[外電] Trout, Cabrera, and Measuring Value

看板MLB作者JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)時間11年前 (2012/09/25 09:50)推噓28(31推 3噓 7→)

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Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, and Measuring Value http://ppt.cc/9VGu by Dave Cameron - September 19, 2012 It’s that time of year again – with just a few weeks left in the season, baseball writers are turning their focus to the postseason awards, and as usual, the MVP races are the ones that are going to get the most attention. In the NL, the conversation is mostly about finding ways to make sure that Ryan Braun doesn’t win his second straight trophy, with Buster Posey stepping up to provide BBWAA members the out that they so desperately want. Over in the AL, there hasn’t been as much discussion for most of the summer, as Mike Trout has been running laps around the rest of the contenders, making it hard to put together any kind of realistic argument for a non-Trout candidate. 又到了決戰的時候一堆棒球作家開始關注季賽獎項而想當然的MVP是最受注目的在NL因為Buster Posey優秀的表現我們大概可以說Ryan Braun不大可能再次獲得MVP 而來看AL 幾乎在整個夏天沒人能跟Mike Trout競爭 However, Miguel Cabrera is having a monstrous September, hitting .373/.426/.797 over the last couple of weeks, and now that he’s taken the lead in both batting average and runs batted, the talk of a potential “ triple crown” has breathed life into his candidacy. Jon Morosi went so far as to call the decision to give Cabrera the award “a formality” and say that it’s “obvious” that Cabrera is the right choice. Instead of engaging in a hyperbole-off, however, let’s actually investigate the actual differences between them this season and see whether the case for Cabrera actually stands up to logic and reason. 然而胖卡布怪物般的9月成績(.373/.426/.797) 他現在在打擊率跟打點領先有機會站上三冠王的頂點 Jon Morosi(FOXSports.com's writer)說胖卡布明顯的是MVP正確的選擇現在讓我們來看看這兩人這季的差別 Thanks to the custom leaderboards, it’s easy to put Trout and Cabrera’s season lines right next to each other for easy comparison. So, let’s just go through and look at the actual differences between what they’ve done this year, starting with their overall performances at the plate in the basic counting statistics. 以下是兩人最簡單的出賽以及相關成績 Plate Appearances: Cabrera, +60 Singles: Cabrera, +2 Doubles: Cabrera, +14 Triples: Trout, +6 Home Runs: Cabrera, +13 Walks + Hit By Pitch: Cabrera, +1 Ground Into Double Plays: Cabrera, +21 Total Bases: Cabrera, +64 Outs Made: Cabrera, +54 Because Trout got called up to the Majors at the end of April, Cabrera has played in 21 additional games, so most of the counting stats go in his favor. And, Morosi has a legitimate point when he talks about number of games played, as we can’t simply ignore the fact that Cabrera has played an additional three weeks worth of games, creating value for his team in the process. 因為Trout在4月底才被叫上來所以比胖卡布少出賽21場所以累積成績當然也的確是胖卡布領先 Morosi提到關鍵的一點就是這三個星期以來胖卡布的精采表現讓老虎繼續保持競爭力 However, that last category is the one that never gets mentioned, but is perhaps the one that speaks the loudest out of all of them. Cabrera’s additional playing time has earned him an additional 60 trips to the plate, but in those 60 extra plate appearances, he’s made 54 extra outs. If we’re going to depend on counting stats to measure the difference in value from a quantity standpoint, we cannot ignore the fact that Cabrera’s propensity for hitting into double plays — he leads the American League with 28 GIDPs — has had a significant negative impact on the Tigers offense. We cannot simply count up the number of additional positive benefits that the Tigers have gotten from Cabrera’s playing time advantage without also accounting for the negatives. 然後最後一個數據是幾乎不會被注意到的(Outs Made) 胖卡布多60打數卻多製造54個出局數他打雙殺打是AL最多(28次) 的確是對老虎的進攻產生負面的影響我們不能只看胖卡布對於球隊有正面的幫助而忽略負面的 Of course, comparing double plays grounded into between a leadoff hitter and a clean-up guy isn’t apples for apples, since Cabrera comes up with men on base far more frequently. Cabrera is first in GIDPs in large part because he’ s second in GIDP opportunities — only Robinson Cano, with 144 chances to hit into a double play this year, has had more GIDP opps — and Cabrera’s 138 GIDP opportunities is nearly double Trout’s 75, which is a natural byproduct of their positions in the batting order. We shouldn’t just hold Cabrera’s extra GIDP outs against him without adjusting for the context of his quantity of chances. 當然比較第一棒跟三番的雙殺次數並不公平胖卡布會有AL第一名的雙殺次數是因為他有第二多的雙殺機會(第一多是Cano的144次) 胖卡布雙殺機會有138次 Trout有75次這跟棒次絕對是有非常大的關係我們不能只單純看胖卡布的雙殺次數而不做些調整 But, of course, that’s exactly what the argument for Cabrera wants you to do with RBIs. Ignore context, ignore opportunity, and just focus on the fact that Cabrera has driven in 52 more runs than Trout has. If you’re going to quote Cabrera’s RBI advantage, you must also quote his massive disadvantage in GIDPs – they are the fruit of the same tree. The more intellectually honest way to measure this value is through looking at both GIDPs and RBIs as a function of plate appearances where those results were made possible by the actions of the people batting in front of both players, but if you’re not going to do that with RBIs, then you have to count the full weight of Cabrera ’s extra outs against him. 但是支持胖卡布的是請叫你看RBI 而忽略內容忽略機會只注意胖卡布比Trout多了52個RBI 如果你想要強調胖卡布的RBI優勢那你就該接受他GIDP次數多的批評因為GIDP跟RBI是同源的(更多RBI機會也有更多GIDP的機會) If you’d rather actually adjust for those opportunity differences, however, we should probably note that Cabrera has had 415 baserunners when he’s batted this year, compared to just 274 for Trout. Cabrera has driven in 52 additional runs while having an extra 141 guys on base because of where he hits in the line-up. If we look at runs driven in as a percentage of total men on base when both men hit, we see that Cabrera has driven in 31% of his total baserunners, while Trout is at 28% – both way above the league average of 15%, and a difference much smaller than raw RBI totals would lead you to believe. 如果要做些調整我們先記得胖卡布打擊時有415個跑者在壘上 Trout則是274個在比Trout多141個跑者的情況下胖卡布多打了52個RBI 如果我們看兩位打者把跑者打回來的機率胖卡布:31% Trout:28% 聯盟平均則是15% 這樣看來兩者的RBI差距也就沒那麼大了 There’s really two choices here – ignore opportunities and give Cabrera credit for driving in many more runs while also penalizing him for creating many more outs, or adjust for opportunity and realize that Cabrera hasn’t actually been that much better than Trout at bringing his teammates home once they get on base. And, of course, none of this accounts for anything that happens after the two of them leave the batters box, or the value of the extra runs that Trout creates with his legs. 有兩個選項 1.忽略跑者的機會讓胖卡布有RBI的絕對優勢但是他也製造更多出局數 2.調整打回跑者的機會然後瞭解胖卡布與Trout的差距沒那麼大然而這不包括Trout離開打擊區製造的價值---他的速度 Left out of the net difference table above were things like stolen bases and other runner advancements, but of course those have value, and even the staunchest Cabrera supporter should admit that Trout should get some credit for the value of his speed. So, let’s look at the net differences in things that have to do with baserunning. Stolen Bases: Trout, +42 Caught Stealing: Trout, +3 Other Outs Made On Base: Cabrera, +2 First to Third on a Single: Trout, +13 Second to Home on a Single: Trout, +5 This is Trout in a landslide, as you’d expect. Not only has Trout put himself in scoring position far more often by stealing second base, he’s also scored more often when his teammates have gotten hits and he’s been on base. The fact that Trout has 18 additional runs scored despite playing in those 21 fewer games shows the magnitude of the difference that baserunning can make, and it’s of course silly to only consider runs created with the bat and ignore those with the legs. Trout has scored 45% of the times he’s been on base — easily the highest of any regular in the AL — compared to a league average of just 31% and Cabrera’s 28% total. Yes, some of that is having Albert Pujols hit behind him, but of course Prince Fielder hits behind Cabrera, mitigating the argument that run scored percentage is solely a function of the guy hitting behind you. Trout完全領先他不只讓自己進佔得點圈他也靠速度得更多分事實上Trout多得18分 Trout這季上壘後有45%機會是會回本壘得分的聯盟平均31% 然後胖卡布28% 當然你可以說是Trout後面有Pujols在支持他但你也要想想Fielder也是在胖卡布後面喔 So, again, we see Cabrera’s offensive advantage dwindling here. We know that his RBI difference is mostly a function of the additional baserunners he’s been given through his line-up spot, while Trout’s runs scored difference is mostly about his speed on the bases. It’s disingenuous to measure one without the other, just like it’s disingenuous to ignore all the extra outs Cabrera has made because of his proclivity for hitting into double plays. 我們再來看看胖卡布的進攻優勢他有更多的RBI是因為有更多壘上有人的機會外加高於聯盟平均的打回跑者能力(31%>15%) Trout得更多分是因為他的速度在這裡我們還忽略胖卡布製造更多的出局數 That’s why, despite Cabrera’s chance at the triple crown, any decent measure of total offensive production will say that Cabrera hasn’t produced any more runs for the Tigers than Trout has for the Angels despite the three week head start. If you just look at Trout and Cabrera’s Batting plus Baserunning in the value section, you’ll note that Trout’s offensive performance has been +57.6 runs better than an average offensive performer this year, while Cabrera checks in at +50.3 runs. 這就是胖卡布為何有機會拿下三冠王(包含這三星期怪物的成績) 卻在進攻上對老虎的貢獻沒有Trout對天使來的有貢獻 And, look, this isn’t voodoo magic that deals with theoretical replacement levels – this is simply the result of adding up all the positive and negative offensive events that both Trout and Cabrera have produced this year. Even with the 21 fewer games played, Trout has produced more runs this season. The only way to come to a different conclusion is to selectively choose the kinds of runs you want to measure. By objective metrics that include all aspects of offensive value, Mike Trout has been a better offensive performer than Cabrera this year. 事實上就進攻上Trout這季也是比胖卡布來的強 If you think that the MVP should be only based on offensive performance with no consideration to defense or position played, then the evidence would lead you to believe that Trout has a narrow edge over Cabrera. Of course, position scarcity and defensive contributions absolutely should be a factor, and both of those point to Trout by laughably large margins, so the only way to make a case for Cabrera is to pretend that we shouldn’t measure those things. And, in actuality, to further that case, we actually have to obscure the truth. 如果你覺得MVP應該頒給進攻上的表現那上面的說明應該可以讓你相信Trout才是MVP Morosi makes the argument that Cabrera deserves credit for his defense because he was willing to make the move to third base to accommodate the acquisition of Prince Fielder. His hard work and selflessness in changing positions should be seen as a net positive in terms of defensive contribution, even if he is objectively bad at playing the position. However, there’s a pretty serious problem with this scenario – Cabrera didn’t have to move to third base for the Tigers to sign Prince Fielder. Instead, he could have simply agreed to become a designated hitter. Instead, Cabrera decided he didn’t want to retire his glove and become a hitter-only, so the Tigers were instead forced to move him to third base, since neither Cabrera nor Fielder was willing to take the DH role at this point in their career. Morosi說因為胖卡布願意移防3B的事情(把原先的1B給Fielder守備)應該要被稱讚他努力與無私的精神在防守上是正面的貢獻(雖然他明顯守的很爛) 但是也要注意一個問題老虎還沒簽Fielder之前他是一直守1B的他也可以變成專職的DH 後來胖卡布決定不要而Fielder也不想所以老虎把他移防3B In reality, Cabrera’s switch to third base made room not for Fielder, but for Delmon Young to spend a majority of his time at DH, which freed up an outfield spot for the likes of Ryan Raburn, Don Kelly, Quinton Berry, and Andy Dirks. Had Cabrera been willing to actually take one for the team and DH, those are the guys who would have lost playing time, not Prince Fielder. Does anyone seriously want to argue that the Tigers are better off because Cabrera decided to become a bad defensive third baseman so that that group could get more playing time? 事實上胖卡布移防3B影響的不是Fielder 而是Delmon Young 他幾乎都打DH 這樣Ryan Raburn, Don Kelly, Quinton Berry和Andy Dirks可以在外野先發有人會說老虎變更好是因為胖卡布移防3B 然後讓上述這些打者能打擊的原因? Look, even here at FanGraphs, we don’t think the MVP award should just be the WAR of the Year award. We’ve said repeatedly that WAR is a useful tool for identifying groups of players who have had similar years, and it takes a precision that WAR is not capable of providing to determine the differences between guys who are within the same overall range of value. The problem with the argument surrounding Trout and Cabrera is that they’re not in the overall same range of value. Mike Trout is a group unto himself this year – a fantastic defensive center fielder who also happens to be the best baserunner in baseball and who has hit nearly as well as anyone else alive. 我們不認為MVP是要頒給WAR最高的球員畢竟MVP不是The WAR of the Year 我們一再說過WAR是有用的工具比較球員有差不多的球季而WAR無法在差不多價值的球員內去判別兩者的差異 You don’t have to buy into WAR as the be-all, end-all statistic to know that Trout has been the AL’s best player by a country mile this year. Simply look at all the facts, and not just the three that were treated as important 100 years ago. Morosi is right about one thing – whether Miguel Cabrera wins the triple crown or not should be irrelevant. The AL MVP is obvious. It’s just not Miguel Cabrera. 你不必一定要買WAR的帳但事實是Trout是今年美聯最佳球員 Morosi只說對了一件事情 "無關胖卡布今年是不是可以拿下三冠王美聯MVP都很明顯" 只是那不會是胖卡布 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.25.232.131

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oiyuz

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