[外電] MLB and Rangers Home Runs in 2013

看板MLB作者JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)時間11年前 (2014/05/23 10:52)推噓4(4推 0噓 0→)

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話說這篇是篇舊文一般來說依印象老虎主場是偏投手阿靈頓則是打者天堂這篇會給你不一樣的想法不打算全部翻(文有點長XDDD) 也就摘錄部份文章需要看全文者請至連結 MLB and Texas Rangers Home Runs in 2013 http://tinyurl.com/pewpobv 11/10/2013 By Peter Ellwood MLB Average For starters, here are the average results by year for every home run hit in baseball going back to 2010: Year Speed of Bat Avg TRUE Dist. Avg HR 2010 103.3 396.6 4652 2011 103.5 396.5 4633 2012 103.5 398.3 4984 2013 103.3 396.6 4710 As you can see, the speed of home runs hit has not changed much over the years, fluctuating between 103.3 and 103.5 MPH. Distance has been fairly consistent as well, except for the jump in 2012 to 398.3 feet. So that tells us what an average home run is: 103.4 MPH off the bat and 397 feet. 從2010年至今蒐集的資料顯示出球初速沒有太大的改變距離也是如此除了2012年增至398.3呎之外聯盟平均的HR為初速103.4mph 距離397呎 Texas Rangers Hitters For curiosities’ sake, we can also look at this data from the hitter’s perspective, as well. Below are the home runs hit by Rangers hitters in 2013, sorted first by speed off the bat, and then by true distance: 以下是條子打者2013年初速以及距離排名 TEX hitters by speed off bat Rank Hitters Speed of Bat Avg TRUE Dist. Avg HR 1 D.Murphy 105.4 408.1 13 2 L.Berkman 104.9 395.7 6 3 N.Cruz 104.5 408.3 27 4 A.Rosales 104.1 412.0 1 5 M.Moreland 103.7 397.9 23 6 C.Gentry 103.1 409.5 2 7 A.Beltre 103.1 397.9 30 8 J.Baker 103.0 398.2 11 9 L.Martin 102.8 387.4 8 10 A.Rios 102.7 399.2 6 11 A J.Pierzynski 102.5 395.3 17 12 G.Soto 102.5 388.9 9 13 I.Kinsler 100.7 376.1 12 14 J.Profar 100.3 380.2 6 15 E.Andrus 100.1 373.3 4 TEX hitters by Dist. Rank Hitters Speed of Bat Avg TRUE Dist. Avg HR 1 A.Rosales 104.1 412.0 1 2 C.Gentry 103.1 409.5 2 3 N.Cruz 104.5 408.3 27 4 D.Murphy 105.4 408.1 13 5 A.Rios 102.7 399.2 6 6 J.Baker 103.0 398.2 11 7 M.Moreland 103.7 397.9 23 8 A.Beltre 103.1 397.9 30 9 L.Berkman 104.9 395.7 6 10 A J.Pierzynski 102.5 395.3 17 11 G.Soto 102.5 388.9 9 12 L.Martin 102.8 387.4 8 13 J.Profar 100.3 380.2 6 14 I.Kinsler 100.7 376.1 12 15 E.Andrus 100.1 373.3 4 The first surprise here to me is that David Murphy’s 13 home runs averaged the fastest off the bat. Given the backspin he produces with his swing, I wouldn’t expect his contact to be so solid as to produce a high velocity shot. Of no surprise is that Elvis Andrus sits at the bottom of both lists. While his second half “power surge” was a welcome sight to see, this may suggest that we shouldn’t expect it to continue. Right next to Andrus is Ian Kinsler, which is of more concern. This may be a product of Kinsler’s upper cut swing, and his low rate of line drive home runs. But for a player the Rangers count on to help produce the power on the team to rank so low in home run speed and distance is unorthodox. The Ballpark in Arlington 阿靈頓球場 With so much data to analyze, it can be difficult to know what direction to dig. So I did what any good person of the internet would do, and crowdsourced. Upon asking my followers on Twitter what questions I could attempt to answer for them, the most common response was regarding the Ballpark in Arlington’s performance as a home run park in 2013. 有太多數據很難直接去挑選其中之一我從網路跟推特搜集想法得到最多的迴響是直接看阿靈頓這球場在2013是否仍是個HR天堂 From the eye test, the usual jetstream in Arlington disappeared in 2013. What did the data say? 直接觀察到的是阿靈頓的靈氣(jetstream 噴射氣流)在2013消失了那數據怎麼說呢? Ballpark Speed of Bat Avg TRUE Dist. Avg HR Arlington 2010 105.1 406.0 193 2011 104.9 405.6 252 2012 104.9 406.2 201 2013 104.0 401.1 159 That’s pretty clear. From 2010-2012, the results of all home runs hit in the Ballpark in Arlington are nearly identical. Then, in 2013, it looks like a different ballpark, with both speed off the bat and distance dropping about 1%. 很明顯的數據說明一切從2010-2012數據都很穩定接著2013就像是個不同的球場初速跟距離都下滑1% Obviously, the key isn’t that home run distance fell by five feet in 2013 at the Ballpark, it’s that we can project this assumption to speculate that all fly balls were about 1% shorter in 2013. Thus, a lot of warning track outs in 2013 would have flown over the fence in previous years, as we can see by the lower home run totals. 重點不是HR距離下滑了1%，而是我們假設所有的飛球飛行距離都下滑1% 看看下降的HR數字可能很多在warning track被接殺的飛球在往年都飛出了場外 But wait, you say, the Rangers lost Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, of course the numbers would go down. To see if that is really the driving factor, we can look at the same data, but split it based on home runs hit by Texas players and non-Texas players. Below you will see Texas players on the left, and Texas opponents on the right: 但是等等你可能會說條子損失了Hamilton跟Napoli兩位重砲 HR下滑是理所當然的為了說明這說法是否為真我們使用相同數據但是區分條子打者(左邊)跟對手打者(右邊) HR by Rangers hitters HR by Rangers Opponents Yr Speed of Bat Avg TRUE Dist.AVG HR Speed of Bat Avg TRUE Dist.AVG HR 2010 105.6 408.2 102 104.4 403.5 91 2011 105.2 406.5 136 104.6 404.4 116 2012 105.0 406.4 108 104.9 406.0 93 2013 103.7 401.5 85 104.3 400.6 74 As you can see, both sides of the battle were equally affected by the loss of the jetstream in Arlington in 2013. 很明顯得可以看出來不管是條子還是來訪的對手初速跟距離都顯著的下降了 Last offseason, the Rangers made construction changes to the area behind home plate to modify the Cuervo Club, now the Capital One Club. In this Fox Sports article on the Ballpark changes, it was speculated that the changes, which were intended to better circulate air in the Ballpark, may reduce the jetstream but “How the construction will impact the jetstream won't be known until games are played.” Well, now the games have been played and it seems obvious that we can call the jetstream dead. In physics terms, the jetstream is a wind and drag coefficient modifier that has now been more controlled. 2012季末條子將本壘後方的Cuervo Club做了調整看來靈氣已經死亡了 Rest in peace, jetstream, giver of cheap Michael Young home runs for so many years. 感謝您靈氣替Michael Young這些年來製造了不少剛過牆的HR 額外補充: 2013前球場圖片 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/fantasy/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/old-ballpark.jpg