[閒聊] Pitching by the Numbers: Cutting to the chase

看板MLB作者JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)時間14年前 (2011/08/07 17:13)推噓11(11推 0噓 6→)

留言17則, 12人參與討論串1/1

戰太久了看個文章吧XD Pitching by the Numbers: Cutting to the chase By Michael Salfino, http://tinyurl.com/44t22a2 A good way to judge pitchers is by the types of swings hitters put on their pitches. Generally, when hitters chase a pitch out of the strike zone, the swing is off-balance and unthreatening. We see it, but how can we quantify it? The best way is to look at the pitches that hitters chase the most – meaning that they swing even though the offering is graded as a ball. 判斷投手投的好不好其中一個方法就是看打者會不會去追打球當打者追打好球帶以外的球其揮擊都是沒有威脅且失去平衡的那當怎麼去看打者會不會去追打球呢? 最好的辦法就是看哪些球路打者最容易追打 Of course, it’s possible that some offerings are so weak and enticing that hitters will extend the strike zone and swing anyway, like when were kids in front of the garage and a fat wiffleball was just lifelessly hanging in the air waiting to be smacked. We check for that by also including batting average against (BAA) these offerings, but remember that luck can play a huge factor here. 當然也是有可能打者放大他們的好球帶並且揮擊(Vladimir Guerrero:叫我嗎? XD) 所以也把BAA納入考量當然必須記得"運氣"也佔了很大一部份 Similarly, I will stipulate that some pitchers can arguably have offerings so unhittable that hitters do not even bother to swing as soon as they recognize it, choosing to take their chances that the pitch will get called a ball. But very few pitchers have had pitches like this in baseball history. Maybe Sandy Koufax’s curveball if we had the data. Dwight Gooden’s Lord Charles, too. But we can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. So here are the pitchers/pitches (minimum 300 pitches) that hitters chase the most and the least. Fantasy recommendations will follow the charts. Stats courtesy of my friends at Baseball Info Solutions: 規定:至少300球 Most-chased pitchers: Name Team Pitch Number Usage% Chase% BAA Roy Halladay Phi SplitFinger 398 15.7 58 .226 Sergio Mitre Mil/NYY Fastball 394 70.1 55.7 .246 Jeff Gray CWS/Sea Fastball 313 67.7 54.1 .318 David Pauley Sea/Det Fastball 385 53.6 54 .234 Felix Hernandez Sea Changeup 556 20.6 52.4 .145 Mike Adams SD/Tex Slider 423 60.3 50.9 .170 Cole Hamels Phi Changeup 527 22.9 50.5 .117 Cory Luebke SD Slider 370 28.8 50.5 .196 Jaime Garcia StL Slider 395 18.1 50 .168 CC Sabathia NYY Slider 455 17.6 49.6 .157 Zack Greinke Mil Slider 356 20.8 49.4 .148 Brad Ziegler Oak/Ari Fastball 444 73.4 49.3 .312 Jason Marquis Was/Ari Slider 652 34 49.2 .268 Shaun Marcum Mil Changeup 653 30.7 48.5 .223 James Shields TB Changeup 661 27.6 48.3 .164 Justin Verlander Det Changeup 462 16.5 48.3 .202 Carl Pavano Min Changeup 407 18.4 48.1 .240 James Russell ChC Slider 308 36.2 47.9 .209 Livan Hernandez Was Curveball 330 15.2 47.6 .162 Edwin Jackson CWS/StL Fastball 1183 53.7 47.4 .314 Roy Halladay seems to feel that there’s a need to limit his split-finger usage. But 15.7 percent seems too low. Of course, if he ever needs to, he can just choose to neutralize hitters more by featuring the split with greater frequency. Similarly Verlander can increase that changeup usage to 30 percent or so and become a two-pitch pitcher and still be very effective, though perhaps not the best pitcher in baseball as he happens to be right now. Edwin Jackson is such a tease. Generating swings on balls with such frequency on his fastball and STILL yielding a .314 average on that pitch. That makes no sense. But Jackson so consistently profiles as unlucky that it defies the very notion of randomness, which is why I’m past the point of speculating on him. James Shields is the prototype fastball/change pitcher and really it’s the change that is completely responsible for his success. A .164 average allowed on that many pitches is sick. There are no real sleepers here, other than to note that Adams definitely has the stuff and out-pitch needed to succeed as a closer. Least-chased pitchers: Name Team Pitch Number Usage% Chase% BAA Casey Coleman ChC Fastball 485 61.1 8.8 .306 Carlos Marmol ChC Fastball 352 36.5 13.4 .382 Sergio Santos CWS Fastball 389 58.3 15.3 .253 Randy Wolf Mil Curveball 430 18.2 15.5 .196 Jesse Litsch Tor Fastball 495 57.4 15.5 .263 Francisco Liriano Min Fastball 904 50.9 15.5 .279 Trevor Cahill Oak Fastball 1435 59.9 15.6 .275 Mike MacDougal LAD Fastball 443 71.2 16 .271 Miguel Batista StL Fastball 359 73.1 16.1 .221 Chris Perez Cle Fastball 496 79.9 16.3 .231 Freddy Garcia NYY Fastball 646 37.5 16.4 .343 Tyler Chatwood LAA Curveball 320 17 16.5 .247 Clayton Mortensen Col Fastball 535 61.9 16.8 .331 Kyle Davies KC Fastball 572 49.1 16.9 .385 Brad Hand Fla Fastball 415 66.2 16.9 .225 Jeremy Hellickson TB Fastball 1068 55.6 17.5 .245 Tyson Ross Oak Fastball 358 67.3 17.7 .293 Tim Stauffer SD Fastball 1132 50.1 17.9 .244 Luis Perez Tor Fastball 397 73.5 18.3 .290 C.J. Wilson Tex Curveball 327 13.3 18.4 .326 Why does C.J. Wilson throw the curve so much when the results are so poor? Scrap that pitch, son. Trevor Cahill does not have the stuff/repertoire to be an ace, it is clear. Freddie Garcia is unbelievable. Guess who leads the Yankees in quality start percentage? You’d think it’s Sabathia but it’s Garcia at over 70 percent. He’s really de-emphasized the fastball, and obviously for good reason. Marmol and Perez are surprising to me. Obviously, velocity isn’t everything. But has Perez been lucky with that odd .231 average allowed swinging at mostly strikes or does he have a lot of movement in the strike zone? I’d wager it’s the former. His K/BB is poor, too. And Marmol now has had a ratio of over 1.40 in three of his six years. Yet many still keep betting on him. Remember, it’s relatively easy to save a multi-run lead (which about 63 percent of save situations start as). The key is to avoid baserunners and so his WHIP alone should automatically disqualify Marmol from ever again being drafted as an elite closer. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.137.139.182

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