[外電] MVP Debate: We Did This Two Years Ago

看板MLB作者 (Jake McGee)時間13年前 (2012/09/25 11:06), 編輯推噓23(27推 4噓 18→)
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AL MVP Debate: We Did This Two Years Ago http://ppt.cc/DoV5 by Dave Cameron - September 21, 2012 While I wrote most of what I had to say about the AL MVP discussion a few days ago, I do have one more question I want to ask – what’s so different about Cabrera this season compared to 2010? 當我前幾天寫了AL MVP的文章 我想到一個問題 今年跟2010年的MVP競爭有什麼不同? Most of the case for Cabrera’s candidacy rests upon the idea that he’s having an historic offensive performance, and that denying him the award would be some kind of historical injustice. But, if we look at his 2012 season and his 2010 season side by side, can we really make the case that this year is all that different from what he did two years ago? 大部分支持胖卡布的人說的理由是他有著史詩般的成績 如果不給他MVP獎項 是某種歷史上的不公平 但是 如果我們看他2012年跟2010年的成績 我們真的能說他這兩年有什麼不同? (譯按:難道穩定也是種錯誤T_T) Because he has almost identical amounts of plate appearances between the two seasons, it’s easy enough to just compare raw totals side by side, so we’ll start there. 因為他現在幾乎跟兩年前的打數一樣 直接比較變得相當容易 Season PA 1B 2B 3B HR BB GDP 2010 648 96 45 1 38 89 17 2012 646 112 38 0 41 63 28 Cabrera has 16 more singles and three more home runs, but he has eight fewer non-HR extra base hits, so the overall net in total bases is just +11. In other words, while his batting average is slightly higher, he’s actually hitting for slightly less power this year than he did two years ago, which you can see in his seasonal rate statistics. 胖卡布多16隻1B 3隻HR 但是就扣除HR的長打來說 他還少了8隻 所以壘打數來說只增加了11 換句話說 雖然他打擊率增加了 但是他也比2年前降低了一些長打力 Season AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ 2010 0.328 0.420 0.622 0.429 169 2012 0.333 0.398 0.613 0.421 169 A five point increase in average and a nine point decrease in slugging are, for all intents and purposes, a tie. There’s no real meaningful difference in those numbers. The one area where there is a meaningful change is in his walk rate, as Cabrera has drawn 26 fewer walks this year than he did in 2010, which is the main driver of his 22 point drop in OBP. However, that’s swallowed up almost entirely by the change in offensive run environments over the last two years. 打擊率增加0.005 長打率降低0.009 其他的其實差不了太多 只有一個地方是有明顯的改變 "保送" 胖卡布目前比2010年少了26次保送 OBP下降0.022 And, just so you don’t think we’re obscuring the issue by only looking at “ sabermetric” stats like walks, doubles, and double plays grounded into, here ’s a comparison based on his “run production” stats. 然後不讓你認為我們在模糊焦點 只是在看sabermetric的數據(BB,2B,GIDP....) 我們直接看打點的產量 Season Runs RBI 2010 111 126 2012 102 130 In reality, Cabrera’s 2010 and 2012 offensive performances are almost exactly equal no matter what kinds of metrics you use. In terms of something more accurate like batting runs above average, Cabrera was at +54.9 in 2010 and is at +54.3 this year. Even if you want to evaluate his performance strictly by RBIs, there is essentially no difference between this year and two years ago. 2010年跟2012年的成績幾乎相差不少 不管你用什麼樣的標準來評估 如果用batting runs above average(BRAA) 2010年是+54.9 2012年是+54.3 And yet, in that race, Cabrera finished a distant second in the MVP voting behind Josh Hamilton. Hamilton, a center fielder who also had a tremendous season, received 22 of the 28 first place votes that year despite the fact that he only played in 133 games — 17 fewer than Cabrera — and had inferior home run and RBI totals to Cabrera. However, voters decided that Hamilton’s superior defensive value outweighed the extra quantity of playing time for Cabrera, and gave him the award in a vote that wasn’t even close. And I don’ t recall much in the way of controversy surrounding that pick, as Hamilton was pretty clearly the AL’s best player that year. 2010年胖卡布在MVP競賽中輸給了Josh Hamilton(在28個選票中獲得22張第一) 雖然Josh Hamilton只出賽了133場(比胖卡布少17場) 然而投票者最後選擇Josh Hamilton(他有非常棒的守備) 我其實不太記得當初爭議的點 但是Josh Hamilton的確是那年美聯最佳的球員 In reality, the only real differences between the 2010 and 2012 races are Cabrera’s change in position — which WAR gives him credit for, by the way — and the relative win-loss records of the teams on which the contenders play for. Cabrera’s case might be billed as being about his amazing offensive performance, but he had this same offensive performance in 2010, and there wasn’t a strong push to give him the award then. A case for Cabrera as MVP this year, but not two years ago, essentially rests on one of these three arguments: 事實上2010跟2012的競賽 只有"兩點"差異 1.胖卡布換守備位置(WAR在守備位置上有給他補償) 2.老虎球隊的勝敗紀錄 他的確有非常棒的表現 但幾乎跟2010年差不多 2010年他沒得到MVP 如果他今年拿下MVP而不是兩年前 基本上應該是這三個論點之一 1. Cabrera’s defensive value has dramatically increased due to his move to third base, such that an equivalent offensive performance is now worthy of a first place vote. 因為胖卡布移防3B 讓他防守的價值急速上升 如此同等的進攻是值得投票員投給他MVP的 2. Cabrera’s individual value has dramatically increased because the Tigers have a .530 winning percentage as a team this year, as opposed to the .500 winning percentage they had in 2010. 胖卡布個人價值上升是因為讓老虎有.530的勝率 而不是兩年前的.500 3. Trout’s 2012 season has been less valuable than Hamilton’s 2010 season, so while Cabrera was beat out by a stronger contender two years ago, that kind of candidate doesn’t exist this year. Trout今年的表現比2010年Hamilton的表現還差 所以胖卡布可以擊敗Trout You can’t make a case for Cabrera over Trout without leaning heavily on several of those as foundational beliefs. 如果不是這三項基本的訴求 胖卡布不可能擊敗Trout There’s actually some evidence supporting point #1, as Cabrera’s total fielding rating compared to league average (UZR + Positional Adjustment) this year is just -8.1 compared to the -17.5 he put up in 2010, so WAR is giving him credit for an additional win of value with the glove because of the move to third base and how he’s played there this year. So, that’s an argument that actually has some teeth, but the problem is that you can’t simultaneously lean on that piece of data as a pillar of your argument while dismissing Trout’s value because of the unstable nature of single year defensive performance. If you go with argument #1 as a pillar of Cabrera’s foundation, you’re essentially also locking yourself out of #3, because any consideration of defensive value will elevate Trout’s 2012 season over Hamilton’s 2010. Point #1 and Point #3 are essentially mutually exclusive – you can’t argue both at the same time. 如果是以第一點來說 根據UZR+ 胖卡布2010年是-17.5 今年則是-8.1 所以WAR已經調高他的價值 但是如果胖卡布已經調高價值 那你不得不看Trout的防守成績 而如果你採論點一 那麼論點三也是死路 因為任何的防守數據加上 都會讓Trout的2012球季比Hamilton的2010還要有價值 那麼論點一跟論點三都無用了~~ And point #2 is just kind of silly. The Tigers are on pace to finish with 86 wins and miss the playoffs, so it’s hard to see how that’s drastically better than the 81 wins and no playoffs that they achieved two years ago, especially considering that it’s easier to make the playoffs this year due to the addition of the second wild card. In both 2010 and 2012, the Tigers have the eighth best record in the American League. Basing his MVP case on team performance just doesn’t really hold up to scrutiny. 關於論點二就有點.... 老虎這季正朝向86勝邁進 也可能不會進季後賽 很難看出跟兩年前有什麼樣的不同 何況今年有兩個外卡的機會 進季後賽比較容易一點 老虎大概在美聯排名第8名 如果MVP是根據隊伍表現 那麼也不太會是他的 Again, as Paul said in his piece a few hours ago, none of this is meant to disparage Miguel Cabrera. Winning the Triple Crown would be a pretty neat historical accomplishment, and the fact that Cabrera has had so many seasons at this level speaks to his amazing consistency. The unfortunate reality for him, however, is that Josh Hamilton was clearly better in 2010, and Mike Trout has been clearly better in 2012. Two years ago, Cabrera had this exact same season, and everyone agreed that the guy doing it in center field was more valuable. There’s no reason to change our minds two years later. 然而這些說法並不是貶低胖卡布 贏得三冠王是歷史上偉大的成就 而且他已經有數個球季是有如此穩定的產出 但事實是2010年Hamilton比他好 而2012年Trout比他也好 兩年之後胖卡布打出幾乎相同的怪物成績 但大家似乎同意如果是中外野手有這樣的表現是更有價值的 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.25.232.131 ※ 編輯: JakeMcGee 來自: 114.25.232.131 (09/25 11:09)
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09/25 11:09, , 1F
守三壘臭了嗎Q___Q
09/25 11:09, 1F
噓
09/25 11:09, , 2F
大家????
09/25 11:09, 2F
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09/25 11:11, , 3F
真多引導輿論的文章....有這麼怕人家不投給Trout?
09/25 11:11, 3F
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09/25 11:14, , 4F
鍵盤投票
09/25 11:14, 4F
我只是看到文章翻譯 沒什麼引導投票 我也沒能力 不如各位找文章翻譯給大家看 讓大家多吸收知識 ※ 編輯: JakeMcGee 來自: 114.25.232.131 (09/25 11:16)
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09/25 11:15, , 5F
應該是 Trout 的票告急了.....
09/25 11:15, 5F
噓
09/25 11:17, , 6F
everyone agreed .... 他當底特律沒人喔
09/25 11:17, 6F
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09/25 11:18, , 7F
跟前面那些言論相比，這篇比較有說服力
09/25 11:18, 7F
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09/25 11:19, , 8F
去當永遠的第二名吧...
09/25 11:19, 8F
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09/25 11:20, , 9F
要怪..就怪你是胖卡布...不是瘦卡布
09/25 11:20, 9F
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09/25 11:20, , 10F
明年減個肥 多盜幾次壘 就輪到你了
09/25 11:20, 10F
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09/25 11:20, , 11F
樓上這是什麼論點= =
09/25 11:20, 11F
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09/25 11:20, , 12F
Wall Street Journal今天也有一篇聲援Trout的文章XD
09/25 11:20, 12F
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09/25 11:21, , 13F
不能讓兩年前投票的人被打臉，所以只好委屈米糕了
09/25 11:21, 13F
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09/25 11:21, , 14F
選舉這玩意兒，媒體選邊站很正常的
09/25 11:21, 14F
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09/25 11:21, , 15F
Latino is not white, that's all
09/25 11:21, 15F
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09/25 11:22, , 16F
那年紅襪的MVP之爭...也不是光頭拿MVP
09/25 11:22, 16F
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09/25 11:23, , 17F
就足以證明單比打擊就想拿MVP 是不可能的
09/25 11:23, 17F
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09/25 11:23, , 18F
馬上就有人示範了何謂完美的種族歧視
09/25 11:23, 18F
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09/25 11:23, , 19F
更何況進攻表現偏偏沒差太多
09/25 11:23, 19F
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09/25 11:25, , 20F
人家不知道接了幾球過全壘打的球呢!
09/25 11:25, 20F
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09/25 11:34, , 21F
Dave Cameron 最近拉票拉很兇
09/25 11:34, 21F
噓
09/25 11:38, , 22F
過一個月就被打臉了拉 胖卡布MVP拿定了
09/25 11:38, 22F
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09/25 11:41, , 23F
我想到之前King不會拿CYA的簽名檔 XD
09/25 11:41, 23F
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09/25 11:43, , 24F
現在各輿論除了檢視兩人之外 還有一個論點就是三冠王仍未定
09/25 11:43, 24F
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09/25 11:45, , 25F
只能說目前風聲對米糕不太有利 就寄望藉時投票者能多愛他點
09/25 11:45, 25F
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09/25 11:46, , 26F
King那年其實跟Trout才是一樣的處境 都是數據上該拿而傳統
09/25 11:46, 26F
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09/25 11:46, , 27F
投票較不傾向的一方
09/25 11:46, 27F
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09/25 11:48, , 28F
胖卡布:MVP給Trout，季後賽我們去打就可以了
09/25 11:48, 28F
噓
09/25 11:57, , 29F
Josh Hamilton(他有非常棒的守備)←←??????
09/25 11:57, 29F
2010年 Josh Hamilton UZR:9.8 UZR/150:13.3 Any Question? 2012年 Mike Trout UZR:13.0 UZR/150:14.9 2012年 Miguel Cabrera UZR:-9.4 UZR/150:-12.0 ※ 編輯: JakeMcGee 來自: 114.25.232.131 (09/25 12:08)
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09/25 12:13, , 30F
胖卡布一怒下季守CF
09/25 12:13, 30F
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09/25 12:22, , 31F
樓上那這樣他應該會先輸在自己的膝蓋
09/25 12:22, 31F
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09/25 12:26, , 32F
如果漢米守備真的不太好 那早就被調去左外野了吧
09/25 12:26, 32F
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09/25 12:27, , 33F
怒守CF好笑XXXD
09/25 12:27, 33F
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09/25 12:55, , 34F
AVG SLG增加跟OBP下降不需要再加%了吧
09/25 12:55, 34F
對耶 感謝: ) ※ 編輯: JakeMcGee 來自: 114.25.232.131 (09/25 13:10)
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09/25 13:16, , 35F
人家只是翻篇文,噓的用意不知道在哪,這篇也不是沒內容
09/25 13:16, 35F
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09/25 13:22, , 36F
怒守CF ~XDDDD 米糕以前守過外野,應該可以勝任 (大誤
09/25 13:22, 36F
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09/25 13:23, , 37F
以前米糕瘦的咧
09/25 13:23, 37F
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09/25 13:25, , 38F
噓的用意就是未審先判MVP是米糕阿
09/25 13:25, 38F
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09/25 13:58, , 39F
卡布守CF的話Verlander跟Max的三振率可望再次上升
09/25 13:58, 39F
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09/25 14:11, , 40F
怒守SS,價值突破天際XD
09/25 14:11, 40F
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09/25 14:16, , 41F
看看A-Rod的價值 NYY把SS拉去守3B......
09/25 14:16, 41F
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09/25 14:24, , 42F
米糕：我接下來都守游擊
09/25 14:24, 42F
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09/25 14:34, , 43F
事實就是三壘強打的價值比不上中外野強打 雖然三冠王很稀有
09/25 14:34, 43F
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09/25 16:30, , 44F
米糕怒: 明年減肥換守備位置 (誤
09/25 16:30, 44F
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09/25 19:34, , 45F
米糕 LF跟RF都守不好了還想守CF
09/25 19:34, 45F
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09/25 19:56, , 46F
不是三壘強打比不上中外野強打，重點是守得怎樣
09/25 19:56, 46F
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09/25 20:16, , 47F
SS強打 A-Rod表示：
09/25 20:16, 47F
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09/25 20:47, , 48F
這樣比滿扯的
09/25 20:47, 48F
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09/26 21:57, , 49F
結果2012 MVP就是卡布!!
09/26 21:57, 49F
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