[情報] BP: AL West 2011 Preseason Preview
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12970
by Colin Wyers
Texas Rangers: 84-78 (Projected 2011 record)
Why They Might Win: The 2010 AL champs return with most of their roster
intact -- missing out on a half season of Cliff Lee is probably not much
of an obstacle for them, especially if Brandon Webb is healthy and can
regain his old form. Adding Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli bolsters the
offense and gives them a bit more flexibility to address first base, their
biggest lineup hole last season.
Why They Might Not Win: Despite having reached the World Series last
season, the Rangers are merely a solid, unspectacular team that will need
the breaks to go their way to make it back. (Webb is one of those breaks.)
Ron Washington will need a deft hand to juggle his many lineup options
while keeping his clubhouse happy.
Player Who Could Surprise: Playing for a manager other than Mike Scioscia
could give Napoli an opportunity he hasn't had before. With three
positions (catcher, first base and designated hitter) not set in stone, he
could play his way into the sort of full-time role he never had a chance
to have in L.A.
Player Who Could Disappoint: If Webb's repaired shoulder allows him to
return to his 2006-2008, Cy-Young form (3.13 ERA), the Rangers will have a
steal on their hands. But that seems like a long shot, given his series of
aborted comebacks last year. PECOTA predicts a 3.63 ERA in 173 2/3
innings, but it can't predict the exact state of his arm any better than
the Rangers can.
Oakland Athletics: 82-80 (Projected 2011 record)
Why They Might Win: The A's are bringing back the core of the best
pitching staff in the AL last season and, unlike past A's teams, the
Coliseum wasn't giving them a boost -- it's played as a league-average
park for the past few seasons. The A's can keep a lot of runs off the
board.
Why They Might Not Win: The demise of the Coliseum as a run-killing park
cuts both ways -- the A's simply couldn't score runs last season, and that
was all on the players. They've traded away slap-hitting Rajai Davis and
brought in a lot of outfield pieces to bolster the offense, but now they
have to assemble them into a functional unit.
Player Who Could Surprise: Conor Jackson isn't expected to do much, but he
once was a well-regarded hitter, and there's still a chance that he'll
deliver on some of that promise if he stays healthy enough to play a full
season for a change.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Daric Barton is coming off a great season,
but as a first baseman without a whole lot of pop in his bat he has to
keep his batting average up to continue that level of success. (And he has
to continue drawing lots of walks, despite not being especially
intimidating to pitch to.) PECOTA doesn't see another 2010 coming from
Barton this season.
Los Angeles Angels: 78-84 (Projected 2011 record)
Why They Might Win: Nobody in this division looks like a 90-win team on
paper, so the Angels do have a chance to take the crown if a few breaks go
their way (and a few breaks don't go the way of the Rangers and
Athletics.) In addition, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren give them a strong
case for the best 1-2 rotation punch in the AL.
Why They Might Not Win: The Angels have long had a reputation for
outperforming expectations (as measured by the difference between runs
scored and runs allowed), so there's a case to be made that the team is
able to get more out of their talent than what a model like PECOTA tells
us. But this is one of the least talented Angels teams in recent years --
trading away Napoli for Wells likely hurts more than it helps, although it
does at least give Scioscia a player he's likely to use.
Player Who Could Surprise: Weaver is one of the most underappreciated
pitchers in the American League, although he's starting to get his due. He
could very well pitch his way to a Cy Young award this year.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Vernon Wells, although he's only likely to
disappoint people who have unrealistic expectations to start with. PECOTA
sees him as a slightly above-average hitter, but doesn't think he's got
much left to offer with his glove as a full-time center fielder. Anyone
hoping he can duplicate his 2010 campaign will likely find themselves
disappointed.
Seattle Mariners: 68-94 (Projected 2011 record)
Why They Might Win: As the northernmost team in the AL West, the Mariners
are the most likely to be protected from a catastrophic event wiping out
the American southwest -- flood, drought, nuclear war, zombie apocalypse,
etc. -- provided it occurs when they aren't on a road trip.
Why They Might Not Win: They can't score runs. Brendan Ryan, who came over
from the St. Louis Cardinals, is a useful asset because of his excellent
shortstop glove, but PECOTA sees him putting up only a .235 True Average
(a stat that measures total batting performance, including walks and
power, on the batting average scale). That makes him a good fit on a team
that managed only a .245 True Average last season.
Player Who Could Surprise: Milton Bradley can't stay out of trouble on or
off the field, but PECOTA thinks he could still have something left in his
bat, projecting him for a very respectable .275 True Average.
Player Who Could Disappoint: The Mariners are turning to highly-touted
prospect Justin Smoak at first base. PECOTA sees him improving on his
less-than-glorious rookie season, but not by a whole lot -- a .267 True
Average, while above average in general, is not much to write home about
at first base.
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