[外電] 到底太空人是怎麼打掉重練的?
來源: The New York Times
網址: http://tinyurl.com/y6vuteej
How the Astros Built a Contender From the Ground Up
到底太空人是怎麼打掉重練的?
HOUSTON — His bumbling team was 40 games under .500. Eleven times, the
Houston Astros had pushed a game into extra innings. Eleven times, they had
lost. This was an August morning in 2012, and few fans would show up to
Minute Maid Park later that night. The Astros would be shut out and lose for
the 25th time in 28 games.
他的隊伍那時距離五成勝率還差40場。11次太空人把比賽打進延長，但是11次都輸掉。那
時是2012年八月的早上，沒有甚麼球迷會要來看那天晚上的比賽。那場比賽太空人被完
封，近28場比賽輸了25場。
From his office beyond left field, in a converted train station on Crawford
Street, the team’s new architect made no excuses. Jeff Luhnow, the general
manager, had inherited the worst team in baseball. Fixing it would take time.
He didn’t have much else, but he had that.
Jeff Luhnow，太空人的新總管，坐在左外野外火車站改建的辦公室，他沒有任何的藉
口。太空人是個超級大爛隊，把它搞好需要時間，Luhnow甚麼沒有，就是有時間。
“A lot of clubs get into a situation where you know in your heart that the
team needs to rebuild, but at the same time you want to put a product on the
field that gives the fans some hope for the present,” said Luhnow, who had
been hired from the St. Louis Cardinals the previous winter. “You end up
getting stuck in the middle.”
「很多球隊會陷入一種狀況，就是你知我知大家都知道整隊需要打掉重練，但是又想把一
些好貨放在場上讓球迷有一點希望，」Luhnow說。Luhnow是前一年從紅雀隊聘來的。「這
樣常常會把自己陷在中間，兩邊都不行。」
The Astros wanted no part of the middle. Baseball had just implemented a new
collective bargaining agreement that greatly incentivized losing, giving the
worst teams the most money to spend on amateur talent. The Astros had picked
first in the draft that June, and would do so again in each of the next two
seasons.
太空人一點都不想這樣。有了新的團體協商協議激勵弱隊，讓爛隊有最多的錢可以花在有
希望的球員。那時太空人在六月可以有狀元籤，接下來兩年也是一樣。
Those No. 1 picks — the good and the bad — help shape the story of today’s
Astros, who roll into the Bronx for Game 3 of the American League
Championship Series on Monday after two victories at home.
這些狀元籤--有好有壞--都幫助了太空人達到今天的地位:打到美聯冠軍賽，先贏了兩
場，星期一要到紐約打第三戰。
In 2012, the Astros used the first pick to choose Carlos Correa, now their
superstar shortstop, who homered and doubled in the winning run in Game 2 on
Saturday. But in 2013, they chose Mark Appel, a Stanford right-hander who has
not appeared in the majors. In 2014, they took a high school pitcher, Brady
Aiken, who turned out to be injured.
在2012年，太空人選了Carlos Correa，現在是他們的明星游擊手，在上星期六的第二戰打
了全壘打跟二壘打，敲進了勝利打點。但是在2013年，他們選了Mark Appel，史丹佛大學
的右投手，目前都還沒在MLB打過。在2014年，他們選了個高中投手Brady Aiken，後來受
傷。
In a way, those picks illustrate the finicky nature of baseball prospects. In
a typical collection of three, one will blossom, one will fade and one will
get hurt. The difference is the Astros knew when to bail on the two busts and
how to salvage value from them.
在某種意義上，太空人的選秀結果凸顯了選擇棒球新秀的不確定性。這是典型的三個選秀結
果，一個可以開花結果，一個會不知道去哪裡，一個會受傷。太空人的差別是知道甚麼時候
放棄失敗的兩個，而且還可以從他們身上拿到剩餘價值。
When a physical exam revealed trouble in Aiken’s elbow, the Astros backed
off their plans to sign him for a $6.5 million bonus. Negotiations fell
apart, and the team used a compensatory pick in the next draft on Alex
Bregman, now their starting third baseman.
當體檢結果顯示Aiken的手肘有問題，太空人撤回原本要簽下他的650萬鎂的合約。後來協
商沒成，球隊拿到補償選秀，選到Alex Bregman，現在是先發三壘手。
And after their bullpen collapsed in a 2015 division-series loss to Kansas
City, the Astros traded with Philadelphia for closer Ken Giles, putting Appel
in a five-player package.
在2015年跟皇家的分區比賽牛棚崩盤後，太空人把Appel跟其他四個人拿去跟費城人換了終
結者Ken Giles。
“Everybody knew who he was,” Giles said. “When you’re a No. 1 overall
pick, everybody’s going to know who you are. For me, he was just another
player that got his opportunity, and I was another player that got my
opportunity. I just took a different route.”
「大家都知道他是誰，」Giles說。「當你是狀元，大家自然會知道你是誰。對我來說，他
只是一個有他自己機會的球員，而我也只是另一個有他自己機會的球員，我只是選了一條
不同的道路。」
Treating a No. 1 overall pick as just another player is not easy. So many
people in the organization commit to the choice, Luhnow said, and everyone
pays attention.
對待一個狀元跟其他球員一樣是不容易的。Lunhow說，球團裡很多人都押寶在選秀上，每
個人都睜大眼睛看。
“You want so desperately for that to work out, to validate all the people
involved in making that decision,” said Luhnow, who holds a master’s degree
in business administration from the Kellogg School of Management at
Northwestern. “But there’s a concept in business school called ‘forget
sunk costs,’ an economic concept that if things change, you can’t continue
to invest in that outcome improving if it’s not going to get better. There’
s certain times you just have to change your strategy. We did that in both
cases.”
「你真的很希望最後結果是好的，希望每個在決策圈裡的人都同意你的想法，」Luhnow
說。Luhnow本身有西北大學的MBA學位。「但是學校裡有教，『不要去在意沉沒成本』，
這是一個經濟學概念，是說當事情改變了，不要繼續投資在你知道結果不會變好的東西
上。有時候，你就是得改變策略，而在這兩個cases上，我們做到了。」
Appel needed elbow surgery last year and had a 5.27 E.R.A. in Class AAA this
season. Aiken had Tommy John surgery within a year of being drafted by the
Astros. The Cleveland Indians still selected him 17th over all in 2015, but
he had a 4.77 E.R.A. in Class A this season, with more walks than strikeouts.
Appel去年動了手肘手術，在今年3A球季ERA是5.27。Aiken在被太空人選上的時候去動了
Tommy John手術，到2015年被笑臉人以第17順位選走，今年1A球季ERA是4.77，保送的數
目比三振還要多。
Giles, meanwhile, converted 34 of 38 save chances this year and has averaged
13 strikeouts per nine innings over two seasons with Houston. Bregman hit
.284 with 19 home runs and 17 steals in his first full major league season.
He quickly found his place in a lineup he feared would have no room for him
on draft day.
而Giles呢? 今年球季在38次上場救援拿了34救援成功，過去兩個球季平均9局可以有13次
三振。Bregman今年第一次完整大聯盟球季，打擊有.284，19支全壘打。在選秀的那天，他
本來害怕上不了先發，而現在已經在先發名單中有一席之地。
“My first reaction was that they already had a really good shortstop, so I
didn’t know where I was going to play,” said Bregman, referring to Correa.
“Then they told me to play short in the minor leagues and then move to third
base. But I thought it was a fun organization, so much youth. It was just
kind of ahead of the curve in the analytical department and an organization
that works really hard.”
「我本來是想說我不知道我可以打哪個位置，因為太空人已經有了很好的游擊，」Bregman
說，他指的是Correa。「後來他們跟我說先在小聯盟守游擊，然後轉守三壘。但是我認為
這個球隊是個有趣的球隊，充滿年輕活力。最後表現是超過球團裡的分析部門的分析結
果。」
The chances of finding a high-impact player drop significantly from the first
pick to the second. In the history of the draft, which started in 1965, 21
players picked first have compiled at least 20 career wins above replacement,
according to baseball-reference.com. Just 12 players picked second have done
so.
找到好的球員機率從狀元到榜眼會驟降，在選秀歷史上，從1965年後，21個狀元生涯WAR會
超過20；而只有12個榜眼有這樣的表現。
But Luhnow said the Astros viewed Bregman as the best player in that 2015
draft class, ahead of Dansby Swanson, who went first to Arizona. Bregman
played at Louisiana State, and Swanson — who is now with Atlanta — played
at Vanderbilt. A senior scouting adviser, Charlie Gonzalez, vouched for
Bregman’s passion.
但是Luhnow說2015選秀的時候，太空人就認為Bregman是最好的球員，比Dansby Swanson更
好(那時去Arizona)。Bregman大學在路易斯安那州大打球，Swanson是替Vanderbilt大學打
球，現在在勇士。資深球探Charlie Gonzalez也替Bregman的熱情背書。
“They both put up really strong numbers in strong conferences on good teams,
and they both had similar track records and they both could play shortstop,”
Luhnow said. “But there was really that extra baseball-rat element to
Bregman.”
「他們倆個都是在很強的分區裡的好球隊，有好的數據，兩個紀錄都差不多，都可以守游
擊，」Lunhow說。「但是Bregman有一些其他的特質。」
Had the Astros made a different choice in 2013, though, they would have
already had a third baseman. When they took Appel — who had a clean medical
history and sound mechanics and had been chosen eighth over all by Pittsburgh
the year before without signing — they passed on Kris Bryant.
如果2013年太空人做了不同的選擇，他們就可以有一個三壘手了。他們選了Appel--那時他
的身體健康沒有傷痛，投球機制良好，在2012年海盜在第八順位選上但是沒簽下Appel--太
空人錯過了Kris Bryant。
The Chicago Cubs eagerly used the next pick on Bryant, who was the National
League Most Valuable Player last season and helped the Cubs win the World
Series. Bryant hit 54 homers while batting .353 over three years at the
University of San Diego, but he also fanned once every 4.7 at-bats. That
scared off the Astros.
小熊非常積極的在下一個選秀就選走Bryant，他是去年國聯MVP，幫助小熊拿下世界大賽冠
軍。Bryant三年在聖地牙哥大學打球的數據是54全壘打，打擊率.353，但是每4.7次
at-bats就會被三振，那數據嚇跑了太空人。
“Bryant had a higher risk profile just because he struck out at a rate that
we didn’t have a lot of people to compare him to,” Luhnow said. “We had
George Springer in our system who was striking out at a pretty high rate but
hitting for high power, and was an exciting player. That was probably the
biggest uncertainty that we had. We knew he would hit and hit with power. The
question was, with that kind of strikeout rate, what that would turn into in
the big leagues?”
「Bryant的整體數據風險性太高，他被三振的數值高到我們找不到甚麼球員可以拿來做參
考對象，」Luhnow說。「我們系統裡面找出了George Springer，也有很高的被三振率，打
擊也很有力，是個很好的球員，那大概是我們那時最不確定的部分。我們知道他能打，而
且是個大砲，但是問題是，有那種被三振率，到大聯盟的時候結果會怎樣?」
As badly as they missed on Bryant, though, the Astros made an inspired choice
in Correa, who was 17 and playing at the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy. The
Astros did not consider Correa among their top eight or so possibilities in
January of his draft year. But that May, acting on a tip from Mike Elias, now
an assistant general manager, they flew him to their Florida complex and used
him in a scrimmage at extended spring training.
雖然太空人嚴重錯估了Bryant，他們倒是明智的選了17歲在波多黎各棒球學院打球的
Correa。在Correa選秀那年的一月，太空人並沒把Correa列入他們前8個有潛力的選秀名
單。不過到了五月，按照現在的助理總管Mike Elias的建議，太空人讓Correa飛來太空人
佛羅里達的訓練基地，讓他跟球隊在延長春訓打練習賽。
The Astros were struck not just by Correa’s skills, but by his presence,
poise and confidence. In third grade, Correa had asked his parents to enroll
him in a bilingual school so he could do interviews in English when he
reached the majors. After signing with the Astros, he paid no attention to
the other No. 1 picks who followed.
太空人不是被Correa的棒球技巧給留下印象，反倒是他出場時的鎮定與自信讓球團留下印
象。在三年級的時候，Correa就希望他的父母把他送到雙語學校，這樣當他上大聯盟的時
候就可以用英文受訪。在跟太空簽約後，他對之後的幾年狀元是誰就沒有在管的了。
“I don’t even remember who it was,” Correa said. “I didn’t follow the
draft after that. I was more focused on what was going on at the big-league
level, because that’s where I wanted to be. I would keep up with every
single game, I would read every box score, see how the shortstops were doing.
I was trying to get there as soon as I could.”
「我沒在記狀元有誰的，」Correa說。「在我選完之後我就沒再看了。我更專注在大聯盟
等級的，因為那是我想去的地方，我每場比賽都有在關注，我會看每個賽後數據，看其他
的游擊守怎麼做，我希望上大聯盟打球，越快越好。」
Correa reached the majors within three years and won the American League
Rookie of the Year award in 2015. He hit .315 with 24 homers this season, and
his on-base plus slugging percentage, .941, was the best in the majors for
shortstops with at least 450 plate appearances.
Correa在三年內升上大聯盟，2015年拿下年度新人。今年打擊.315，24支全壘打，OPS
是.941，是聯盟裡PA至少450次以上的最佳游擊手。
Just as Bregman wears uniform No. 2 for his draft position, Correa wears No.
1. He has fully embraced the burden.
Bregman因為是選秀榜眼所以穿2號，所以Correa穿1號，而他對這『一號』所帶來的責任也
是甘之如飴。
“Oftentimes we care about how players handle failure; I care about how
players handle success,” Manager A. J. Hinch said. “There’s never been a
day that I’ve been his manager that he hasn’t talked about trying to get
better.”
「有時候我們在意球員如何面對失敗；我則是在意球員如何面對成功，」教練AJ Hinch
說。「我沒印象他有哪天他沒抓著問教練希望怎樣可以變得更好。」
Hinch added: “We’re just scratching the surface. This kid could bona fide
be the best player in baseball when all is said and done.”
Hinch更說，「我們現在只是剛開始，這小子無庸置疑會成為棒球裡的頂尖球員的。」
Correa and Bregman offered more to the Astros than potential. Both accepted
bonuses below the recommended value for their draft slot, allowing the Astros
to redistribute the savings to other premium picks whose demands scared off
other teams.
Correa跟Bregman對球隊的貢獻不只打球。兩個拿到的獎金都比他們的選秀建議值來的
低，所以太空人可以把錢拿去選其他一些要求價碼嚇走其他隊伍的好球員。
In Correa’s draft, the Astros paid above the slot value for pitcher Lance
McCullers Jr. and infielder Rio Ruiz. In Bregman’s draft, they used their
savings to help afford outfielder Daz Cameron. McCullers was an All-Star this
season, and Ruiz and Cameron have been traded — Ruiz to Atlanta in a deal
for catcher Evan Gattis, and Cameron to Detroit in a deal for the ace starter
Justin Verlander.
在Correa的選秀，他們把省下的錢去選了投手Lance McCullers Jr.跟內野手Rio Ruiz。在
Bregman的選秀，他們用省下的錢去選了外野手Daz Cameron。Mccullers今年有全明星的身
手，而Ruiz跟Cameron則是交易掉--Ruiz去勇士，換回捕手Evan Gattis；Cameron去老虎，
換到虎王Verlander。
This was all part of Luhnow’s plan, the reward for suffering while adhering
diligently to a blueprint. The Astros’ strategy bothered some other teams,
who grumbled that they were not trying to field a competitive major league
roster. Yet the Astros were using the rules to their advantage, and this is
the result.
這就是總管Lunhow的計畫，在經過慘痛過程但是堅守照著計畫走之後終於開花結果。太空
人的策略讓其他一些球隊有微詞，認為他們過去沒有試著在組織一個有MLB等級的先發。然
而太空人用規則來獲取優勢，今年終於完成了。
“It is satisfying to know that we stayed the course, we made adjustments
when we had to, and we executed the strategy that was best for the Houston
Astros, given our market size, our revenue, and where we started,” Luhnow
said. “It wouldn’t work for everybody, but it would certainly work for us.”
「看著球隊按照既定軌道走實在讓人滿意，我們在需要做調整的時候做出調整。基於我們
的市場大小，我們的預算跟我們一開始的狀況，我們做出對太空人最好的策略。」Luhnow
說。「不一定對其他球隊也一樣有用，但是看起來對我們有效。」
Now Luhnow’s challenge is sustaining a winner, and finding a way to beat a
system that helped him succeed. In that 2012 season, the five worst teams
were the Astros, the Cubs, the Colorado Rockies, the Minnesota Twins and the
Cleveland Indians. All made the playoffs this year. In the 2012 World Series,
the San Francisco Giants played the Detroit Tigers. This season, they were
the worst teams in the majors.
現在Luhnow的挑戰是要怎麼維持戰績，然後想辦法打敗這個讓他把球隊翻轉的系統。2012
年的球季最爛的五隊是太空人，小熊，落磯，雙城跟笑臉人。今年這五隊都打季後賽。而
2012年的世界大賽，巨人對老虎，但是今年兩隊則是則是墊底。
Picking first over all can rejuvenate a franchise. But the Astros would
rather not do it again.
選狀元可以迅速讓球隊回春，但是太空人不想再來一次。
“We’re going to do everything we can to avoid that cycle,” Luhnow said. “
We feel more of a sense of urgency, now that we’re having success, to make
sure that doesn’t happen to us.”
「我們會想辦法打破這個循環，」Luhnow說。「我們已經有點危機感，現在已經成功
了，現在要想辦法避免那個循環發生在我們身上。」
--
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※ 編輯: pneumo (140.136.28.159), 10/16/2017 10:53:08
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紐約時報壞壞
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我之前的翻譯文有說 我也是水兵粉 幫我水兵QQ
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已修正 感謝大大
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那句話的choice我也是很猶豫 看上下文我還是不確定
就留著讓大家幫忙判斷 謝謝大大的建議
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10/16 11:31,
6年前
, 26F
10/16 11:31, 26F
→
10/16 11:31,
6年前
, 27F
10/16 11:31, 27F
→
10/16 11:31,
6年前
, 28F
10/16 11:31, 28F
→
10/16 11:31,
6年前
, 29F
10/16 11:31, 29F
→
10/16 11:32,
6年前
, 30F
10/16 11:32, 30F
→
10/16 11:32,
6年前
, 31F
10/16 11:32, 31F
大大說的好 這個presence真的很難翻 所以我把他跟後面的poise跟confidence放在一起
推
10/16 11:33,
6年前
, 32F
10/16 11:33, 32F
→
10/16 11:34,
6年前
, 33F
10/16 11:34, 33F
還有 30 則推文
還有 9 段內文
推
10/16 13:36,
6年前
, 64F
10/16 13:36, 64F
推
10/16 13:47,
6年前
, 65F
10/16 13:47, 65F
→
10/16 13:48,
6年前
, 66F
10/16 13:48, 66F
噓
10/16 14:29,
6年前
, 67F
10/16 14:29, 67F
推
10/16 14:59,
6年前
, 68F
10/16 14:59, 68F
推
10/16 16:28,
6年前
, 69F
10/16 16:28, 69F
推
10/16 16:30,
6年前
, 70F
10/16 16:30, 70F
噓
10/16 16:32,
6年前
, 71F
10/16 16:32, 71F
噓
10/16 16:53,
6年前
, 72F
10/16 16:53, 72F
推
10/16 16:55,
6年前
, 73F
10/16 16:55, 73F
推
10/16 18:48,
6年前
, 74F
10/16 18:48, 74F
推
10/16 20:03,
6年前
, 75F
10/16 20:03, 75F
→
10/16 20:03,
6年前
, 76F
10/16 20:03, 76F
推
10/16 20:07,
6年前
, 77F
10/16 20:07, 77F
→
10/16 20:07,
6年前
, 78F
10/16 20:07, 78F
推
10/16 20:44,
6年前
, 79F
10/16 20:44, 79F
推
10/16 22:21,
6年前
, 80F
10/16 22:21, 80F
推
10/16 23:32,
6年前
, 81F
10/16 23:32, 81F
推
10/17 00:02,
6年前
, 82F
10/17 00:02, 82F
→
10/17 00:03,
6年前
, 83F
10/17 00:03, 83F
→
10/17 00:17,
6年前
, 84F
10/17 00:17, 84F
推
10/17 00:38,
6年前
, 85F
10/17 00:38, 85F
噓
10/17 01:16,
6年前
, 86F
10/17 01:16, 86F
推
10/17 02:51,
6年前
, 87F
10/17 02:51, 87F
噓
10/17 09:02,
6年前
, 88F
10/17 09:02, 88F
→
10/17 10:39,
6年前
, 89F
10/17 10:39, 89F
噓
10/17 11:19,
6年前
, 90F
10/17 11:19, 90F
→
10/17 11:19,
6年前
, 91F
10/17 11:19, 91F
→
10/17 11:54,
6年前
, 92F
10/17 11:54, 92F
噓
10/17 13:23,
6年前
, 93F
10/17 13:23, 93F
推
10/17 17:58,
6年前
, 94F
10/17 17:58, 94F
→
10/18 08:57,
6年前
, 95F
10/18 08:57, 95F
推
10/18 09:21,
6年前
, 96F
10/18 09:21, 96F
→
10/18 09:55,
6年前
, 97F
10/18 09:55, 97F
→
10/19 08:47,
6年前
, 98F
10/19 08:47, 98F
→
10/19 09:06,
6年前
, 99F
10/19 09:06, 99F
→
10/19 09:06,
6年前
, 100F
10/19 09:06, 100F
推
10/19 10:20,
6年前
, 101F
10/19 10:20, 101F
→
10/19 10:22,
6年前
, 102F
10/19 10:22, 102F
推
10/19 13:18,
6年前
, 103F
10/19 13:18, 103F