[討論] 2007 BRAA LeaderBoard (打者篇)
BRAA(batted run above average)是一個我覺得很棒的進攻統計數字
它可以很直觀地看出這位球員在進攻(得分)上的貢獻
而且簡潔地將大部分球場上所有發生的事情都加入計算之中
用每個個別球員加總所得到的結果可以直接近似團隊總得分
比許多迴歸公式或是 OPS 在評估球員對得分方面的貢獻都來的準確且方便
這個數字是怎麼計算的呢
假設在今天的得分環境下,得分期望值矩陣長這樣:
MenOn Number of Outs
FST 0 1 2
--- .482 .258 .096
x-- .853 .510 .211
-x- 1.095 .646 .293
xx- 1.494 .907 .423
--x 1.356 .940 .377
x-x 1.804 1.151 .470
-xx 2.169 1.418 .598
xxx 2.429 1.549 .745
那打者上場後每一個打席得到的結果所造成的 BRAA 是
(這個打席造成的得分數 + 這打席後的得分期望值) - 此打席前得分期望值
比方說無人出局無人在壘時,某打者上場打了一隻全壘打
則這個打席他的 BRAA 就是
(1 + 0.482) - 0.482 = 1
如果被三振 就是 (0 + 0.258) - 0.482 = -0.224
依此類推
FanGraphs (www.fangraphs.com)有整理每個打者整季的 BRAA
也有做排行
稍微在這邊列一些(全聯盟)排行
可以看看過去一年各打者的貢獻
在下個球季開始以前討論討論 XD
[其實應該要把 AL NL 分開處理]
2007 BRAA LeaderBoards (Hitters)
Top 10
Alex Rodriguez 82.87 NYY
Magglio Ordonez 68.39 DET
David Ortiz 65.85 BOS
Matt Holliday 57.09 COL
Vladmir Guerrero 53.93 LAA
Carlos Pena 53.91 TB
Todd Helton 53.05 COL
Chipper Jones 51.18 ATL
Prince Fielder 51.14 MIL
Miguel Cabrera 48.23 FLA
只有一隻球隊有兩個打者在前十名....:P
Bottom 10
Nick Punto -32.44 MIN
Dioner Navarro -29.44 TB
Tony Pena -28.80 KC
Omar Vizquel -28.40 SF
Miguel Olivo -28.14 FLA
Jose Lopez -25.00 SEA
Josh Barfield -24.70 CLE
Alexi Casilla -24.19 MIN
Adam Kennedy -23.92 STL
AJ Pierzynski -23.80 CWS
也有一隻球隊有兩個打者在後面十名...:p
By Positions
Catchers
Jorge Posasa 35.49 NYY
Victor Martinez 30.82 CLE
Russell Martin 26.95 LAD
AJ Pierzynski -23.80 CWS
Miguel Olivo -28.14 FLA
Dioner Navarro -29.44 TB
捕手是最後十名的主力成員
1st Base
Carlos Pena 53.91 TB
Todd Helton 53.05 COL
Prince Fielder 51.14 MIL
Robert Fick -14.16 WAS
Richie Sexson -16.21 SEA
Lyle Overbay -19.38 TOR
Fick 只打了 221 個打數就進到一壘手的最後三名了 XD
雖然 Helton 長打火力稍有下滑
但靠著驚人的不出局能力(0.434 OBP),和 Pena 旗鼓相當
2nd Base
Chase Utley 46.35 PHI
Placido Polanco 27.40 DET
BJ Upton 25.01 TB
Kelly Johnson 25.01 ATL
Alexi Casilla -24.19 MIN
Josh Barfield -24.70 CLE
Jose Lopez -25.00 SEA
Utley 在這裡自成一格
Upton 如果能續守二壘會更有價值 (?)
3rd Base
Alex Rodriguez 82.87 NYY
Chipper Jones 51.18 ATL
Miguel Cabrera 48.23 FLA
Alex Gordon -20.02 KC
Abraham Nunez -21.48 PHI
Nick Punto -32.44 MIN
A-Rod....wow
Chipper 打的那麼好但還是與他有 30 分差距
雙城在這個火力不錯的位置放上了一位全聯盟 BRAA 的最後一名 囧
加上二壘的 Casilla
雙城的二三壘組合和勇士的二三壘組合會是有趣的對照
Shortstop
Jimmy Rollins 36.32 PHI
Derek Jeter 30.94 NYY
Hanley Ramirez 30.45 FLA
Bobby Crosby -21.13 OAK
Omar Vizquel -28.40 SF
Tony Pena -28.80 KC
Jeter 和 Cano OPS 幾乎一樣
但隊長的不出局能力讓他在得分貢獻上比 Cano 多出 20 分
OutField
Magglio Ordonez 68.39 DET
Matt Holliday 57.09 COL
Vladmir Guerrero 53.93 LAA
Brad Hawpe 44.29 COL
Barry Bonds 41.89 SF
Adam Dunn 39.13 CIN
Pat Burrell 33.86 PHI
Raul Ibanez 32.11 SEA
Carlos Beltran 31.94 NYM
Juan Pierre -14.02 LAD
Jason Botts -14.50 TEX
Shannon Stewart -15.51 OAK
Jason Tyner -15.98 MIL
Jay Gibbons -16.07 BAL
Chris Burke -17.19 HOU
Alfredo Amezaga -18.30 FLA
Reed Johnson -18.39 TOR
Craig Monroe -21.52 DET/CHC
外野因為 FanGraphs 沒分位置
所以取九個人
Rox 兩個人加起來就破百
Beltran 是前九唯一個 CF
(所以 BJ Upton 拉到中外也應該也很殺)
最後幾名則可以看到鼎鼎大名的 Juan Pierre
下回會貼投手的
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