[外電] 為什麼幾乎所有MLB球賽第一球都是快速球?

看板MLB作者 (超☆冒險蓋)時間5年前 (2018/09/10 13:49), 5年前編輯推噓52(52推 0噓 13→)
留言65則, 53人參與, 5年前最新討論串1/1
來源: ESPN 網址: https://tinyurl.com/yd64u4a8 Why almost every MLB game begins with a fastball 為什麼幾乎所有MLB球賽開局第一球都是快速球? On Sunday, MVP candidate Matt Carpenter dug into the box against Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer at 1:06 p.m. ET. Scherzer threw the first pitch of the game, a curveball at 77 mph. 星期天美國東岸下午一點六分，MVP候選人Matt Carpenter走進打擊去要面對賽揚獎候選人 Max Scherzer。Scherzer投出那場比賽的第一球，是一顆時速77英哩的曲球。 So, to answer a question: 所以，要回答這個問題： "this is random but it seems like something you may have noticed or thought about. Has there been a single baseball game this year or in the last few that the pitcher has started with something other than a fastball?" 「看起來像是隨機的，但是若是去看一下比賽或是思考一下，好像真的有這麼一個狀況。 今年或是過去幾年的比賽，有沒有投手用了除了快速球以外的其他球種來開局呢？」 Yes. 有的。 But it's an interesting question that turns out to have -- thanks in part to Scherzer and that hook he threw to Carpenter -- an interesting answer. 不過這是個很有趣的問題--也要謝謝Scherzer丟了那個曲球給Carpenter--需要一個有趣的 答案來回覆。 It is true that almost all baseball games begin the same way. At 12:05 p.m. ET on Aug. 1, for instance, Tommy Milone threw the first major league pitch of August, and if I told you to imagine a first pitch of a game, you'd get this one exactly right: a fastball, firm and four seams, right down the middle, taken for a strike. The next first pitch -- in the Bronx, one hour later -- was only a little different, a Sonny Gray two-seamer, low for a ball. Then in Detroit, a Mike Fiers four-seamer on the inner half for a called strike. Speed through the next five days, and the first 64 games of August all began with first-pitch fastballs, before Mike Leake opened his Aug. 5 start with a changeup. 沒錯，幾乎所有棒球比賽開局的方式都一樣。舉例來說，8月1日那天，東岸時間下午 12:05，Tommy Milone投出大聯盟8月份的第一球，猜猜看那一球會是什麼球種？沒錯，猜 對了，一顆穩穩當當的四縫線快速球，直接瞄準好球區正中央，拿下一個好球。一個小時 過後在Bronx，有一點點的差別，Sonny Gray丟的是一個偏低的二縫線，是顆壞球。下一個 是在底特律，Mike Fiers丟出了一顆偏內側四縫線快速球拿下好球數。接下來的五天，八 月開始的前64場比賽，都是以快速球開局，直到八月5日那天Mike Leake用變速球開局。 There have been just over 2,000 games played this season, and only 59 of them -- through Friday -- began with anything other than a fastball in the top of the first. First-pitch non-fastballs to start the bottom half of the first inning turn out to be just as rare, so we'll henceforth lump both pitches together so we can get a more robust sample: More than 4,000 first pitches this season, of which only 106 were anything but fastballs. Approximately 2.5 percent. That's so few! There are more non-fastballs thrown on 3-0 -- approximately 4 percent -- than there are to start starts, which makes the first pitch of the game arguably the single most predictable moment that exists in baseball. 本季目前為止打了超過2000場比賽，直到上星期五，只有59場比賽在一局上半不是用快速 球開局。一局下半的第一球用非快速球開局的也是一樣很少。所以，把兩個數據加在一起 看，超過本季超過4000個開局第一球，只有106個不是用快速球，大概是2.5趴，那真的很 少。在球數三壞沒好球的狀況，下一球用非快速球的比例都有4趴--比開局第一球高的多， 這讓開局第一球變成棒球比賽裡面變成最好預測的一個現象。 Clayton Kershaw has, since at least 2010, never started a game with anything but a fastball. Justin Verlander hasn't either. Bartolo Colon, Jon Lester, Madison Bumgarner: not one. Jake Arrieta hasn't since 2012, when he was still an Oriole and still terrible. Trevor Bauer never had until this July, when he dropped in a first-pitch curveball against the Reds. 拿Clayton Kershaw來說，至少從2010年起，他就沒有用過非快速球來開局。Justin Verlander，Bartolo Colon，Jon Lester，Madison Bumgarner，通通都沒有用過別種球來 開局。Jake Arrieta，當他還是金鶯投手，還是投的很爛的時候，從2012年後就沒有用過 別的球種開局。Trevor Bauer是直到今年七月對紅人的時候才丟了一顆曲球來開局。 Pitching is so much about keeping hitters off balance, guessing, uncertain about what comes next. That's why catchers put down signs instead of just shouting out instructions. So why, for this one moment, does such predictability exist? 投球最主要的就是要讓打者失去平衡，讓打者猜不到，不知道投手要投什麼球。那也就是 捕手是在胯下做暗號給投手看，而不是直接吼給投手聽。所以，看到目前為止，為什麼這 樣明顯的趨勢會存在呢？ Some pitchers do have more first-pitch variety than others. Since his debut, Masahiro Tanaka has begun 42 of his 128 starts with non-fastballs, mostly sliders, but occasionally curves or splitters. Leake has started 33 of his 260 starts with sliders or changeups. Tanaka and Leake have nine and eight such starts, respectively, this year, the most in baseball. 當然有一些投手開局的第一球變化度比其他投手多，田中將大從開始他的大聯盟生涯，128 次先發，有42次不是用快速球開局，這42球大部分是滑球，有一些是曲球或是指叉球。 Leake在他260次先發裡，有33次用滑球或是變速球開局。今年到目前為止，田中有九次， Leake有8次，是用非快速球開局，是聯盟前兩位。 Scherzer is tied with Leake, which brings us back to Monday against Carpenter. Until last summer, Scherzer almost never threw anything but fastballs to start games. From 2010 through mid-June 2017, he started almost 250 games and threw fastballs at the commencement of all but one of them. But on June 27, he started Anthony Rizzo off with a slider (called strike), and a month later, he threw David Peralta a slider (called a ball). This year, he has begun eight games with changeups (2), curves (3) or sliders (3). Scherzer目前跟Leake並列，這讓我們回到之前星期一他對決Carpenter的時候。直到去年 夏天，Scherzer幾乎沒有用過非快速球開局過。從2010到2017年六月中，他先發了250場比 賽，只有一場沒有用快速球開局。直到那年六月27號，他對Anthony Rizzo投了一顆滑球 (判好球)，一個月之後他對David Peralta也投了一顆滑球(判好球)。今年，他有八場比賽 用了變速球(2)，曲球(3)跟滑球(3)。 Scherzer is known to be a smart pitcher, and one who pays a lot of attention to the progression of at-bats, and this new tack could be seen as a tiny, microcosmic example of his wiliness -- particularly because of what else is going on in the game. Scherzer是眾所周知的聰明型投手，他對打者的進步非常注意，開局球的新策略或許就是 他聰明投球的一個小例子--尤其是因為棒球比賽中一些其他狀態的改變。 Beginning in 2015, the league's leadoff hitters became much more aggressive swinging at the first pitch of the game. From 2009 through 2014, they swung at the first pitch of the game just 12 percent of the time. In 2015, it spiked to 20 percent, and it has been 19 percent in the years since. This coincided with a league-wide shift toward putting more powerful hitters into the leadoff spot: Leadoff men this year have an OPS+ of 107, which is to say an OPS 7 percent higher than the rest of the lineup's hitters. That's the leadoff spot's highest OPS+ since 1914. So: Leadoff hitters swing at the first pitch of the game more aggressively than they used to, and they are scarier hitters than they used to be. 從2015年起，聯盟開局的打者對於揮擊第一球變得越來越積極。從2009到2014，揮擊第一 球的比例是12趴。到了2015年，上升到20趴，從那時候到現在累計是19趴。這也跟聯盟裡 球隊開始把更具攻擊力的打者放到首打席：今年的首打席OPS+是107，比其他的打席的平均 OPS要高7趴。這是從1914年以來最高的一年，所以，首打席對於揮擊第一球越來越積極， 他們變得比以前都還要令人畏懼。 That's almost certainly what explains Bauer's first-ever non-fastball opening. It was July 10, and Scott Schebler was leading off. Schebler can really hit -- he had 30 homers last year and has hit about as well as Cody Bellinger, Matt Kemp and Kris Bryant this year -- and he is outrageously aggressive on the first pitch of the game, swinging at it a whopping 65 percent of the time during his 26 leadoff appearances. He has put seven of those 26 first pitches in play, four of them for hits, one of them for a home run. The day before Bauer faced him, he'd singled on a first-pitch fastball to lead off against Bauer's teammate Mike Clevinger. 所以這也解釋為何Bauer也投了第一次非快速球的開局，那是七月10號面對Scott Schebler，Schebler能打--去年尻了30支全壘打，他今年表現跟Cody Bellinger，Matt Kemp跟Kris Bryant一樣好--而且他對於打第一球非常的積極，26次的首打席，揮擊第一球 的比例高達65趴。26次裡面有七次是in-play，四次是安打，一支是全壘打。在面對Bauer 的前一天，Schebler面對Bauer隊友Mike Clevinger的第一球就敲出了一支一壘打。 So Bauer threw him a first-pitch curveball, to keep him off-balance. You'd think, in a world with powerful leadoff men swinging more often at first pitches, there'd be a lot more of this, that more pitchers would be doing what Scherzer is doing. But Scherzer is still the exception. This year has seen only a tiny bump in non-fastballs to start games: 所以Bauer對他投出的第一球是個曲球，讓Schebler失去平衡。所以，大家會想，在首打席 越來越猛，會對揮擊第一球的積極度越來越高的狀況下，應該會有更多的投手會像 Scherzer一樣，但是其實不然，Scherzer是個例外。今年的統計，用非快速球開局的比例 只有小小的改變： 2010: 2.8 趴 2011: 2.5 趴 2012: 2.0 趴 2013: 2.2 趴 2014: 1.6 趴 2015: 2.1 趴 2016: 2.2 趴 2017: 2.2 趴 2018: 2.7 趴 So why would pitchers throw something so predictable? Surely a curveball in such a spot, when a batter is almost certain that a fastball is coming, would be virtually unhittable. It seems irrational, with leadoff hitters increasingly looking to swing and increasingly capable of doing damage, to throw the one pitch they're looking for. 所以為什麼投手要投出一個大家都可以猜的到的球種呢？像是曲球就會是個好選擇，當打 者瞄準要揮擊快速球時，投手若是丟出曲球，這幾乎會讓打者打不到。這實在讓人想不 透，當首打席打者越來越會揮擊第一球，打者也越來越有攻擊性，可以造成傷害，投手仍 然要投首打席所要瞄準的球種呢？ The twist is this: The element of surprise doesn't seem to matter. Even when batters know the fastball is coming -- or think they do -- first-pitch curveballs and sliders haven't really been any more effective. 事實是這樣：讓打者嚇一跳的結果並不會有太大差別。即使打者知道快速球要來--或是他 們以為會是快速球--第一球投曲球或是滑球並不會更有效率。 We have, since 2010, about 42,000 first-pitch fastballs, and 960 first-pitch anything-elses. Whether it was a fastball or not has had no effect on whether a batter will swing (15.1 percent either way) or whether he will get a hit when he puts it in play (.364 average against fastballs vs. .368 otherwise). But pitchers are a lot more likely to throw a first-pitch curve or changeup out of the zone, and -- because the default is still that the leadoff batter won't swing at the first pitch -- that leads to more 1-0 counts. 從2010年起算，總共大概有42000個首打席第一球是快速球，960個不是快速球。不管投手 投的是快速球或非快速球，打者揮擊的比例(都是15.1趴)跟打成in-play而變成安打的比例 (面對快速球是.364，面對非快速球是.368)，兩者的差別不大。但是，投手可能因為第一 球投曲球或是變速球而投出了壞球--因為大部分首打席的打者對第一球通常是不打的--這 樣就讓打數變成了一壞球沒好球。 If we had 100 pitchers throw first-pitch fastballs to start off games and 100 throw first-pitch curves, changeups or sliders to start off games, these are what we'd end up with after the first pitch: 若是我們假設100個投手投快速球開局跟100個投手投非快速球來開局，以下是在投完第一 球後的結果： ┌───┬─────┬──────┐ │ │ 快速球 │ 非快速球 │ ├───┼─────┼──────┤ │一壞球│ 38 │ 42 │ ├───┼─────┼──────┤ │一好球│ 55 │ 53 │ ├───┼─────┼──────┤ │ 安打 │ 2.5 │ 1.8 │ ├───┼─────┼──────┤ │出局 │ 4.4 │ 3.1 │ └───┴─────┴──────┘ The curveballs avoid that extra hit, to be sure, but at the expense of four 1-0 counts. Do the math and the differences mostly cancel each other out, with the non-fastballs producing slightly more offense than fastballs. (An extra run every 700 or so games.) Which means that throwing exactly the pitch batters are expecting is perfectly rational. It might not be in any other situation -- pitchers are five times more likely to throw a non-fastball on the first pitch to the second batter of the game -- but here, in this spot, at that moment, with the pitcher and batter both just settling in, the element of surprise means nothing. 投曲球的確減少了安打，但是代價就是多了四個一壞球的球數落後。所以經過計算後兩者 的效果差別就幾乎沒分別了，非快速球大概對攻擊上的效果稍多(大約每700次會多一支安 打)。那也解釋了投手投出打者所預期的球的原因。那不代表所有的狀況，就像投手對於第 二打席的第一球會投非快速球的比例上升許多，是第一打席第一球的五倍--不過，在那當 下，投手跟打者都才要開始適應比賽，"出奇不意"大概沒啥效果。 If leadoff batters start to swing a lot more -- 25 or 30 percent, as batters do on the first pitch of non-leadoff at-bats -- that could change. Pitchers will adjust, if forced. Scherzer, for example, was forced: Batters this year are swinging at almost half the fastballs he throws to start games. They've got four hits against his first pitch this year, including a triple, and all four of those hits came on fastballs. 但是若是首打席打者開始對於第一球的揮擊比例增加--像是其他非首打席打者揮擊第一球 的比例25-30趴--狀況就有可能改變了，投手可能會被迫調整，就像是Scherzer一樣：打者 面對Scherzer的第一球是快速球揮擊的比例將近一半，打者對Scherzer的首投球總共敲出 了四支安打，其中包括了一支三壘打，而這四支安打都是面對快速球打出去的。 And that explains why Scherzer threw that first-pitch curveball to Carpenter. Carpenter took it low for ball one. 所以這解釋了Scherzer對Carpenter第一球投出的是曲球，因為偏低Carpenter沒撿，拿到 了一個壞球的球數。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 61.222.1.181 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1536558549.A.A53.html ※ 編輯: pneumo (61.222.1.181), 09/10/2018 13:49:45
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09/10 14:05, 5年前 , 1F
推 這篇有趣
09/10 14:05, 1F
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09/10 14:06, 5年前 , 2F
蠻有趣的
09/10 14:06, 2F
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09/10 14:07, 5年前 , 3F
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09/10 14:07, 3F
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09/10 14:07, 5年前 , 4F
推好文
09/10 14:07, 4F
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09/10 14:28, 5年前 , 5F
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09/10 14:28, 5F
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09/10 14:43, 5年前 , 6F
不只MLB吧 世界上大大小小棒球賽事投手登板第一球應該
09/10 14:43, 6F
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09/10 14:43, 5年前 , 7F
也絕大多數是快速直球~
09/10 14:43, 7F
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09/10 14:44, 5年前 , 8F
會不會快速球連發會被打者抓到節奏 但開賽第一球打者不太
09/10 14:44, 8F
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09/10 14:44, 5年前 , 9F
可能適應 所以就算打者知道也沒轍？
09/10 14:44, 9F
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09/10 14:45, 5年前 , 10F
要先確定裁判的好球帶所以通常會先丟快速球
09/10 14:45, 10F
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09/10 14:46, 5年前 , 11F
如果投手控球有隨心所欲到變化球都能愛丟好球就丟好球，我相
09/10 14:46, 11F
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09/10 14:46, 5年前 , 12F
信第一球丟變化球的比率會高很多
09/10 14:46, 12F
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09/10 14:48, 5年前 , 13F
還是要熱身一下吧
09/10 14:48, 13F
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09/10 14:52, 5年前 , 14F
有趣推！
09/10 14:52, 14F
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09/10 14:52, 5年前 , 15F
先投快速球嚇嚇對方(X
09/10 14:52, 15F
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09/10 14:52, 5年前 , 16F
好酷喔
09/10 14:52, 16F
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09/10 14:53, 5年前 , 17F
大部分打者傾向第一球不揮擊下的產物？！
09/10 14:53, 17F
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09/10 15:09, 5年前 , 18F
推 我也覺得應該是要確定好球帶所以要投好控的速球
09/10 15:09, 18F
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09/10 15:09, 5年前 , 19F
09/10 15:09, 19F
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09/10 15:13, 5年前 , 20F
很有趣的文章跟分析
09/10 15:13, 20F
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09/10 15:38, 5年前 , 21F
開場直球比例高順便試看看金達有多大吧
09/10 15:38, 21F
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09/10 15:40, 5年前 , 22F
Kershaw第一局都會try好球帶上下左右，有空可以看他比賽
09/10 15:40, 22F
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09/10 15:41, 5年前 , 23F
其實我覺得他真的很強，可以從剛上大聯盟的BB槍
09/10 15:41, 23F
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09/10 15:42, 5年前 , 24F
練到後來全盛期有點隨心所欲的感覺～加上主審對他又不錯
09/10 15:42, 24F
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09/10 15:45, 5年前 , 25F
酷
09/10 15:45, 25F
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09/10 15:51, 5年前 , 26F
有趣的分析～
09/10 15:51, 26F
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09/10 15:52, 5年前 , 27F
這個現象真的有趣，推
09/10 15:52, 27F
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09/10 15:53, 5年前 , 28F
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09/10 15:53, 28F
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09/10 15:57, 5年前 , 29F
這篇我有看到原文 是真的很有趣XD
09/10 15:57, 29F
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09/10 16:02, 5年前 , 30F
我玩MVP第一球也幾乎都4縫
09/10 16:02, 30F
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09/10 16:03, 5年前 , 31F
推，解答了我以前就有的疑問
09/10 16:03, 31F
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09/10 16:32, 5年前 , 32F
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09/10 16:32, 32F
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09/10 16:36, 5年前 , 33F
Wakefield: 嗯？
09/10 16:36, 33F
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09/10 17:14, 5年前 , 34F
有趣推
09/10 17:14, 34F
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09/10 17:21, 5年前 , 35F
應該也有測試球感跟好球帶的意味吧
09/10 17:21, 35F
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09/10 17:24, 5年前 , 36F
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09/10 17:24, 36F
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09/10 18:06, 5年前 , 37F
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09/10 18:06, 37F
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09/10 18:08, 5年前 , 38F
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09/10 18:08, 38F
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09/10 18:37, 5年前 , 39F
相對投手 打者也在抓感覺吧 所以就常常不揮
09/10 18:37, 39F
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09/10 18:50, 5年前 , 40F
有沒有第一球投速球和不是速球的ERA比較
09/10 18:50, 40F
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09/10 19:50, 5年前 , 41F
沒想到真的有人對此做了研究！
09/10 19:50, 41F
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09/10 19:54, 5年前 , 42F
當然先速球下馬威啊 投軟趴趴的曲球能看嗎
09/10 19:54, 42F
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09/10 19:59, 5年前 , 43F
好文推 除了確認好球帶 好像也有第一球直球接著手感比較好
09/10 19:59, 43F
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09/10 19:59, 5年前 , 44F
的說法？
09/10 19:59, 44F
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09/10 20:01, 5年前 , 45F
應該是因為打者開局球幾乎不打，才投直球搶好球數
09/10 20:01, 45F
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09/10 20:47, 5年前 , 46F
推一個
09/10 20:47, 46F
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09/10 20:57, 5年前 , 47F
好球帶 先測試一下
09/10 20:57, 47F
推
09/10 21:24, 5年前 , 48F
09/10 21:24, 48F
推
09/10 21:30, 5年前 , 49F
推
09/10 21:30, 49F
推
09/10 21:38, 5年前 , 50F
因為快速球最好投，Acuna也是抓這心態
09/10 21:38, 50F
推
09/10 21:58, 5年前 , 51F
第一球就全力催 Urena也是這樣一球砸人掰
09/10 21:58, 51F
推
09/10 22:43, 5年前 , 52F
有趣 推
09/10 22:43, 52F
推
09/10 23:15, 5年前 , 53F
推
09/10 23:15, 53F
推
09/11 00:16, 5年前 , 54F
啊先看一下，感覺一下啊.......第一球就出局常會被笑
09/11 00:16, 54F
推
09/11 00:28, 5年前 , 55F
推
09/11 00:28, 55F
推
09/11 00:32, 5年前 , 56F
一球怎麼看ERA...頂多看揮擊結果
09/11 00:32, 56F
推
09/11 00:37, 5年前 , 57F
可是很多SPLIT都有各種球數的ERA 雖然我也不懂那怎麼定義
09/11 00:37, 57F
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09/11 02:44, 5年前 , 58F
我的意思是先發投手第一球投速球場次的成績VS非速球的
09/11 02:44, 58F
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09/11 02:45, 5年前 , 59F
只看比賽我時常有投手第一球不是投速球時那場內容不會
09/11 02:45, 59F
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09/11 02:46, 5年前 , 60F
好的奇怪印象 不知道真的還假的
09/11 02:46, 60F
推
09/12 00:33, 5年前 , 61F
球數可以當成狀況跑 問題是一場比賽第一球壘上一定沒跑
09/12 00:33, 61F
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09/12 00:33, 5年前 , 62F
者 要掉分除非挨轟 樣本又不足 沒啥意義
09/12 00:33, 62F
推
09/12 06:04, 5年前 , 63F
讚
09/12 06:04, 63F
推
09/13 22:45, 5年前 , 64F
推有趣
09/13 22:45, 64F
推
09/14 16:43, 5年前 , 65F
很有意思
09/14 16:43, 65F
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