[討論] 300K卓越天才終於出現了?而且還是兩個
已經12年未見到300K了
今年可能會有人完成這個壯舉
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第一個是公務員Kershaw
(借用Rambo大格式)
Kershaw(LAD) 8IP 3H 1BB 14K 1ER(1HR) ERA 2.24 11W 6L
感謝老大熱情贊助,Kershaw投了一場14K的比賽
300K魔術數字降到m64
看看espn的pace
Projected 33GS 236.0IP 171H 66R 59ER 17HR 42BB 301SO 0.90WHIP 2.24ERA
因為espn的預估數據只是簡單的乘法,所以我們實際來看一下Kershaw剩餘的先發場次
按照投一休四的節奏
Wed, Sep 2 vs San Francisco 10:10 PM
Mon, Sep 7 @ LA Angels 9:05 PM
Sun, Sep13 @ Arizona 4:10 PM
Sat, Sep18 vs Pittsburgh 9:10 PM
Thu, Sep24 vs Arizona 3:10 PM
Tue, Sep29 @ San Francisco 10:15 PM
Sun, Oct 4 vs San Diego 3:10 PM
可能還有7場先發
目前Kershaw的K/9是11.5,平均可以投7.1局,這樣下去超過300K是可以預期的(一場9K up)
Kershaw的隱憂是接下來的對手實力不錯,
今年先前主投這幾隊8場先發只有一場突破10K,
此外響尾蛇同學一直對Kershaw都很有辦法,
但如果Kershaw能遇到Castillo(卡四揮),Tomas(桶三揮),Owings,Ahmed,Goldy
這些容易被三振的打者,局數投長還是能得到不錯的成績單,
此外,如果因應季後賽而取消掉最後一場先發的話,難度相對提昇許多.
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第二個是白襪隊的Chris Sale
2015 25GS 171.1IP 140H 64R 61ER 15HR 35BB 229SO 1.02WHIP 3.20ERA
Projected 32GS 218.1IP 179H 82R 78ER 19HR 45BB 292SO 1.02WHIP 3.20ERA
Tue, Sep 1 @ Minnesota 8:10 PM
Sun, Sep 6 @ Kansas City 2:10 PM
Sat, Sep 12 vsMinnesota 7:10 PM
Thu, Sep 17 vsOakland 2:10 PM
Tue, Sep 22 @ Detroit 7:08 PM
Sun, Sep 27 @ NY Yankees 1:05 PM
Sat, Oct 3 vsDetroit 7:10 PM
Chris Sale K/9超過12,但平均一場差不多是6.8局,維持現狀的話其實有點拼
可能要繳出連續好幾場10K+的表現才可以達成,就像五月底六月一樣的streak
Chris Sale本季跟美中三隊有過交手記錄,其中min四場,det,kc各兩場
其中對min有過兩場10K記錄,但也有3局K.O.的狀況
皇家本來就不容易被K,底特律也不是簡單的對手
好消息是Chris Sale近三年對戰洋基跟運動家都有很好的表現
對運動家36局投出36K,對洋基34.1局投出42K
不過洋基常常幹爆強投,所以也有可能翻船就是了
Chris Sale還有一個問題是用球數上的問題
雖然能投110,120,但仍然會出現五局用球數破百而無法續投的狀況
Kershaw相對來說投球內容比較穩定
Chris Sale則是三振的爆發力比較強,而且球隊沒戰績壓力,可以讓放手讓他挑戰記錄
反過來說道奇有戰績壓力,Kershaw也更要表現好一點才行XD
整體來講我覺得穩一點的Kershaw達成率比Sale高一點
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所以,達成300K的卓越天才會出現嗎?
--
AJP 2015 Arizona Diamondbacks 亞利桑那響尾蛇
Inciarte Peralta RDLR Chafin
Ahmed ◇ Owings C.Anderson Hudson
Tomas/Lamb ◇ ◇ Goldschmidt Hellickson Ziegler
◇ Ray Delgado
Castillo Corbin Reed
--
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