[情報] BP: AL East 2011 Preseason Preview
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12938
by Steven Goldman
Boston Red Sox: 92-70 (projected 2011 record)
Why they might win: A reloaded and presumably healthy offense invigorated
by Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez will get all the attention, but
PECOTA sees the real improvement as being due to a strong starting
rotation aided by a rebound season from Josh Beckett and a deeper bullpen.
Why they might not win: PECOTA expects the Sox to allow 50 fewer runs than
last year, a tall order if Beckett, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka
don't deliver on past performances. "Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Everyday
Catcher" seems a series unlikely to get a full order of episodes, and
between he and reserve Jason Varitek, opponents may once again run wild.
Player who could surprise: He's already an All-Star, but Adrian Gonzalez
could be due for a real breakout in Fenway Park. Petco Park limited his
offensive output when he was with the Padres; he hit .307/.381/.579 in
Padres road games versus just .267/.367/.442 at home. PECOTA foresees
.281/.379/.502 rates and 31 home runs, but that projection might prove to
be too conservative.
Player who could disappoint: Beckett. A return to his 2007 to 2009 form
(3.71 ERA) would make good on PECOTA's overall pitching prediction, but
back injuries tend to recur. If he and his projected 3.95 ERA are on the
shelf for any period of time, the Sox will have to fall back on the aged
Tim Wakefield or Alfredo Aceves, who has back problems of his own.
New York Yankees: 91-71
Why they might win: With the exceptions of Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher,
several Yankees disappointed at the plate last year and yet they still led
the league in runs scored. They should be potent again this year, with
PECOTA calling for them to lead the division in runs scored. The bullpen,
with its Rafael Soriano-to-Mariano Rivera endgame, should be a standout.
Why they might not win: Because the richest team in baseball has Bartolo
Colon, Sergio Mitre and Freddy Garcia competing for rotation spots after
the Yankees learned that money can't buy you happiness -- or Cliff Lee.
Player who could surprise: Curtis Granderson. After a late-season tutoring
session with hitting coach Kevin Long, Granderson started hitting left-
handed pitchers (.286/.375/.500 in a small sample) for the first time in
his career. PECOTA expects Granderson to hit .257/.333/.460, but it
doesn't know about Long's lessons.
Player who could disappoint: Derek Jeter. Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez
still have room to rebound, but Jeter couldn't get the ball off the ground
last year. (His ground ball rate of 65.7 percent was the highest in
baseball.) PECOTA's .281/.350/.389 projection offers faint hope for the
37-year-old shortstop.
Tampa Bay Rays: 84-78
Why they might win: Rays starters had the third-best ERA in the league.
Replacing Matt Garza, whose 15-10 record belied a mediocre season, with
top prospect Jeremy Hellickson should further strengthen the unit. If
James Shields can come back from the 6.09 ERA he put up from June on and
Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis can recover from some late-season, post-injury
doldrums, the Rays could again have a truly outstanding rotation.
Why they might not win: Almost the entirety of last season's bullpen is
gone and the replacements have names like Farnsworth and Peralta. Joe
Maddon is the game's most creative manager, but it would take an act of
sorcery to create a bullpen as good as last year's best-in-AL unit. In
addition, with Carl Crawford having decamped to Boston, Evan Longoria may
feel lonely as the only top-flight hitter in the lineup. According to
PECOTA, the Rays will drop nearly 60 runs of offense and allow more than
60 more.
Player who could surprise: Manny Ramirez looked so weak during his Chicago
sojourn (one home run in 88 plate appearances) that it's easy to forget
that he hit quite well when available to the Dodgers (.311/.405/.510) and
was dealing with a calf injury and a hernia. A Manny resurgence will
depend on if he's engaged, but if Maddon can get and hold his attention,
the bat shouldn't be a problem. A conservative PECOTA calls for him to hit
.269/.380/.462.
Player who could disappoint: Top outfield prospect Desmond Jennings.
PECOTA expects him to hit just five home runs in 395 PAs, not surprising
for a player with his leadoff hitter's skills. But with B.J. Upton hitting
just 29 home runs over the past two seasons, Johnny Damon dropping from 24
to eight last season and Ben Zobrist, who lost 17 home runs between 2009
and 2010, expected to get a lot of swings as the right fielder, the
outfield is going to lack pop.
Baltimore Orioles: 82-80
Why they might win: They'll win if they somehow get furloughed to one of
the Central divisions, where the competition is less intense. Otherwise,
they will have to settle for enjoying the fruits of a vastly improved
offense due to the addition of four veterans to the lineup. Given 13
consecutive losing seasons, a .500 record would be an accomplishment worth
celebrating.
Why they might not win: The vets were available to the O's for a reason:
Vlad Guerrero and Derrek Lee are aging, J.J. Hardy is notoriously
inconsistent and Mark Reynolds is a career .235/.323/.461 hitter outside
of Phoenix who failed to hit .200 last year. PECOTA sees him roughly
duplicating those rates with bad defense. Although the pitching should
continue to improve, particularly if top prospect Zach Britton joins the
staff at some point this season, there won't be enough offense to make a
decisive difference.
Player who could surprise: Hardy. Although the 50 home runs he hit between
2007 and 2008 seem like a long time ago and his overall 2010 numbers were
mediocre, once he got over an injured wrist, he hit .304/.363/.442 in the
second half. He'll be a revelation after two years of Cesar Izturis and
should exceed his PECOTA-projected .261/.319/.414 rates.
Player who could disappoint: Matt Wieters. While fandom still waits for
the soon to be 25-year-old catcher to make good on his terrific minor
league numbers, PECOTA has stopped looking for a breakout, calling for a
.268/.341/.419 season. Names like Ryan Doumit and Ryan Garko are starting
to show up among his comparables, two too many mediocre Ryans for a future
star.
Toronto Blue Jays: 76-86
Why they might win: The young starting rotation and rebuilt bullpen could
defy PECOTA's projection and refuse to add 50 runs to last season's total
under new manager/former pitching coach John Farrell, while Adam Lind and
Travis Snider finally click, allowing the offense to hold its ground.
Why they might not win: Ricky Romero regresses to the 4.75 ERA PECOTA
calls for, Brett Cecil adds half a run to his ERA and Kyle Drabek
(predicted 4.94 ERA in 85 2/3 innings) has a rough transition to the
majors, making the absence of Shaun Marcum more keenly felt. In addition,
Vernon Wells' contract might have been an albatross, but his bat (in even-
numbered seasons) was not; it's a long fall from him to Rajai Davis and
his projected .267/.313/.377 season.
Player who could surprise: Rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia. After a two-home
run debut, the rookie didn't hit in his remaining 10 games, but his power
production is for real and with only a slight improvement on his
projection (.253/.290/.483, 26 home runs in 474 at-bats) he should
approximate or surpass John Buck's production of last year.
Player who could disappoint: Jose Bautista could be the surprise (if he
hits another 50 home runs) or disappointment (if he doesn't). Very few
players have been consistent at the 50-home run level, and Bautista is
more likely a new George Foster or Brady Anderson than a late-career Babe
Ruth. PECOTA isn't aware of the adjusted swing that touched off his homer
barrage, but even so, its prediction of 29 home runs seems entirely
reasonable.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 118.160.69.107
推
02/15 23:02, , 1F
02/15 23:02, 1F
推
02/15 23:05, , 2F
02/15 23:05, 2F
推
02/15 23:06, , 3F
02/15 23:06, 3F
推
02/15 23:07, , 4F
02/15 23:07, 4F
推
02/15 23:21, , 5F
02/15 23:21, 5F
→
02/15 23:22, , 6F
02/15 23:22, 6F
推
02/15 23:27, , 7F
02/15 23:27, 7F
→
02/15 23:31, , 8F
02/15 23:31, 8F
→
02/15 23:36, , 9F
02/15 23:36, 9F
推
02/15 23:43, , 10F
02/15 23:43, 10F
推
02/15 23:44, , 11F
02/15 23:44, 11F
→
02/15 23:45, , 12F
02/15 23:45, 12F
→
02/15 23:46, , 13F
02/15 23:46, 13F
推
02/16 00:24, , 14F
02/16 00:24, 14F
→
02/16 00:31, , 15F
02/16 00:31, 15F
→
02/16 00:32, , 16F
02/16 00:32, 16F
推
02/16 00:59, , 17F
02/16 00:59, 17F
推
02/16 01:29, , 18F
02/16 01:29, 18F
推
02/16 02:15, , 19F
02/16 02:15, 19F
→
02/16 02:59, , 20F
02/16 02:59, 20F
→
02/16 03:01, , 21F
02/16 03:01, 21F
→
02/16 03:02, , 22F
02/16 03:02, 22F
推
02/16 12:53, , 23F
02/16 12:53, 23F
推
02/17 18:53, , 24F
02/17 18:53, 24F