[外電] WSH季後預測

看板MLB作者GioGonzalez (G-Gon)時間9年前 (2014/11/08 23:00)推噓9(9推 0噓 12→)

留言21則, 11人參與討論串1/1

對自己家有興趣就找來翻了一下～一個月以前的舊文，有稍微補充了一下。 Complete Offseason Guide, Predictions for the Washington Nationals By Rick Weiner, Featured Columnist Oct 8, 2014 http://ppt.cc/iVWo For the second time in three years, the Washington Nationals can call themselves division champions and nothing more, having been knocked out in the division series once again. It's a disappointing end for a team that looked like one of the favorites to represent the National League in the World Series. Changes are certainly going to be made between now and Opening Day 2015, though to what extent won't be known for at least another few months. What follows is an overview of some of the decisions that the team is going to have to make—and some of the players they may look to in order to bolster the roster. 國民隊季後預測 By Rick Weiner, 10/8 過去三年，WSH拿下兩次分區冠軍，除此之外一無長進，就在前幾天，又在NLDS被巨人擊敗。這是一個令人失望的結果，因為在國聯球隊中，國民看來很有進軍世界大賽的希望。在 2015開幕戰前，WSH勢必要有些改變，但在這幾個月內，會改變到什麼程度，就很難說了。這篇文章會指出WSH在季後必須做的決定。 1.Payroll Breakdown With an Opening Day payroll of more than $136 million—an $18 million jump from 2013—Washington owner Mark Lerner openly admitted that the team was topped out financially. “We’re beyond topped out,” Lerner told Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post shortly after the season began. “Our payroll has skyrocketed to like $140 million. It’s in the papers. I don’t think we can go much further with the revenue streams that we have.” Those revenue streams continue to be negatively impacted by the ongoing litigation between Washington and Baltimore over tens of millions of dollars in television rights fees from MASN (Mid-Atlantic Sports Network) that currently go to the Orioles. The question is, will he sign off on spending more—in the $150 million to $160 million range—to help get his club over the hump and into the National League Championship Series without a resolution to the team's ongoing legal issues? Washington has a number of key players due significant raises through the arbitration process, and working out long-term deals with some of its young talent is surely going to be something that general manager Mike Rizzo would like to explore. Without any real indication as to whether ownership has softened its stance on the payroll, it's tough to predict exactly what the Nationals are going to do. But we'll give it a shot anyway. 1.Payroll爆表 2014WSH的payroll是136M，比2013多了18M。WSH老闆Mark Lerner公開承認球隊payroll已然爆棚。「我們爆棚啦」，Lerner在2014開季後不久對華盛頓郵報的Kilgore說，「我們的payroll暴衝到接近140M，這還只是帳面上的，我不覺得我們能賺這麼多啊。」球隊的收益受到日前WSH跟BAL的MASN幾十M的電視權利金訴訟的負面衝擊，訴訟目前倒向BAL 。（譯按：8月，紐約州最高法院駁回MLB仲裁小組的結論，認為MASN不需要給WSH錢。）問題來了，Lerner會不會在訴訟還未定案的情況下，花多一點的錢，大概是150~160M，以幫助WSH度過當前難關，殺入NLCS？WSH有一票重要球員會在薪資仲裁中獲得加薪，用長約綁一些年輕大物是GM Mike Rizzo需要面對的課題。目前不知道Lerner揪竟會否鬆綁payroll，因此很難預料WSH會怎麼做，不過我們試試看。 2.Arbitration-Eligible Players Players Headed for Arbitration (2014 salary) ‧LHP Jerry Blevins ($1.675 million) ‧RHP Tyler Clippard ($5.875 million) ‧LHP Ross Detwiler ($3 million) ‧IF Danny Espinosa ($540,850) ‧RHP Doug Fister ($7.2 million) ‧IF/OF Kevin Frandsen ($900,000) ‧C Jose Lobaton ($950,000) ‧RHP Ross Ohlendorf ($1.25 million) ‧C Wilson Ramos ($2.095 million) ‧RHP Craig Stammen ($1.375 million) ‧RHP Drew Storen ($3.45 million) ‧RHP Stephen Strasburg ($3.975 million) Ideally, the Nationals would be able to lock both Doug Fister and Stephen Strasburg up to long-term deals. But both are likely to be seeking more than $100 million, making such a scenario extremely unlikely. Another one-year deal for each awaits, with Fister coming in around $10 million and Strasburg in the $7 million to $8 million range. Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen are quickly becoming an expensive bullpen pair, but can the Nationals really afford not to keep either one after Rafael Soriano's second-half implosion? The answer, of course, is no, and both will be back, despite Storen's shaky postseason performance. Clippard will be pulling in close to $7 million, with Storen in the neighborhood of $5 million. While Wilson Ramos has never become the offensive force that he was touted as, he's been a steadying force behind the plate for one of baseball's most talented pitching staffs—when he plays. It's been three years since Ramos was on the field for more than 90 regular-season games, making a long-term deal for the 27-year-old backstop a bit of a risk. A one-year deal around $4 million sounds about right. Danny Espinosa had another disappointing season, but he remains relatively affordable with a salary around $1 million. Teams are sure to call and check on his availability over the winter, but with a mediocre crop of second basemen available as free agents, Espinosa could factor into Washington’s plans at the position in 2015. 2. 薪資仲裁以上是能夠提出薪資仲裁的球員。理想上來說，WSH能夠用長約綁住Fister與Strasburg。但他們兩個都尋求超過100M的長約，讓目前的局面看起來不太可能成真。可能兩個都先加薪一年，Fister 10M，小史7-8M。 Clippard與Storen很快就會變成貴鬆鬆的牛棚投手，但WSH在Soriano下半季核炸後，應該無法承受直接放掉這兩個人的結果。我猜，兩人都會留在陣中，儘管Storen季後賽抖抖的。 Clippard可能會加薪到7M，Storen 5M。儘管捕手Wilson Ramos從沒有變成他自己說的「攻擊砲火」，但他還是國民一票天才洋溢投手的重要伙伴—前提是他能上場，不受傷。Ramos近三年從未出賽超過90場，因此給這個27 歲的擋球網一份長約，有點風險。4M/1yr，合理價碼。 Danny Espinosa今年還是沒長出來，但他1M的薪資，讓CP值還過得去。球隊一定會兜售他，但考量到今年FA的2B非常貧瘠，Espinosa應該還是會在明年WSH的陣中。。 Potential Free Agents ‧2B/SS Asdrubal Cabrera ‧OF Scott Hairston ‧1B Adam LaRoche ($15 million mutual option, $2 million buyout) ‧2B/3B Anthony Rendon (team option*) ‧OF Nate Schierholtz ‧RP Rafael Soriano ($14 million team option) ‧CF Denard Span ($9 million team option) There's a case to be made for the Nationals to re-sign Asdrubal Cabrera to play second base, despite his limited range, but it's an unlikely scenario. There's a team out there willing to bet that it can get Cabrera's bat back on track, and it'll offer more than the Nationals are comfortable with. Adam LaRoche is going to wind up an unfortunate casualty of Ryan Zimmerman's inability to play the hot corner anymore, something that LaRoche recently told Mark Zuckerman of Comcast SportsNet and NatsInsider.com that he's resigned to: “If you had to ask me now, I would assume that I would have to move on, unfortunately.” Despite hitting .259 with an .817 OPS and leading the team in home runs (26) and RBI (92), the Nationals have to find a new home for the injury-prone Zimmerman, and first base is the most logical landing spot. Exercising the option on Anthony Rendon's contract, for whatever the amount may be, is an easy decision for the Nationals. Though in a perfect world, the club would get his signature on a long-term deal as quickly as possible. Bringing back Denard Span on a $9 million option and declining the $14 million option on former closer Rafael Soriano are also easy decisions for GM Mike Rizzo to make. The two veteran outfielders remaining on the list, Scott Hairston and Nate Schierholtz, are both expendable with the emergence of Steven Souza and, to a lesser extent, Michael Taylor. 3. 可能變成FA的球員以上是可能變成FA的球員。重簽守備範圍不大的Asdrubal Cabrera 困難度有點高。一定會有球隊在外面等著要Cabrera 的棒子。 Adam LaRoche即將變成Ryan Zimmerman不能守3B的犧牲品了。最近，LaRoche這樣告訴CSN記者Mark Zuckerman說，「你若現在問我的話，我覺得我需要向前看了（指轉隊）。」（譯按：果不其然，10月底，WSH付出2M的買斷金，放生了LaRoche。）儘管LaRoche今年打出.259打率、.817 OPS與領先全隊的26發HR、92分RBI，但WSH需要為因傷不能守3B的Zimmerman找新位置，1B就是最適合的位置。無論金額怎樣，總之撿Anthony Rendon的option就對了！理想狀態下，WSH會盡快和Rendon 簽長約。撿Denard Span明年的9M option、不撿Rafael Soriano明年的14M option也是非常顯而意見的決定啦～（附註：Rendon 2015的option值多少錢，目前並不清楚，但確定是Team option。）兩位外野老將Scott Hairston 與 Nate Schierholtz 將會留在名單中，以應付Souza與（機會比較少的）Taylor。 4. Potential Free-Agent Targets Assuming that Asdrubal Cabrera departs as a free agent, the Nationals are going to be in the market for a new starting second baseman. While there are a handful of veteran options available via free agency, none of them are overly exciting. Still, someone has to play the position, and Danny Espinosa can't do it alone. Expect the Nationals to look to bolster the bullpen in free agency as well, specifically when it comes to adding a second left-handed reliever to complement Matt Thornton. Jerry Blevins was mediocre at best for Washington, and there's little chance the team will bring him back. Here are some of the names the Nationals could be linked to once free agency begins: ‧Emilio Bonifacio, 2B/OF: He's limited offensively, but Bonifacio can hol his own defensively at second base. His base-stealing acumen could be useful toward the bottom of the Nationals lineup. Won't cost an exorbitant amount to sign and has the versatility to play multiple positions. ‧Sean Burnett, LHP: Probably a big stretch here, but Burnett, who has see his career derailed by back-to-back season-ending elbow injuries, did have his best years in Washington (a 2.81 ERA from 2009-12). A huge risk, but on an incentive-laden deal, could reap huge rewards. ‧Andrew Miller, LHP: Miller will be costly—something around thethree-yea $16.5 million deal that Boone Logan got from Colorado—but he's the best left-handed reliever, and arguably the best middle reliever, available. Andrew Miller, LHP:Miller可能很貴，要價大概跟Boone Logan與COL簽的16.5M/3y差不多。但他是最好的LHP之一，也大概是最好的中段RP之一。 ‧Ramon Santiago, 2B/SS: Santiago doesn't hit for average—a lifetime .227 hitter—but he showed an uncanny knack for getting on base with Cincinnati in 2014 (.343 on-base percentage) and plays above-average defense at second and short. 4.可能交易的名單假設Cabrera成為FA，WSH必須要在FA撈一個2B回家。儘管FA市場有滿手2B老將可以選，但沒一個值得期待的。話雖如此，還是得簽一個啦，Espinosa無法一人負荷。看WSH補充牛棚也差不多，尤其WSH必須填補Matt Thorton離隊後，第二個左手牛的洞。 Jerry Blevins是個不太好的選擇啦，但WSH仍有一點點機會留下他。以下這些是WSH可能在FA市場開打後接觸的人： Emilio Bonifacio, 2B/OF：進攻不佳，但足以靠著守備佔著2B。盜壘技巧也能夠在後段棒次中派上用場。經濟實惠又多重守位，不簽嗎？ Sean Burnett, LHP：這個選擇滿困難的。儘管他曾連續兩年因手肘傷勢而整季報銷，但他生涯表現最好時期都在WSH（09-12年，ERA 2.81）風險很高，但若激勵條款的方式，也許可以期待有高回報。 Andrew Miller, LHP:Miller可能很貴，要價大概跟Boone Logan與COL簽的16.5M/3y差不多。但他是最好的LHP之一，也大概是最好的中段RP之一。 Ramon Santiago, 2B/SS: 打擊不到平均水準，生涯平均打率只有.227，但他2014在CIN陣中，有不可思議的.343上壘率。並且SS與2B的守備水準都在平均之上。 It's easier for any team to improve itself via free agency than by trades for one simple reason: You need someone else to trade with. Yet Washington GM Mike Rizzo isn't afraid to make a deal when one needs to be made. You can be sure he'll be working the phones this winter, especially when it comes to finding a solution at second base. You saw some of the names on the free-agent market. It's ugly out there. Now keep in mind, there's no indication that any of the players listed below are readily available...yet. But once the playoffs are over and the offseason kicks into high gear, they could be. ‧Didi Gregorius, 2B/SS, Arizona Diamondbacks: He had a rough 2014 campaig the plate and in the field, but the 24-year-old is widely regarded as a superb defender at shortstop, someone who should be able to handle second base. Questions about his bat remain, however. ‧Jose Ramirez, 2B/SS, Cleveland Indians: Top prospect Francisco Lindor wi take over as the team's everyday shortstop, while Jason Kipnis is entrenched at second base, leaving Ramirez a man without a position. He's held his own at the plate (.262 BA, 85 wRC+) and offers above-average defense at both middle infield positions. ‧Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays: Zobrist enters the final year of his contract with the Rays, and like nearly every All-Star-caliber player who has called Tampa Bay home, he's going to be too expensive for the Rays to keep past this season. He's got some pop in his bat, can play second and either of the corner outfield spots and knows how to get on base consistently. Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs; all payroll and salary information courtesy of Cot's Contracts. Want to talk Nationals' offseason plans or anything baseball related? Hit me up on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR 要增強球隊的話，簽FA比交易容易多了，因為你必須要有人跟你交易才行。Rizzo並不怕進行交易，這個冬天他一定會打不少電話詢問交易，尤其是2壘的洞。但…你也看到了，FA沒啥好2B給你選。以下是可能的交易名單： Didi Gregorius, 2B/SS(ARI)：2014年，他表現還有點粗糙，包括打擊跟守備。但大家都覺得他SS守備可以長得很好，他也可以守二壘。問題點在他的打擊。 Jose Ramirez, 2B/SS（CLE）：潛力新秀Lindor會站穩SS，Kipnis會守2B，Ramirez被擠出來了。他的打擊還OK，.262打率、85 wRC+，SS與2B守備都在標準之上。 Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF（TB）：明年是Zoby合約的最後一年，就如同TB出產的其它明星球員一樣，TB沒錢，無法續簽，哈哈。Zoby打擊表現不錯，上壘能力滿好的，可以守2B，也可以守角落外野。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 36.228.226.121 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1415458819.A.A35.html

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