[外電] 歡迎來到這儘管打出三十轟但實際上卻爛到有剩的打者的年代。
By Sam Miller of ESPN
原文網址：http://tinyurl.com/y9gdl7tg
Welcome to the era of the terrible, horrible, no good,
very bad 30-home-run hitter
歡迎來到這儘管打出三十轟但實際上卻爛到有剩的打者的年代。
If I could put one memento from this home run era into the time capsule,
it would be Rougned Odor's line from June 30.
如果我要為這全壘打滿天飛的年代裡挑出一個最有代表性的事情，
那將會是Rougned Odor今年6/30比賽的表現。
Odor, the Texas Rangers' second baseman and No. 5 hitter that day, homered in
the fourth inning with a man on base. It was his 13th long ball of the year,
which used to be a lot. In 1988, the most formative year of my own baseball
fandom, 13 home runs would have led American League second basemen for the
entire season. Homers might not be as rare as they used to be, but they're
still the most valuable thing Odor could have done 13 times.
當天Odor是遊騎兵的先發第五棒，鎮守二壘。Odor在該場比賽的第四局擊出了他本季的第
十三發全壘打。如果把這個數字放到1988年球季來看，會是在所有美聯二壘手整季裡排名
第一。儘管在現今的MLB裡，全壘打已經不再那麼罕見，但那仍是Odor的表現中最值得一
提的事情。
In that game, he also grounded into an inning-ending double play with the
bases loaded, flied out, popped out and struck out. According to
run-expectancy estimates, Odor's bat actually cost the Rangers runs on a day
he hit a two-run homer. This was a very Rougned Odor accomplishment: He
closed June with a .207/.244/.376 slash line. He had been baseball's
second-worst-hitting second baseman.
Odor在該場比賽的其餘打席分別是雙殺打、飛球出局、小飛球出局以及三振。若根據得分
期望值來計算，儘管Odor當天打了一發兩分全壘打，但實際上他的表現其實是讓遊騎兵隊
少得一分的，這其實是一件非常Odor的。六月結束時，他的打擊三圍是.207/.244/.376，
這個成績在所有二壘手裡面排名倒數第二。
Things haven't gotten much better or -- if you're counting dingers -- much
worse. Depending on your filters, Odor has demolished previous Worst Season
With Most Homers fun facts. Before this season, no hitter had hit more than
26 homers with an OPS+ lower than 80 (which is to say, an OPS lower than 80
percent of the league's average). Odor has already hit 29 homers, with an
OPS+ of 67. He has actually been worse than that, since OPS undervalues OBP,
and Odor seems to also undervalue OBP. His .208/.251/.405 line through
Sunday, adjusted for his hitter-friendly ballpark, makes him the third-worst
qualified hitter in baseball, according to FanGraphs. Eight starting pitchers
have outhit him.
在那之後，事情的發展並沒有太大的不同。Odor正把"擊出最多全壘打的同時打擊表現卻是
最糟的"這個不光彩記錄的定義推向另一個層次。在Odor之前，沒有任何球員可以在至少
打出26發全壘打的同時OPS+還不到80，但Odor截止目前為止，打出了29發全壘打，但OPS+
僅有67，打擊三圍是.208/.251/.405，在經過球場因素校正後，Odor的wRC+全聯盟排名倒
數第三，在他前面的球員裡面，有八個是先發投手。
A rising home run tide tends to lift all boats, but a few archetypes become
most emblematic of each era. In the live-ball 1920s, it was the superstars
redefining offensive limits; in the steroids-fueled 1990s, it was the middle
infielders with suddenly thick forearms doubling their career highs; in the
analytics era of the mid-2000s, it was the super-patient plodders with
terrible defense but keen eyes. This era's avatar: the home run hitter who is
terrible.
棒球歷史上，每個年代都有著屬於自己的亮點。在20年代活球世代，球星們用手中的棒子
重新定義了何謂進攻及得分；類固醇充斥的90年代，中線內野手們的手臂忽然變粗變壯，
一度又一度地刷新他們的生涯紀錄；而在各項進階數據逐漸萌芽的千禧年代中期，我們可
以在球場上看到一群超級耐心，選球眼驚人，但守備糟糕透頂的球員。而現今的代表人物
則屬於一群轟了一堆全壘打，但實際上打擊貢獻度低落到不行的球員。
Odor -- who might not actually be terrible but definitely has been this year
-- is my favorite example. There's Mike Napoli, who has hit 29 home runs
while batting .193/.285/.428. Maikel Franco has hit 20 homers with a
.233/.286/.402 slash line. His teammate Tommy Joseph: 21 homers,
.236/.287/.427. Matt Davidson: 25 homers, .223/.267/.462. Albert Pujols,
arguably the worst everyday player in baseball this year, has hit 22 homers.
雖然Odor以往的打擊表現並不同今年那樣糟，但我還是很喜歡把他拿來當成案例探討。但
除了他之外，我們還有：Mike Napoli (29HRs, .193/.285/.428)，Mailkel Franco
(20HRs, .233/.286/.402)，Tommy Joseph (21HRs, .236/.287/.427)，Matt Davidson
(25HRs, .223/.267/.462)，以及，幾乎可以說是本季表現最差的每日先發球員 –
Albert Pujols (22HRs)。
There is really no precedent for this routine merger of home runs and
offensive incompetence. Three players come closest: In 1983, Tony Armas hit
36 homers with a .218/.254/.453 line. In 1986, Dave Kingman hit 35 homers
with a .210/.255/.431 line. In 2003, Tony Batista hit 26 bombs and
.235/.270/.393. The first two seasons came in low-offense eras, mitigating
those OBPs somewhat. The last one was probably the most Rougned Odor season
before Rougned Odor; Batista had a 73 OPS+.
在歷史上幾乎無法找出這種全壘打跟實際貢獻度反差那麼大的例子。最接近這個論點的球
員共有三位：1983年的Tony Armas (36HRs, .218/.254/.453)，1986年的Dave Kingman
(35HRs, .210/.255/.431)，2003的Tony Batista (26HRs, .235/.270/.393)。前兩位球
員身處在一個打擊沒那麼突出的世代，所以他們的OBPs相比起來也就沒那麼的悲劇，但最
後一位Tony Batista的表現可以說是在Rougned Odor以前最Odor的一位，當年他的OPS+為
73。
But if seasons such as Odor's have some precedent, the prevalence of them in
the past two years is striking and makes for a fun game of Try Telling
Somebody From 1988 That:
Try telling somebody from 1988 that the guy who led the National League in
home runs (Chris Carter, 41 with Milwaukee in 2016) wouldn't have a starting
job the next Opening Day.
Try telling somebody from 1988 that a hitter with 25 home runs in 112 games
(Ryan Howard) would go unsigned as a free agent and end up in Triple-A.
Try telling somebody from 1988 that an infielder with 34 homers in 142 career
games, including 14 in just 165 at-bats this year, would be demoted to the
minors by a fourth-place team and not called up again, not even in September.
That's Ryan Schimpf, who managed those 14 home runs while hitting just two
doubles.
除了Odor之外，這兩年還有一些事情是如果你把這些拿去跟1988年的人來說，
他們可能完全無法理解的：
‧一個上一季打出25發全壘打的自由球員沒人要簽，只好去打3A。 – Ryan Howard
‧一個身處分區第四名球隊的內野手生涯142場比賽中擊出34發全壘打，其中還包含本季
165個打席內打出14發全壘打，卻仍然被下放小聯盟，甚至連九月擴編時都沒被重新叫上
大聯盟。 - Ryan Schimpf
Or try telling somebody from 1988 that a good defensive second baseman with
30-plus home runs wouldn't be named on a single MVP ballot or make the
All-Star team. Since 1925, only 35 second basemen have hit 30 home runs. Last
year, Odor joined Dan Uggla as the only ones to get neither an All-Star
selection nor an MVP vote. And this year's version of Odor is far worse than
last year's. The worst of those 35 second-base seasons produced 1.6 WAR, and
the median 30-HR second baseman produced 5.9 WAR. Odor's WAR this year is
-0.2.
或者是你可以跟1988年的人說：一個守備絕佳同時可以打出超過30發全壘打的二壘手沒辦
法在該年入選明星賽而且連一張MVP選票都拿不到。事實上，從1925年起到現在，僅有35
個二壘手單季全壘打數超過30支的情況下，只有Odor是除了Dan Uggla之外，唯一一位有
此表現但得不到上述兩件事情肯定的人。
但Odor今年的表現跟去年比起來簡直是慘不忍睹，
前面提到那些曾經單季全壘打數達到30支的二壘手裡面最差的WAR為1.6，
而他們的平均WAR為5.9，反觀Odor今年的WAR是-0.2。
Here's another way to look at it: If you were to take away Odor's home runs,
his batting line would be .166/.214/.212. If you were to do that for every
hitter, every season since 1988, Odor would have the 14th-worst OPS by any
player with 300 plate appearances in three decades. He has company. Napoli
this year is fifth-worst, Luis Valbuena and Davidson are 11th- and
12th-worst, Austin Hedges is 18th-worst, and Brandon Moss is 27th-worst. Six
of the 30 worst non-HR-production seasons of the past 30 years happened this
year. (Ryan Howard, last year, would have the very worst.)
如果你把Odor今年的所有全壘打扣掉，他的打擊三圍將會是.166/.214/.212。然後你再對
1988年到現在所有打席數至少三百個以上的打者做出一樣的計算，Odor的OPS排名是倒數
第十四。但他並不孤單，Napoli的本季成績會是排名倒數第五，Luis Valbuena及
Davidson分居倒數第十一及十二，Austin Hedges排名倒數第十八，以及Brandon Moss排
名倒數第二十七。也就是說過去三十年來，在此種成績計算方式下，倒數三十名裡面有六
位的表現是取自今年球季。(至於誰是最糟的呢？去年的Ryan Howard。)
Of course, we don't take away their homers, which brings up the question of
whether Odor's absolute inability to do anything but homer is an indictment
of those homers or a vindication of them. Twenty-nine of his plate
appearances have single-handedly kept him in the majors. Those 29 plate
appearances have been enough to keep him in the lineup every day -- he leads
the American League in games played -- and presumably make him more valuable
to the Rangers than any other option they have. Those 29 plate appearances
are carrying a lot of weight and perhaps a career.
當然，我們不可能就這樣把那些全壘打給拿掉，但這也帶出了一個問題，就是像Odor這樣
除了全壘打外一無是處的打擊表現下，這29支全壘打的重要性是否真的足以讓他一直先發
上場，甚至成為美聯裡面上場次數最多的球員嗎？難道遊騎兵隊中沒有其他人的表現可以
取代他嗎？那這29個打數實在是太重要，幾乎足以支撐他的生涯。
Hedges is the strongest example of this position. Hedges is an elite
defensive catcher whose bat was questionable for most of his minor league
career. He hit .225/.272/.314 in Double-A, then .168/.215/.248 in 56 games in
his rookie season. "Although defense will always be Hedges' calling card and
should keep him around for a long time, he'll need to start hitting if he's
to become more Brad Ausmus than Jeff Mathis," Baseball Prospectus wrote in
its 2016 preseason annual.
Hedges可說是代表這個情況的最佳例子。Hedges是個防守卓越的捕手，但他小聯盟時期的
打擊表現卻是不足為提。在2A時期，他的打擊三圍是.225/.272/.314，然後升上大聯盟的
新人球季為.168/.215/.248。在那之後，Baseball Prospectus給他的評語是：「儘管
Hedges的防守就是他的優勢，也可以讓他在聯盟裡待上好一段時間。但如果他想成為
Brad Ausmus而不是Jeff Mathis的話，他最好開始好好練練他的打擊了。」
He has, and he hasn't. Compared to 2015, Hedges has greatly increased his fly
ball rate (from 36 to 46 percent), and his launch angle has literally
skyrocketed from 11.3 degrees to 17.6 degrees -- from roughly league average
to 90th percentile. He swings at far more pitches in the strike zone (from 65
percent to 70 percent), and the fact that he whiffs on more of those pitches
in the zone (79 percent contact rate, down from 85) suggests that he is
swinging harder at them. His whiff rate on two strikes is up, suggesting, as
well, that he isn't shortening up and protecting with two strikes.
而他辦到了，但同時他也失敗了。與2015年相比，Hedges擊中的球裡飛球比例從36%提高
到46%，他的揮擊角度從約在聯盟平均的11.3度上揚到前10%的17.6度，他針對投進好球帶
的球的出棒比例從65%增加到70%，但他的成功擊球率也從85%下降到79%，代表他揮得更大
力。再者，他兩好球時的揮空率更大，代表他在這個情況下不會特別縮短他的揮棒軌跡來
保護好球帶。
Those changes have consequences. He has struck out even more this year, his
walk rate remains one of the worst in baseball, and he has hit a lot more
infield popups. Fly balls that stay in the park rarely land for base hits,
and infield popups virtually never do; his batting average on balls in play
ranks him 215th out of 227 major league hitters (min. 350 PA) this year.
Hedges' .172/.222/.211 homerless line this year is even worse than Mathis'
career homerless line (.181/.242/.229 line).
上述這些改變隨之後來的結果就是他今年被三振次數增加，而保送次數依舊是處於聯盟末
段班，同時他打出更多內野小飛球，那些沒有飛出場外的球幾乎很少落地形成安打，而擊
球成功的打擊率在全聯盟227名打席數至少350個的打者內排名215，而他今年扣掉全壘打
後的三圍是.172/.222/.211，比Jeff Mathis的生涯扣掉全壘打後的三圍.181/.242/.229
還要糟。
But those changes also have benefits: He has 17 homers, including seven with
two strikes. An extra dozen or so times a year, he manages to do the very
best thing a hitter can do. His actual, with-home-runs line --
.211/.255/.393, for a 70 OPS+ -- is, indeed, closer to Brad Ausmus' career
(75 OPS+) than Mathis' career (52).
但這些改變也有讓他得到某種程度上的成功，他本季擊出了17支全壘打，其中有七發是在
兩好球時打出。而他的真正打擊三圍.211/.255/.393，70 OPS+，的確是更接近Ausmus的
75 OPS+，而非Mathis的52 OPS+。
Clearly, there are good hitters who added loft to their swings, changed their
approaches, took advantage of the live ball and became superstars: J.D.
Martinez, Justin Turner, Josh Donaldson and others. There are also bad
hitters who did all this and became more productive, despite their
limitations, such as Hedges.
當然還是有許多好打者在調整他的打擊仰角後成功發光發熱，如J.D Martinez，Justin
Turner，Josh Donaldson…等；也有某些糟糕的打者如Hedges在這樣做之後得到一定程度
的成功。
On the other hand, the approach that leads to more home runs might come at a
cost for some hitters. Odor's strikeouts are way up from his first two
seasons in the majors. He hits a lot of fly balls -- 27th-most in baseball,
among 149 qualified hitters -- but the rest of his batted ball profile is
terrible. Only eight hitters in baseball have hit more infield popups, and
only five have hit fewer line drives.
但就另一方面來看，對某些打者來說，打出更多全壘打的同時也付出了相對應的代價。
Odor今年的被三振率遠高於前兩季，他打了相當多的飛球，在達到計算基準的149名球員
內排行第二十七。但這些飛球的品質卻是十分糟糕，只有八位打者打出比他更多的內野小
飛球，然後只有五名打者的平飛球數量比他還少。
If I were Odor's hitting instructor, I have no idea whether I'd advise him to
keep swinging for the fences -- keep doing the one good thing he can do on
offense -- or change everything because this isn't really working. That's one
of the challenges of playing in a league in which home runs are suddenly
cheap, but hitting is otherwise as complex and difficult as ever.
如果我是Odor的打擊教練，我還真不知道該怎麼去修正他的問題。到底我應該叫他繼續保
持這種全力出棒的擊球方式，還是直接砍掉重練。如今的世道全壘打滿天飛已不再值錢，
但是打擊這門藝術卻變得比以往更加艱深複雜，要怎麼去定位何謂適合正確可說是個艱鉅
的挑戰。
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1505898405.A.D8C.html
※ 編輯: ted10 (1.34.112.178), 09/20/2017 17:07:59
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09/21 11:34, 101F
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09/21 11:35, , 102F
09/21 11:35, 102F
→
09/21 11:51, , 103F
09/21 11:51, 103F
→
09/21 12:14, , 104F
09/21 12:14, 104F
→
09/21 12:14, , 105F
09/21 12:14, 105F
→
09/21 12:14, , 106F
09/21 12:14, 106F
推
09/21 13:20, , 107F
09/21 13:20, 107F
→
09/21 13:57, , 108F
09/21 13:57, 108F
推
09/23 02:39, , 109F
09/23 02:39, 109F
推
09/24 04:45, , 110F
09/24 04:45, 110F