[外電] KATOH的2016年百大新秀排名
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-prospect-list-for-2016/
原文來自FANGRAPHS，這個作者Chris Mitchell的KATOH系統分析的農作物排行
這邊有有關KATOH是啥的解釋:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-primer-on-a-new-and-improved-katoh/ 新系統
http://tinyurl.com/zv53wgs 舊系統
非常有趣，尤其是第二個網頁
但也非常長，敝人眼睛不好，有機會再好好翻譯，英文好的人建議自己看~
不想懂KATOH的人也沒關係，反正發這篇只是要貼排行的部分，另外作者有強調
他只看至少有300PA的，所以像2015才進來的新人打數太少就不列了
還有他的模型原則上是參考2015年的成績，為了顧慮2014年(其實應該要顧慮)
最後還是做了補充
※所謂WAR thru 28就是預測這個球員到28歲，WAR的累積值，當然是越高越好
而後面的2014 WAR thru 28是作者後來補充，也就用他的新模型來看該球員在2014
年的成績的WAR評測(前面說了作者原本只單獨參考2015年)，這樣的用意是要給大家看
某些球員進幅非常巨大，像排名第一的的Max Kepler。
KATOH’s Top 100 Prospects for 2016
Rank Player Team WAR thru 28 2014 WAR thru 28
1 Max Kepler Twins 19.6 0.8
2 J.P. Crawford Phillies 17.5 6.3
3 Corey Seager Dodgers 16.4 9.4
4 Julio Urias Dodgers 15.6 4.5
5 Orlando Arcia Brewers 14.5 4.5
6 Alex Verdugo Dodgers 14.5 3.4
7 Jake Bauers Rays 13.3 3.4
8 Albert Almora Cubs 12.8 3.3
9 Nomar Mazara Rangers 12.7 5.4
10 Ozhaino Albies Braves 12.4 4.0
11 Manuel Margot Padres 12.0 6.2
12 Billy McKinney Cubs 11.2 1.7
13 Jamie Westbrook D-backs 11.2 0.9
14 Gavin Cecchini Mets 11.2 1.9
15 Jacob NottinghamAthletics 11.0 0.1
16 Alex Reyes Cardinals 10.8 1.6
17 Tyler Glasnow Pirates 10.8 5.4
18 Jose Berrios Twins 10.6 4.5
19 Jose Peraza Dodgers 10.6 5.3
20 Willson ContrerasCubs 10.1 0.1
21 A.J. Reed Astros 9.9 1.3
22 Chance Sisco Orioles 9.7 7.1
23 Rafael Devers Red Sox 9.6 2.3
24 Lewis Brinson Rangers 9.2 0.4
25 Ruddy Giron Padres 9.1 #N/A
26 Austin Meadows Pirates 8.7 #N/A
27 Samir Duenez Royals 8.3 2.3
28 Dom Nunez Rockies 8.0 #N/A
29 Lucas Giolito Nationals 7.9 2.5
30 Ramon Flores Brewers 7.7 4.1
31 Trea Turner Nationals 7.6 0.6
32 Willi Castro Indians 7.5 #N/A
33 Josh Bell Pirates 7.5 3.1
34 Juremi Profar Rangers 7.5 0.7
35 Franklin BarretoAthletics 7.4 2.9
36 Jesse Winker Reds 7.4 3.0
37 Sam Travis Red Sox 7.3 1.9
38 Carlos Tocci Phillies 7.3 0.5
39 Renato Nunez Athletics 7.1 2.3
40 Brett Phillips Brewers 6.8 6.2
41 Blake Snell Rays 6.4 0.9
42 Trey Mancini Orioles 6.4 0.5
43 Jeimer CandelarioCubs 6.4 0.8
44 Gleyber Torres Cubs 6.3 3.0
45 Hanser Alberto Rangers 6.2 1.8
46 Reese Mcguire Pirates 6.1 2.7
47 Byron Buxton Twins 6.1 #N/A
48 Mallex Smith Braves 6.1 0.9
49 Jomar Reyes Orioles 6.0 1.1
50 Alex Bregman Astros 5.9 #N/A
51 Tyler Heineman Astros 5.9 1.4
52 Andrew Knapp Phillies 5.7 0.1
53 Dominic Smith Mets 5.6 0.6
54 Boog Powell Mariners 5.5 0.7
55 Ben Gamel Yankees 5.5 0.2
56 Cole Tucker Pirates 5.4 0.5
57 Javier BetancourtBrewers 5.4 1.1
58 Gary Sanchez Yankees 5.3 1.4
59 Nick Williams Phillies 5.3 0.3
60 Edwin Diaz Mariners 5.2 0.9
61 Clayton Blackburn Giants 5.2 4.6
62 Christian Arroyo Giants 5.1 4.6
63 Josh Hader Brewers 5.1 1.5
64 Yairo Munoz Athletics 5.0 2.2
65 Jose De Leon Dodgers 4.8 1.4
66 Austin Barnes Dodgers 4.8 4.8
67 Daniel Robertson Rays 4.8 5.1
68 Rhys Hoskins Phillies 4.7 0.1
69 Brandon Drury D-backs 4.6 3.0
70 Michael Fulmer Tigers 4.6 0.7
71 Zachary Davies Brewers 4.6 2.4
72 Francis Martes Astros 4.4 #N/A
73 Harold Ramirez Pirates 4.4 0.3
74 Jacob Faria Rays 4.4 0.7
75 Ariel Jurado Rangers 4.4 #N/A
76 Tyler White Astros 4.3 1.0
77 Willie Calhoun Dodgers 4.3 #N/A
78 Franmil Reyes Padres 4.3 1.2
79 Dylan Cozens Phillies 4.2 0.2
80 Miguel Almonte Royals 4.2 0.9
81 Kevin Padlo Rockies 4.1 #N/A
82 Nick Gordon Twins 4.1 0.6
83 Jack Flaherty Cardinals 4.1 #N/A
84 Jake Thompson Phillies 4.1 2.6
85 Rowdy Tellez Blue Jays 4.0 1.1
86 Steven Matz Mets 4.0 1.4
87 Carson Kelly Cardinals 4.0 3.7
88 Francelis MontasWhite Sox 4.0 1.7
89 Jorge Polanco Twins 4.0 1.7
90 Justus Sheffield Indians 3.9 #N/A
91 Victor Reyes D-backs 3.9 0.0
92 Robert Stephenson Reds 3.9 1.1
93 Spencer Adams White Sox 3.9 #N/A
94 Cheslor Cuthbert Royals 3.9 3.1
95 Ryan Castellani Rockies 3.8 #N/A
96 Ronald Torreyes Dodgers 3.8 4.9
97 Zach Lee Dodgers 3.8 1.0
98 Joey Rickard Rays 3.8 0.0
99 Malquin Canelo Phillies 3.7 0.1
100 Brent Honeywell Rays 3.7 #N/A
各位快來看看你家農作物有沒有上吧
某兩隊的球迷可能會發現沒有半個人在榜上，沒關心，貼心的作者說:
And so Marlins and Angels fans don’t feel left out…
Rank Player Team WAR thru 28 2014 WAR thru 28
141 Tomas Telis Marlins 2.9 4.0
175 Tyler Deloach Angels 2.5 1.0
最後你還有一點興趣的話，可以參考他WAR值的Future Value參考:
WAR Threshold Future Value
At least one game in the majors 35
>4 WAR 40
>6 WAR 45
>8 WAR 50
>10 WAR 55
>12 WAR 60
>16 WAR 65
35分就是可以在大聯盟混個一兩場，40分好一點上上下下走馬看花，運氣好
待一季。50分則是平均，50~55分大約可以站穩大聯盟，60分以上就是未來明星球員
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※ 編輯: iamyamashi (122.116.57.204), 12/02/2015 01:19:21
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