Five questions: St. Louis Cardinals
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-st.-louis-cardinals/
Aah, Spring Training is upon us and teams are sorting out their rosters for
the 2010 season. Coming off a successful 2009 in which they won 91 games and
made the playoffs, the Cardinals look to be in good shape going into this
season. They project to win somewhere between 85 (THT) and 92 games (PECOTA),
and win the division fairly easily over a hodge-podge of mediocre teams.
呃，大聯盟的各球隊已經開始2010年球季的春訓，並試圖找出他們開季時的最佳陣型。接
續上一個成功的球季，紅鳥們本季看來將會繼續保有一個十分棒的隊形。THT和PECOTA分
別預測紅鳥本季將會贏得85和92場比賽，而且將會在一團混亂的平庸分區（國聯中區）
裡，順利的取得分區的王座。
This is a team that features the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols, one
of the most sabermetric un-friendly but somehow still incredibly successful
managers in Tony LaRussa, a strong supporting cast and a history of success.
However, they are by no means a lock to have a good season and there are some
obvious questions surrounding them.
話雖如此，由全聯盟最佳球員Pujols、非錢球派卻十分成功的教練LaRussa再加上一群實
力深厚的選手和優良的傳統所組成的紅鳥隊並不能如此百分之百的肯定他們將會有一個
美好的球季，因為紅鳥隊有一些顯而易見的問題。
Will the supporting cast around Pujols be strong enough?
Pujols可以得到足夠的支援嗎？
I already mentioned this, but Pujols is really, really good. Over the past
three seasons, he's been tied for first in the majors in batting average,
first in on base percentage and first in slugging average. To top that off,
according to UZR, he's been a +8 run defender per 150 games over that span.
No surprise that FanGraphs estimates he's been the most valuable position
player in baseball, totaling 25.6 Wins Above Replacement.
雖然前面已經提過了，但是還是要讚揚一下Pujols是一個多麼棒的球員。過去三年裡，
Pujols擁有並列第一的打擊率和排名第一的上壘率和長打率。防守方面，根據UZR，
Pujols是一個每150場多為球隊守住八分的防守者。比平均水準多贏25.6場比賽的表
現，難怪FanGraphs認為Pujols是最佳的野手。
Despite that incredible production by Pujols, the Cardinals have not had much
success over the past three seasons. They were below .500 in 2007, missed the
playoffs in '08 and were swept out of the first round of the playoffs last
year. Much of that can be attributed to a less-than-stellar supporting cast
around Pujols. So will that trend hold true next year?
儘管Pujols的效率驚人，但是這並沒有反應在紅鳥的戰績上。07年，他們的勝率不滿五
成。08年甚至連季後賽都沒得打。09年第一輪就出局。這些當然可以歸咎於紅鳥打擊上
對Pujols不盡人意的支援，但是問題是今年球季紅鳥打線是否會依然如此？
I don't think so. Yadier Molina has quietly become one of the better players
in baseball. He projects to be an average hitter, according to THT's Oliver
projections, and is also likely the best defensive catcher in the game. When
you combine those attributes you end up with an incredibly valuable player.
我不這麼認為。Yadier Molina已經靜悄悄的成為一位水準之上的球員。當平均的打擊
（根據THT的預測）加上優異的本壘後方守備，這就只能是一個非常有價值的球員。
Colby Rasmus had a very solid rookie season in 2009. Despite some troubles
with his usually high walk rate, he showed very good power and played
excellent defense. Furthermore, at just 23 years old, he has plenty of room
for improvement.
Colby Rasmus有一個非常實在的09年球季。雖然保送不像平常那麼多，但是他的砲管
和優異的守備還是讓人驚豔。再加上他今年才23歲，還有非常的大的空間可以成長。
Matt Holliday was just signed to a huge deal and looks to be one of the best
left fielders in baseball. Ryan Ludwick had a down, but still solid, year
in 2009, but was one of the best players in baseball in 2008.
大聯盟的最佳左外野手之一的Matt Holliday剛簽下肥約。Ludwick雖然在09年有個小低
潮，但請別忘了他08年的表現。
Brendan Ryan was outstanding with the leather last year, and despite an
pre-spring training injury, projects to be a capable hitter and an excellent
defender at a premium position.
Brendan Ryan拿著手套守備的表現（這裡我不太確定）可以用傑出來形容。
雖然在春訓前受傷，以他的守備位置（SS）而言，他還是一個不錯的打者和優秀的防守
者。
The Cardinals' new utiliy man, Felipe Lopez, had a .383 OBP last year and
signed for just over $1 million. Skip Schumaker has had over a .360 OBP in
each of the past three seasons, and showed a lot of improvement defensively
last year.
紅鳥還有只用1M就簽下.383上壘率的優替人Felipe Lopez和守備上大有進步而且連續三年
上壘率破.360的Skip Schumaker。
In short, the Cardinals look to have a very strong ensemble of position
players even once you get past Pujols, much better than it has been over the
past few seasons. That brings us to pitching...
總而言之，就算你跳過Pujols不算，紅鳥的打線還是非常的強大，而且比前幾年強大太
多了。所以看來問題應該不在打線上，這帶出了接下來的問題...
How does the rotation stack up for the Cardinals?
紅鳥的先發輪值？
Last year, the Cardinals' starting pitching was some of the best in baseball.
Their best three starters, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Joel Pineiro,
combined for 639.2 innings last year and a 2.80 ERA. And despite some
struggles from the back end of the rotation (ahem, Todd Wellemeyer), the
Cardinals rotation put up the fourth best ERA in the majors last year.
去年紅鳥的先發好得可以在棒球史上站有一席之地。Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter
和Joel Pineiro組成的三巨頭用2.80的ERA吃掉了639.2局。如果忽略一些掙扎的後段班
（嗯哼，對，就是Todd Wellemeyer）紅鳥的輪值在去年可以排第四。
This year is another story. Pineiro, who harnessed the power of the sinker
last year to great improvement, has moved on to the American League, and as
good as Wainwright and Carpenter are, both probably got a bit lucky last year
and figure to regress, and the latter is a significant injury risk. Kyle
Lohse was really bad last year and got injured for the first time in his
career - he doesn't figure to be much better than league average.
但今年又是個不同的故事了。Pineiro跑去了美聯，Wainwright和Carpenter看來不太可能
複製去年帶有一點點運氣成份的成績，Carpenter還有很大的受傷風險。Kyle Lohse
去年表現很差而且又在他的職業生涯中第一次受傷，所以實在不用太期待他有甚麼表現。
The Cardinals paid more than $7 million for Brad Penny, who despite seeing a
resurgence in his fastball velocity, has been one of the worst starters in
baseball over the past two seasons. For the fifth starter spot, the Cardinals
seem to be employing the "throw sh*t at a wall and see what sticks"
technique, fostering a competition between rookie Jaime Garcia, who was
injured most of last year and has had very little experience in the high
minors, and Rich Hill, who has had historically bad control problems over the
past couple of years and is somewhat of a medical miracle.
補強的部份，紅鳥花了7M找了Brad Penny，雖然他的球速好像有起色，但是他已經用
兩個球季證明他是個爛先發。在尋找第五號先發上，紅鳥應用了「丟屎在牆上，然後
看哪一坨會黏住」的技術，讓缺乏經驗而且受傷了大半季的Jaime Garcia和控球一直
有問題的醫學奇蹟Rich Hill來競爭這個位置。
Despite all of that, the Cardinals appear to have a solid rotation. According
to Oliver projections, here is how the rotation will likely perform next
season:
雖然聽起來很糟，但是紅鳥還是會有個實在的輪值，根據Oliver projections，本季的輪
值應該是這樣
Name Projected IP Projected ERA
Chris Carpenter 180 2.85
Adam Wainwright 200 3.64
Brad Penny 120 4.67
Kyle Lohse 200 4.51
Jaime Garcia 75 4.76
Rich Hill 97 4.90
Carpenter and Wainwright project to be studs once again, and some combination
of the other four should give the Cardinals solidly average performance.
Furthermore, there is definitely some upside with each of Penny, Lohse, Hill
and Garcia, given that the first three have each had success in the majors
before and Garcia is considered one of the Cardinals' best prospects. To sum
up, the Cardinals most likely won't enjoy such as good a showing from their
rotation as they did in 2009; however, with the two-headed ace of Carpenter
and Wainwright and a solid back end, their starting pitcher should not be a
liability for them next seasons.
Carpenter和Wainwright的組合看來還是非常風光，而其他人應該會有平均水準的演出。
而且Penny, Lohse, Hill and Garcia之中，應該會有人表現的比預期好。畢竟，
前三者都有成功站穩大聯盟的經驗，而Garcia是農場裡最被期待的農作物之一。概括而
言，紅鳥的輪值，不會像09年如此的成功，但是擁有雙王牌和厚實後段的紅鳥輪值將不
會在2010球季成為拖累球隊的負擔。
How 'bout the pen?
那牛棚呢？
While the bullpen for the Cardinals last year was very productive, putting up
the fifth best ERA in the majors, a lot of that was smoke and mirrors. Their
cumulative FIP was nearly .7 runs higher than their ERA and roughly in the
middle of the pack among the rest of the teams. Ryan Franklin was the biggest
impostor last year, somehow allowing just a 1.92 ERA despite a K:BB ratio
under 2 and average batted-ball rates. Furthermore, Franklin struggled
mightily in the last month of the season and the playoffs last year. Still,
he has quietly been one of the most effective relievers in baseball since
joining the Cardinals in 2007, and just signed a two-year extension. Like it
or not, he'll be the Cardinals' closer next year, and past history suggest he
should do a decent job.
雖然去年紅鳥的牛棚投出了全聯盟第五佳的ERA，但是這可能只是虛幻的運氣。紅鳥
牛棚團隊的FIP（Fielding Independent Pitching，衡量和守備無關的投球ERA），比他
們的團隊ERA高了.7，而且在所有的隊伍中只是中段班。其中Ryan Franklin尤其顯得宰制
力不足，雖然ERA是1.92，但他卻有奇差無比的K/BB（低於2）加上普通的batted-ball
rate.而且別忘了，Franklin上季末和季後賽都表現得十分掙扎。
雖然如此，Franklin還是紅鳥牛棚中最有效的後援投手之一，而且他才剛簽了兩年的延
長合約，所以不管你喜不喜歡，他都還會是closer，而且根據他以前的表現，他將會是
尚可的選擇。
Behind him is an assortment of "meh" pitchers: LOOGY's Trevor Miller and
Dennys Reyes, a guy with a 97 MPH fastball and not much else (Jason Motte),
and then a few interesting youngsters in Kyle McClellan, Mitchell Boggs and
Blake Hawksworth. As a whole, the pen projects to be decidedly boring, with
only Motte possessing any real strikeout capabilities, and not too effective.
Most importantly, they are lacking a clear bullpen ace who can shut down a
rally and consistently preserve one-run leads. To be honest, talking about
the Cardinals' bullpen depresses me a little bit, and I just have to keep
reminding myself that relievers simply aren't as important as the other
facets of a team.
在Franklin之後的還是一群差強人意的投手，一人左Trevor Miller和Dennys Reyes、除
了97MPH甚麼也沒有的Jason Motte、幾個有趣的年輕投手Kyle McClellan, Mitchell
Boggs and Blake Hawksworth。一言以蔽之，這是個無聊的牛棚，只有Jason Motte有
不太有效的三振能力。更重要的是，這裡面沒有任何一個人可以站出來，一夫當關的守住
一分差的領先。看到這裡，真是一個讓人沮喪的牛棚，我們只能提醒自己牛棚沒有球隊
的其他部份那麼重要來安慰自己了。
All in all, the Cardinals project to have a well-above average collection of
position players featuring two heavy hitters in the middle of the order in
Pujols and Holliday and a lot of depth around them. Their rotation looks to
be solidly above average, and even the pen is passable. They are projected to
be the best team in the NL Central for a reason, and with the bleak
situations of their divisional rivals, I expect that the Cardinals will have
an easy path to the playoffs. With the preview out of the way, I'd now like
to explore some of the more interesting questions regarding the 2010
Cardinals.
小結：紅鳥有水準之上的打線：兩門重砲Pujols和Holliday有許多有深度的槍和砲掩護
他們，加上中上的先發投手輪值加上食之無味的牛棚，看來紅鳥將會是國聯中區本季擁有
最佳陣型的球隊。考慮國聯中區並沒有什麼強力的對手，紅鳥將會輕輕鬆鬆的取得季後賽
門票。在這種[無趣的]情況下，我們應該要深究一些更有趣的問題。
How will Mark McGwire do as the hitting coach?
Mark McGwire可以當一個好的打擊教練嗎？
The Cardinals created quite a buzz this off season by announcing that Big Mac
would be their hitting coach for the 2010 season during the same time that he
formally admitted to taking steroids. And while the media was particularly
vicious at first, Tony La Russa and the rest of the Cardinals front office
did a good job of mitigating the situation. And while there are still some
questions about how McGwire's situation will affect the team in the long run,
the more interesting question in my opinion is how well he will do as a
hitting coach.
紅鳥在宣佈McGwire成為他們2010球季的打擊教練的同時造成了一股騷動，因為在此同時
McGwire正式承認他用過藥來增強表現。當時LaRussa成功的對嗜血的媒體做好了傷害控制
。當大家都還在關心McGwire會不會對紅鳥有長遠的不良影響時，我認為更有趣的是他到
底會不會是一個稱職的打擊教練。
Last year, the Cardinals were a frustrating team to watch offensively at
times. Despite having a lineup full of talented players, the general approach
to each at-bat featured by players such as Rasmus, Ankiel, Duncan and Ludwick
was miserable. According to FanGraphs' O-Swing, which measures the percentage
of pitches swung at on pitches outside of the strike zone, the Cardinals were
one of the hackiest teams in baseball last year. When you combine that with
the fact that the hitting coach was preaching "aggressiveness" to the hitters
last year, it's no surprise that the Cardinals wanted to bring in someone
else. McGwire, with his career 17.2 percent walk rate, looks like a good
candidate to improve the Cardinals' hitting philosophy. Although there is no
way of knowing how good a teacher McGwire will be, I have a feeling he'll do
fine. Next question!
去年，紅鳥的進攻真是讓人垂頭喪氣。雖然紅鳥不缺有天份的球員，像Rasmus, Ankiel,
Duncan and Ludwick，但是上述球員的打擊讓人可以用悲慘來形容。紅鳥團隊的O-Swing
，也就是追打壞球的比率非常的高。當你又發現09年的打擊教練奮力鼓吹「積極出棒」時
，解決問題的方法顯而易見：找新的打擊教練！生涯獲得17.2％保送的McGwire看來是個
傳授紅鳥球員們新打擊心法的好人選，雖然不知道他是不是個好老師，但是我想他應該
會做得不錯。下個問題！
Just how bad is the Cardinals farm system?
紅鳥的農場到底傷得多重？
Well according to Keith Law, they have the 29th best system in baseball. If
you are a Sickels kind of guy, they have... the 29th system in baseball. When
the Cardinals traded for Holliday and Mark DeRosa last year, they gave up a
lot of their best prospects, including Jess Todd, Chris Perez and Brett
Wallace. Considering they also graduated their best prospect, Colby Rasmus,
to a full-time big league job, it's no surprise that the system is in poor
shape right now.
根據Keith Law的排名，紅鳥農場名列第29。為了Holliday和Mark DeRosa，紅鳥的農場換
走了一大票頂級作物，包括Jess Todd, Chris Perez和Brett Wallace，加上Colby
Rasmus從農場升到了大聯盟，難怪紅鳥農場現在作物的狀況非常悽慘。
This is not the first time that this has happened though. During the 100-win
years of 2004 and 2005, the Cardinals consistently had one of the worst farm
systems in baseball. They traded away countless top prospects for win-now
pieces, and after their 2006 World Series victory, they were in dire shape as
an organization. However, Jeff Luhnow, the Cardinals current Vice President
of Player Procurement and the big guy in charge of draft operations, did a
fantastic job of fixing up the system. He was able to act quickly and with
solid drafts was able to build up the Cardinals' system to be solidly in the
middle of the pack by last year.
但是糟糕的農場已經不是初次發生了，在04和05年的百勝球季時紅鳥一直保有最差的農
場系統，他們換走了所有有價值的作物來追求眼前的勝利，在2006年的世界大賽奪冠後，
農場系統已經岌岌可危了。但是副總裁Jeff Luhnow，這位負責選秀和獵球員的總裁成功
的用果斷的行動和務實的選秀策略在去年之前重建了農場系統。
So while the system is in bad shape right now, I have confidence in Luhnow
and the Cardinals to build it back up. They have already taken a good first
step in that direction with a solid 2009 draft that netted them Shelby
Miller, a top 50 prospect according to Baseball America, and a very talented
Robert Stock. Furthermore, they had attempted to sign Wagner Mateo, a prime
talent in the Latin market, before the physical fell through. I know that
close is only good in horseshoes and hand grenades; however, the Cardinals'
willingness to spend money on top talent to improve their system is
auspicious for the system's health.
所以，雖然現在紅鳥的農場狀況很差，我相信Jeff Luhnow可以重建整個紅鳥的農場系
統。紅鳥已經邁出了成功的第一步：他們務實的09年選秀網羅了top50的新秀Shelby
Miller和很有天份的球員Robert Stock。而且紅鳥也努力的試圖簽下Wagner Mateo，
一位在受傷前非常有才能的拉丁裔球員。雖然大家都知道這些補強只是搔搔癢，並不能
解決紅鳥農場眼前的問題（原文的意思是不夠接近目標），但我相信紅鳥願意投注資金
來網羅潛力新秀的態度，對農場的影響將是十分正面的。
To sum up today's preview of the 2010 Cardinals I'll mention a few more
points of interest that I wasn't able to get to fully in this article:
除此之外，還有幾點關於紅鳥的議題未在前面討論的，將在後面補充。
Colby Rasmus' expected improvement
對Colby Rasmus進步的預測
As a guy who spends so much of his time dealing with numbers and data, Rasmus
is in a weird place for me. None of the projection systems think very highly
of him next year (Oliver thinks he'll be downright terrible); however, just
by watching him play, there is a ton of potential there, both offensively and
defensively. He's under team control for the next five years, and I have a
hunch he'll be one of the best assets in baseball.
對於一個整天接觸棒球數據的人來說，Rasmus處於一個奇怪的狀態。沒有任何的預測認為
他在2010年球季會有很好的表現（Oliver認為他馬上就會被打回原型）。但是，如果實際
觀看Rasmus的表現，將會發現他不論在打擊或守備上都有驚人的潛力。Rasmus將會繼續在
紅鳥的掌控下打五年球，直覺告訴我他將會是大聯盟中的一項最佳資產。
Pujols' contract situation
Pujols的合約
With the signing of Holliday, the Cardinals have sent a message that they are
ready to be a contending team year in and year out. That has always been
Pujols' first priority, and I really don't think he'll leave the Cardinals
even if they can't scratch up the dough that the Sox or Mets can. I have been
critical of the Holliday signing due to the shear amount of money involved;
however, if it helps the Cardinals to resign Pujols, I'd be greatly satisfied
with it.
紅鳥藉著簽下Holliday傳達出一項訊息：他們是一隻有奪冠競爭力和野心的球隊。這也是
Pujols在選擇球隊時最關心的一點。我相信就算紅鳥沒辦法出和大都會或紅襪同等級的薪
資，Pujols還是不會離開聖路易。當時紅鳥撒了大把的鈔票續簽Holliday時，我曾大力的
批評他們的作法，但是如果這有助於簽下Pujols，我將會對這價碼十分滿意。
How will the Cardinals advance on the analytical front
紅鳥的棒球數據分析技術會怎麼進步（我不太確定是這個意思嗎）
All signs point to the Cardinals having a very analytical front office. With
all of the potential new advances in technology this year (Hit f/x, Trackman,
as well as more comprehensive statistical database), I wonder how the
Cardinals will continue to gain a competitive advantage through analysis and
technology.
所有的跡象都指出紅鳥是個分析技術領先的團隊。我很好奇紅鳥在今年出現了許多新的
分析技巧和更完整資料的狀況下，要怎麼保持他們的競爭力。
第一次翻譯，有很多不通順和意思不明的地方還要請大家指教。這篇的作者看來比較主觀
，用了很多 I（我），所以我就照著原文的意思把他個人的主觀風格翻出來，不知道大家
覺得是好還是不好。
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