (+1 win), Reed (+0.5 wins), and Valbuena (+1 win)
represent a net loss of about 4.5 wins over replacement level players.
Combined, they’ll make about $7 million in 2009, so it’s definitely a
valuable group of players - productive and cheap. Putz and Valbuena are the
real pieces of value, though - Reed and Green are role players. Valbuena
could be a league average second baseman pretty quickly, and the Indians did
well to spot him as a guy who could help them long term. I hate giving up
Valbuena, as I was hopeful the M’s would sell high on Lopez and keep Luis as
his replacement.
However, the M’s aren’t getting a bunch of crap in return.
Gutierrez is a +2 win OF (yes, even with a questionable bat, he’s a league
average player) who instantly solves the center field problem. Heilman is a
+1 win reliever with an undefined role. He wants to start but isn’t good
enough to, so if they can convince him to close, that’s in everyone’s best
interests. Chavez is a +1 win OF who will probably share time with Wlad (like
Gutierrez, his defense is other worldly), and Carp is a +0 win prospect with
moderate upside - think Lyle Overbay if he develops well.
The M’s ship off about +4.5 wins and get back +4 wins, so you could call it
a big push overall, but that’s where the nuances come in. Here are the
reasons I like this deal:
1. The +2 win player the M’s are getting back is much younger than the +2
win player they’re giving up, and they have him under team control for a lot
longer. For where this team is, Gutierrez is more valuable than Putz.
2. One of Valbuena or Lopez had to go, because there was no way for them to
coexist at full value. In that sense, the M’s swapped a prospect at a
position of depth for a prospect at a position where they have a gaping hole.
I like Valbuena better than Carp, but Carp has a much clearer road to a job
in Seattle.
3. By acquiring Gutierrez and Chavez, the M’s just have given themselves the
ability to run out of the best outfield defenses in baseball on days where
they send a contact pitcher to the hill. A Chavez/Gutierrez/Ichiro outfield
will make Silva and Washburn look significantly better than they really are,
and by investing in the defense, the M’s have made it possible that they
could salvage some value from a pair of bad contracts.
To me, those three things swing this trade into the plus column for the M’s.
That doesn’t make it a total home run - Heilman’s desire to start and the
loss of Putz and Green make it much more likely that Morrow’s going to
remain in the bullpen, Chavez is only under team control for one year, and
Gutierrez’s right-handed bat isn’t a great fit for Safeco.
But in this case, I’d say the positive outweigh the negatives. It’s not an
outright fleecing like Putz for Joyce would have been (and if that was on the
table, I’d have done that before I did this, but it’s quite possible that
was never offered), but I’d say that the Mariners are better right now than
they were yesterday and they have a brighter future, and that makes this a
good trade.
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