Fw: [分享] 轉速-MLB投手的新標準 (二)

看板MLB作者 (Creep)時間9年前 (2016/04/03 14:40), 9年前編輯推噓27(27推 0噓 32→)
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※ [本文轉錄自 Baseball 看板 #1N0Bfgb1 ] 作者: WillWaiting (Creep) 看板: Baseball 標題: [分享] 轉速-MLB投手的新標準 (二) 時間: Sun Apr 3 14:38:29 2016 http://www.sportstalkflorida.com/spin-rate-the-new-standard-for-mlb-pitchers http://i.imgur.com/EfLGPlf.gifv Here's a chart put together by Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci than correlates breaking ball RPM's with pitcher success: 以下是SI的Tom Verducii對變化球轉速跟數據的表 SPIN RATE AVG SLG Swing Strike % Low (< 2,300 RPM) .244 .403 8% Average (2,300-2,500 RPM) .185 .340 10% High (2,500 - 2,700 RPM) .178 .251 12% Very High (> 2,700 RPM) .166 .212 15% It speaks for itself. 這說明了一切 Fastball's are another story, because having a low RPM on the pitch isn't necessarily a bad thing. Less rotation = more sink. The average major league fastball has an RPM between 2,000 and 2,200. 速球是另一回事,因為低轉速不一定是壞事,轉速少=越沉.MLB投手平均速球轉速在 2000到2200轉之間 That's not where you want to be. That's meat for major league hitters. 在這之間不是好事,對大聯盟打者來說跟肉包球一樣 You want to be on one end of the spectrum or the other. Astros' ace Dallas Keuchel is a ground ball inducing machine. 64.88% of balls put in play against him are ground balls, despite the fact his average fastball is around 90 MPH. So why is he having so much success getting hitters to put the ball on the ground and make weak contact? 你想在這譜中的某一個尖端或是另一個, 太色人的Keuchel是滾滾人, 64.88%的滾率, 僅管他球速只有90mph,但他為什麼成為這麼成功的滾球投手 https://cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3685200/keuchel_video.0.mp4 His spin rate on the pitch is an absurd average of 1,600 RPM. 他的轉速只有太狂的1600轉 Let's take a look at the other side. Many hitters use the phrase "the ball seems to jump on you." That's an indication of high spin rate. While the ball isn't actually rising, it's staying on the same plane for a much longer period of time than a pitch thrown with a low spin rate, which is hard for hitters to square up because there bodies and brains are trained to expect the ball to come from a normal downward plane with a normal progression. 由另一個角度看,很多打者用"球忽然向上飛了",這代表了高轉速,儘管球不是真的往上 跑,這代表高轉速的球掉的比低轉速的慢,這對於打者很難去揮中,因為他們的大腦已經 習慣於一般預期的軌跡 When the ball stays up on a pitch with high spin rate, that's where you see weak fly balls and swings and misses. 當球有高轉速時,代表的是高飛球率,高揮空率 Red Sox closer Koji Uehara is a prime example of success correlating with high spin rate. Uehara's average fastball hovers around 88 MPH, so why is he striking out close to 11 batter per nine innings in his major league career when guys pumping fastball's 10 MPH harder can't even come close to that kind of swing and miss success? 紅襪守護神上原浩治是另一個高轉速的成功範本,上原的速球只有88mph,但他為什麼 K/9高達11呢?為什麼比他快10mph的投手都很難有這麼高的三振率? You guessed it. Spin. Rate. Uehara's fastball has a spin rate closing in on 2,500. The fact hitters only get to see him once a game--with no time to adjust--makes him particularly difficult to barrel up. 你猜對了,轉-速-! 上原的轉速高達2500轉,由於打者可能只會在一場中看到他一次, 沒時間去適應,使他更難被打倒 MLB Advanced Media has yet to release all the data collected on every major league pitcher and their spin rate, but they did leak the top six arms in terms of average spin rate among repertoires, and the list leader--Garrett Richards--is considered the modern day king of spin rate and would likely have a 0.00 ERA every season if all that came with pitching was spin rate related. MLB Advanced Media還沒釋出全部投手的轉速,但他們透露了最好的六個手臂,用 轉速來評估的話,而在這裡面的領先者-Garrett Richards,被認為是現代轉速的王者 如果用ERA來說的話就是0這樣的感覺 Richards 2,755 RPM slider is second in baseball, and his three fastballs cutter, two-seamer and four-seamer all rank in the top 11. Richards的2755轉滑球是全部第二名,而他的速球卡特,二縫,四縫都在前11 Translation: guy is nasty. 翻譯:這傢伙他x的難打 Let's take a look at the rest of the list. 看看剩下的表 1. Garrett Richards, LAA 2. Jesse Hahn, OAK 3. Colin McHugh, HOU 4. Max Scherzer, WSH 5. Rick Porcello, BOS 6. Jake Arrieta, CHC Not the most impressive list in the world is it? Sure, all these pitchers have had success in 2015 and in the past, but save for Scherzer, you can argue that there's not another perceived top 25 starting pitcher in the group. 看看這張令人驚嘆的表了沒?沒錯,這表全部的投手都在2015跟以前成功,但你可能會說 除了Scherzer之外沒有人是前25的先發 Where's Clayton Kershaw? King Felix? I guess we'll have to find out where they stack up when the complete list comes out later this summer, but while this is certainly an interesting statistic to track, it speaks to me the way I thought it might. 書僮跟King呢?我想我們只能夠等整張表在晚點的夏天出來才能夠講講, 這東西是很有趣的統計數字,這印證了我心中所預期的 There's more to a successful MLB pitcher than just spin rate. Calm down data junkies. 成功的MLB投手需要擁有比轉速更多的東西,數據狂,冷靜點 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 96.93.71.126 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Baseball/M.1459665514.A.941.html ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ※ 轉錄者: WillWaiting (96.93.71.126), 04/03/2016 14:40:15
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04/03 14:45, , 1F
最後一句翻錯了，應該是：成功的MLB投手需要擁有比轉速
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更多的東西，數據派的，冷靜點！
04/03 14:46, 2F
感謝 翻太快沒翻對
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04/03 14:49, , 3F
薛蛇那段應該是說 你可能會說 除了他以外沒有其他前25名
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的投手
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感謝 斷句有誤 ※ 編輯: WillWaiting (96.93.71.126), 04/03/2016 14:51:26
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04/03 14:50, , 5F
不過這樣好像也怪怪的 JA也是Top 25 先發啊
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04/03 14:52, , 6F
這文發在Arrieta大爆發前
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04/03 14:54, , 7F
也就是說那時候轉速已經預測他應該是很強的投手
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04/03 14:55, , 8F
只是可能衰小數據不好而已
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※ 編輯: WillWaiting (96.93.71.126), 04/03/2016 14:59:36
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04/03 14:59, , 9F
Arrieta是被金鶯改爛的 小熊讓他放開來投就爆發了
04/03 14:59, 9F
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04/03 15:01, , 10F
陳偉殷和上原浩治都破2500轉！
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04/03 15:04, , 11F
好奇巔峰時期Pedro Martinez速球轉速多少
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04/03 15:05, , 12F
可能要坐時光機去裝機器來測了
04/03 15:05, 12F
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04/03 15:07, , 13F
好的轉速=好的武器 好武器只是好投手的其中一個要素
04/03 15:07, 13F
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04/03 15:11, , 14F
理查沒前25嗎
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04/03 15:18, , 15F
Richards直球轉速不是很低嗎
04/03 15:18, 15F
MLB的資料沒說是最快的11個還是最慢的11個 還有舊版的PITCH f/x轉速沒有新板的statcast準 ※ 編輯: WillWaiting (96.93.71.126), 04/03/2016 15:25:17
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04/03 15:22, , 16F
所以是否轉速越高代表尾勁越強?
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04/03 15:30, , 17F
老王在佛州測出來的轉速是1400-1450RPM 難怪那麼沉
04/03 15:30, 17F
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04/03 15:31, , 18F
棒球大聯盟說的都是真的!
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04/03 15:58, , 19F
推推 這篇大概解答了Keuchel為什麼這麼屌
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04/03 15:58, , 20F
datajunky是醜化那些只看表面數據而缺乏分析的份子
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04/03 15:59, , 21F
的名詞 並不是我們通常指稱的數據派
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了解
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04/03 16:00, , 22F
每次看Keuchel都在想他的曲球或者說是滑球是不錯
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※ 編輯: WillWaiting (96.93.71.126), 04/03/2016 16:02:49
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04/03 16:03, , 23F
但說Sharp好像也還好 加一顆90mile的直球尾勁也不是特
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04/03 16:03, , 24F
Keuchel直球完全沒尾勁!
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04/03 16:04, , 25F
別強 卻可以讓大聯盟打者打他像白癡一樣
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04/03 16:05, , 26F
不是棒頭壓過低的鳥飛就是一直滾地球
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04/03 16:12, , 27F
因為王建民 轉數突然變得很夯 但並不是轉數愈高或是
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04/03 16:12, , 28F
愈低就是好 要搭配不同的球種、出手角度等做分析才
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04/03 16:13, , 29F
有用 好比BABIP 若不搭配其他數據就是一個沒什麼意義
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的統計數據
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04/03 16:14, , 31F
這是當然的 只有轉速沒有控球,球速,角度都不行
04/03 16:14, 31F
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04/03 16:15, , 32F
儘就分析選手的能力而言
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04/03 16:21, , 33F
但是球速和控球是可以單獨提出來評價一個投手 但轉速
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04/03 16:21, , 34F
若沒有搭配球種和出手角度(其他我沒有想到的因素) 就
04/03 16:21, 34F
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04/03 16:21, , 35F
是一個沒什麼用的數據
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04/03 16:34, , 36F
curve and FA 轉相反方向啊......
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04/03 17:12, , 37F
講到轉速的作用可以看漫畫「one outs」
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04/03 17:29, , 38F
深入研究應該是看轉速跟甚麼有關係吧
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04/03 18:04, , 39F
從電視上看投手 和從打擊區上看投手 是完全不同的概
04/03 18:04, 39F
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04/03 18:04, , 40F
念 因為就算是同樣的軌跡 出手的方式有差別給打者感
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覺就會不同
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04/03 19:09, , 42F
球速 轉速 轉軸傾角 出手方式
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04/03 20:30, , 43F
有沒有人好奇萬轉的球看起來會是怎樣啊？機械應該辦到到？
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04/03 21:20, , 44F
推上原
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04/03 22:27, , 45F
樓樓上 google織女星 大概就是那樣
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04/03 22:36, , 46F
樓上，我想你要講的應該是中子星，但即便是中子星
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04/03 22:37, , 47F
轉最快的毫秒脈衝星(MSP)也只有700rps。
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04/03 22:39, , 48F
附帶一提，織女星的自轉週期是12.5hr。
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04/03 22:50, , 49F
樓上專業天文學家 XD
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04/03 22:58, , 50F
織女星wwww
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04/03 23:16, , 51F
不愧是Astro
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04/03 23:17, , 52F
阿我看錯了XD
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04/04 01:56, , 53F
看棒球學天文XD
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04/04 01:58, , 54F
這顆中子星的尾勁很強
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04/04 02:26, , 55F
我以為是轉速離平均越遠越好 不管高或低 跟平均就不好打
04/04 02:26, 55F
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04/04 08:52, , 56F
轉速是可以刻意練出來的嗎 還是天生投球機制不同造就不同
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轉速
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04/04 16:34, , 58F
吳昇桓有刻意練扣球
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04/04 17:54, , 59F
武田翔太的排球殺球法大曲球不知道幾轉
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