[情報] 球探bWAR+
用球探選進的球員所貢獻的bWAR+判斷球探有多凱瑞
取樣:四年以上球探長經歷
選進新秀總貢獻bWAR+
1. Bill Lajoie – 258.9
2. Joe McIlvaine – 234.4
3. Logan White – 184.9
4. Mickey White – 172.4
5. Kris Kline – 164.3
6. Mike Rizzo – 159.1
7. Jason McLeod – 157.8
8. Roger Jongewaard – 154.5
9. Tom Allison – 152.8
10. Mel Didier – 152.2
Bill Lajoie選中球員所貢獻的bWAR+是大聯盟球探長平均值的2.5倍, Lou Whitaker,
Alan Trammell, Jack Morris, Lance Parrish, Kirk Gibson都是被他選中簽下來的球員
,他也選過Ozzie Smith,但並未留住他。
Joe McIlvaine屈居第二。只是他更細水長流,每年平均貢獻大聯盟球員5.8人比Lajoie的
4.6更優。他簽下Lenny Dykstra, Dwight Gooden, Dave Magadan, Rick Aguilera, Gregg
Jefferies,選過Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro以及Matt Williams。
02-14年時,Logan White是躲人的球探長。他任內簽下Clayton Kershaw, Russell Martin
Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton。選過David Price,Paul Goldschmidt
Mark Melancon。
簽下新秀總貢獻bWAR+
1. Bill Lajoie – 273.83
2. Dick Wiencek – 197.93
3. Tom Allison – 182.20
4. Mickey White – 181.92
5. Kris Kline – 179.31
6. Neil Mahoney – 174.93
7. Bob Engle – 174.11
8. Mike Arbuckle – 172.78
9. Roger Jongewaard – 166.34
10. R.J. Harrison – 161.88
平均每屆選秀登上大聯盟人數
1. Jeff Luhnow – 8.14
2. Tom Allison – 8.00
3. Jason McLeod – 7.20
4. Bill Gayton – 7.11
5. Terry Ryan – 6.80
6. Brian Sabean – 6.71
7. Dick Bogard – 6.40
8. Matt Nerland – 6.38
9. Gary Hughes – 6.30
10. Bob Engle – 6.20
現今在任或曾任職球探長而後轉任的前球探長中。Mike Rizzo與Brian Sabean選過新秀
貢獻值150.9 bWAR+是最高的,而後是Terry Ryan的151,常被闖空門慘遭搶劫的Jeff
Luhnow擁有99.6(平均每年8.1位新秀登上大聯盟),小熊球探長Jason McLeod有是157.8
/7.2,Jaron Madison 142.2/4.6,水兵球探長Tom Allison 152.8(在小蛇任內簽下Paul
Goldschmidt, Josh Collmenter, Jarrod Parker, Bryan Shaw, Collin Cowgill, Ryan
Wheeler, A.J. Pollock, Matt Davidson, Chris Owings),國民隊的Kris Kline 164.3
/3.75。
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取樣:因應選秀規則改變影響公平,排除2009年以前未擔任球探長職務者
所選中的新秀爾後成為大聯盟球員的簽約成功率
1. Neil Mahoney – 93.94%
2. Jim Hendry – 93.75%
3. Jeff Luhnow – 91.94%
4. Al Goldis – 91.43%
5. Grady Fuson – 90.00%
6. Mike Arbuckle – 89.13%
7. Sandy Johnson – 89.13%
8. Bob Engle – 88.57%
9. Pat Daugherty – 87.76%
10. Gary Hughes – 87.50%
* 扣除國民Kline、皇家Lonnie Goldberg、條子Kip Fagg、
教士/小熊Jaron Madisom這群95%以上。
Daugherty簽下的著名球員有Matt Holliday, Todd Helton, Juan Pierre, John Thomson,
Aaron Cook, Jake Westbrook;Bob Engle簽下的明星有Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay,
Shawn Green, Shannon Stewart。
簽下的大聯盟球員對比沒簽下的大聯盟球員 WAR貢獻比例
1. Larry Doughty – 100.76%
2. Rudy Terrasas – 99.63%
3. Jeff Luhnow – 99.36%
4. Harding Peterson – 99.23%
5. Chris Buckley – 99.20%
6. Neil Mahoney – 99.14%
7. Jim Hendry – 98.92%
8. Tom Allison – 98.78%
9. Deric Ladnier – 98.01%
10. Jeff Scott – 97.58%
* 撤除 Tom McNamara, Ray Montgomery, Kline, Goldberg, Jaron Madison
第一名超過100%的原因是因為他生涯選中而未簽下的球員中,只有五位登上大聯盟。
而這五位的總貢獻的WAR是負的 XD ;第二名的Rudy Terrasas在任期06-10年簽下Matt
Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz 與 Daniel Murphy。Chris Buckley目前是紅人
的球探長,雖然他的職業生涯並未簽下超級大明星,但他幾乎簽下所有選進的新秀;
Deric Ladnier於01-08年任職於皇家隊打造皇家現今的陣容,並在小蛇替勇士隊選進
Dansby Swanson。
遺留最多大聯盟天賦的球探
1. Joe McIlvaine – 286.7
2. Paul Snyder – 223.5
3. Roland Johnson – 208.5
4. George Silvey – 184.7
5. Joe Bowen – 174.4
6. Walter Shannon – 173.7
7. Terry Reynolds – 170.7
8. Al Campanis – 156.9
9. Roland Hemond – 137.7
10. Jack Schwarz – 131.4
http://www.hardballtimes.com/scouting-the-scouting-directors-part-1/
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