[情報] BP: AL Central 2011 Preseason Preview
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12948
by R.J. Anderson
Minnesota Twins: 84-78 (projected 2011 record)
Why they might win: Despite losing more big league players than they added
this offseason, the Twins appear to be the most well-rounded club in the
division with a solid rotation, good lineup and possibly reliable bullpen.
Why they might not win: All rotations are susceptible to injury, but the
Twins might be in particular because theirs includes Francisco Liriano,
Carl Pavano, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, each of whom has been limited
by injuries to varying degrees during the past several seasons.
Player who could surprise: Reliever Anthony Slama appeared in five games
last season and did not see his minor league success carry over. PECOTA is
not allowing the struggle in a small sample size dissuade it from placing
Slama as the Twins' best reliever outside of Joe Nathan by expecting a
3.40 ERA and more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Given the
exodus of Twins relievers this winter, Slama could be tested early and
often in high-leverage situations.
Player who could disappoint: Former top prospect and No. 1 draft pick
Delmon Young experienced his first 20-plus-homer season in 2010 while
hitting .298/.333/.493 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging
percentage). Is he back on the road to superstardom? PECOTA says not so
fast and expects a relapse into the world of ineffectiveness with a
projected slash line of .283/.319/.420. Making matters worse for the Twins
are the comparisons to Josh Barfield, Jorge Cantu and Jeff Francoeur -- a
collection of formerly hyped prospects who have since fallen flat.
Detroit Tigers: 82-80
Why they might win: When everyone's healthy, the lineup is high in name
value, with Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and Victor Martinez. The
rotation features the best one-two punch in the division, and a hard-
throwing bullpen could be stellar.
Why they might not win: A bullpen with Jose Valverde, Joaquin Benoit and
Joel Zumaya could boost the Tigers' chances in close games, but the latter
two could miss significant time without anyone blinking. Despite the
addition of Brad Penny, the back end of the rotation is also a question
mark.
Player who could surprise: Disappointment and injury -- and occasionally
both -- have plagued Penny in the past three seasons, leaving him with an
ERA over 5.00 and an average annual workload under 110 innings. PECOTA
foresees nearly 150 innings with a 4.44 ERA for the 33-year-old. Health is
a skill, which means sometimes it is plagued with good or bad luck.
Player who could disappoint: Outfielder Brennan Boesch is a given; his
rookie season included a half in which he looked like a future Hall of
Famer (.342/.397/.593) followed by one in which he looked like a future
minor leaguer (.163/.237/.222). Fans hoping for a bounce-back to the first
half are out of luck, as Boesch is projected to hit .249/.297/.407.
Chicago White Sox: 80-82
Why they might win: Their lineup could be bonkers -- in a good way. The
addition of Adam Dunn to go with Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin, Alexei
Ramirez and Alex Rios is something to look forward to, even if the
resulting defensive hit is substantial. If things break right, the
rotation could be the best in the division.
Why they might not win: Jake Peavy could miss the start of the season and
seems like a lock for at least one trip to the DL during the season. The
offense also has some question marks, with the catcher position looking
weak and the youth of Gordon Beckham and Brent Morel coming into play.
Player who could surprise: Peavy pitched better last season than his 4.63
ERA gives him credit for. In his past 12 starts, he struck out 71 batters,
walked 13 and had a 3.45 ERA before missing the rest of the season thanks
to a shoulder injury. PECOTA is unaware of his health issues but suggests
he could throw for a 3.24 ERA if his talent level remains unchanged. A
Jason Schmidt comparison is both appropriate and downright terrifying.
Player who could disappoint: Although PECOTA likes Peavy, John Danks and
Gavin Floyd, it dislikes the other vets in the rotation. Mark Buehrle has
a projected ERA of 4.51 (a career worst), and PECOTA remains nonplussed by
Edwin Jackson's rise to acceptability (4.63 ERA).
Cleveland Indians: 72-90
Why they might win: The Indians are built with a few stars surrounded by
league-average players. If Grady Sizemore and Carlos Santana stay healthy,
the team should break the 70-win barrier for the first time since 2008.
Why they might not win: The rotation is full of question marks. PECOTA
expects Justin Masterson's ERA to resemble his stellar peripherals more
this season (4.26) than last (4.70). The problem, though, is the rest of
the rotation, with just two other starters (Fausto Carmona and Josh
Tomlin) projected for ERAs under 4.50.
Player who could surprise: Michael Brantley came over in the CC Sabathia
trade. An athletic center fielder, Brantley features the offensive profile
of a leadoff hitter (a career minor league OBP of .388), and although
PECOTA does not envision a breakout year (.266/.329/.346) from the soon-
to-be 24-year-old, he should provide excitement in the field and on the
basepaths.
Player who could disappoint: Another piece of the Sabathia return, Matt
LaPorta, seems like a lock for this designation. Now 26, the former top
prospect is closing in on 700 plate appearances with an OPS below .700.
PECOTA provides the best- and worst-case scenarios by comparing him to
Ryan Garko and Jeff Clement while projecting a line of .246/.331/.432 and
19 homers.
Kansas City Royals: 70-92
Why they might win: Taking liberties with the definition of win, the
Royals should consider this season a success should their top prospects
remain healthy and contribute.
Why they might not win: Billy Butler and Joakim Soria are good players,
but any team is in trouble when those are its two best talents. The
rotation is full of band-aids, and the outfield might start three former
top prospects now considered busts. The infusion of talented youth
throughout the summer and fall should help, but immediate success is not
guaranteed.
Player who could surprise: Kila Ka'aihue will turn 27 at the end of March
and has hit .224/.314/.398 in 230 big league plate appearances.
Nevertheless, PECOTA loves Ka'aihue's minor league track record and pegs
him for .262/.351/.528 and 25 home runs. His comparables include Joey
Votto and Adrian Gonzalez, two of the best left-handed first basemen in
the majors. The projection proving optimistic and Ka'aihue impressing are
not mutually exclusive happenings.
Player who could disappoint: Wilson Betemit surprised everyone when he hit
.297/.378/.511 in a little more than 300 plate appearances last season.
Expecting a drop-off is no surprise, but forecasting a fall below his
career line is, which is why PECOTA's projected line of .247/.317/.416 is
worth watching.
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02/17 19:12, , 1F
02/17 19:12, 1F