[外電] MVP爭奪戰已經結束

看板LeBronJames作者Paraguay (巴拉圭)時間10年前 (2014/04/11 22:08)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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※ [本文轉錄自 NBA 看板 #1JHRhF24 ] 作者: kart (=\) 站內: NBA 標題: [外絮] MVP爭奪戰已經結束時間: Thu Apr 10 05:25:33 2014 原文 http://ppt.cc/yMHR Defense matters. 防守很重要滴 If there's one takeaway from the ranking of ESPN's new real plus-minus metric, it's this: Defense is a huge deal. The defensive side of the floor, which represents half the game, has been underserved in the basketball conversation, especially when it comes to talking about the individual. 如果要從昨天出版的真實正負值(RPM) 裡找出一項最重要的資訊，那就是防守佔的比重非常之大。畢竟在籃球世界裡，防守應當佔了一半的空間。然而現今咱們提到籃球往往都忽略了它，尤其在討論個別球員時。 But now, RPM is giving credit where credit is due. 但是現在RPM給了防守應當有的評價！ The MVP race illustrates this dynamic perfectly. It has been long assumed as an article of faith that LeBron James is a better defender than Kevin Durant, and therefore the Oklahoma City star would have to make up for his defensive deficiencies on the other end. But as RPM shows us, that hasn't necessarily been the case this season. 防守的重要性也在歷屆MVP討論中被提出。事實上大部份的人都認為Lebron比Durant來說是更好的防守者，因此Durant要得獎，首先必須要在防守端上跟上Lebron才行。然後這季而言，事實似乎不是我們所想像的。 You often hear about a player having a down shooting year or a down rebounding year. Well, James is having a down defensive year. And that, more than anything, is why he'll likely lose the MVP battle this season. 用籃球術語來講，Lebron今年有個糟糕的防守年。而這一點，就是他為什麼會在MVP爭奪戰中落敗的主因。 Most folks have probably handed the MVP trophy to Durant already, but interestingly enough, James currently leads the league by the slimmest of margins in WAR, which is the estimated number of team wins attributable to a player based on RPM. Simply put, WAR is RPM that takes into account minutes played. James currently paces the league with 17.07 WAR, while Durant, who has played more minutes than James, nips at his heels at 16.73. This is insanely close and should go down to the wire. Considering this is an estimated number, we can see this as a virtual tie. 當然大部份的人可能已經把MVP給了Durant，但是有趣的是， LBJ還是在WAR的數據上領先群雄。詳表見下。（WAR: Wins Above Replacement，基本上是一種進階數據，用來預測該球員被取代後對球隊勝負影響的差距。白話點來說，LBJ的WAR是17，就是Lebron被取代後，熱火會少17勝。） WAR的推算是根據RPM而來，簡單來說，WAR就是RPM的變種，把上場時間算入。 Lebron和Durant的WAR比第三名高了一截，兩人的差距並不大，考量到這只是個預測值，我們可以說兩人平手。 As the WAR leaderboard demonstrates, this is a two-man race, with James and Durant separated from the pack by a margin of three wins. A 17 WAR figure means that James' impact on the floor has been worth 17 wins above the replacement player. What's a replacement player? It's a statistical benchmark for freely available talent that you can pick up off waivers or the D-League. Basically, the guy at the end of the bench. 如同下表，今年的MVP就是Lebron和Durant兩者相爭，其他人都是看戲的。WAR 17代表Lebron被替代球員取代後球隊勝場的差距。替代球員是怎麼算的？用統計來推論任何市場上所有可以選的球員，包含D-league在內。基本上，你可以說就是個守開特例的那位。 WAR Leaderboard Player WAR LeBron James 17.07 Kevin Durant 16.73 Stephen Curry 13.68 Chris Paul 13.10 Kevin Love 13.05 Dirk Nowitzki 12.41 DeAndre Jordan 11.58 Andre Iguodala 11.47 Blake Griffin 11.02 LaMarcus Aldridge 10.7 From an RPM perspective, the MVP race is close. But if James gave an above-average output on defense this season, this probably wouldn't be a contest. 昨天我們得知如果用RPM來看個別球員的貢獻，MVP的競爭是很接近的。但是如果Lebron在防守端能多用點力，他可以把差距拉得更大。 We have seen hints of James' lackluster defense in the box score, but RPM paints a fuller picture, an assessment that many haven't been willing to see. RPM informs us that the reigning MVP has been a below-average defender this season once we account for teammates, opponents, coaches and other factors. Yes, below average. To be more precise, he's estimated to be 0.21 points per 100 possessions worse than the average defender in 2013-14, which is about a full point worse than Durant. 我們可以勉強從分數盒中看出Lebron今年在防守端的表現普普。 RPM則讓我們更清楚明白地看到這個大部份的人都不願意見到的事實：這位MVP的衛冕者今年在防守端的表現比聯盟均值還差。是的，低於平均。更準確點說，他的防守在100次球權中，比平均球員還低0.21分，比Durant差了一分整。 How can that be? In a vacuum, James is stronger, more versatile and probably more heady than Durant on defense. Most would agree on those notions. But the effort hasn't always been there. And the numbers are picking it up. 這...不科學啊！畢竟Lebron更強壯，更多功能，也比Durant 在防守端上更聰明。這些形容大部份的人都會認同。但是差別在努力不夠。而數據顯示了這一點。 James likes to tout his rare ability to guard all five positions on the floor. He can do that. But what he's not mentioning is that this rare ability hasn't consistently translated into winning results. Lebron喜歡吹捧自己能守五個位置的罕見能力。他的確可以。問題是他並沒有穩定的防守表現轉換為贏球。 RPM captures that on the whole, but let's slice this down into pieces. According to exclusive data provided to ESPN.com by Vantage Sports, an analytics company that has clients around the league, James has registered surprisingly low numbers on the defensive end. James' KIF (keep in front percentage) this season is one of them. James has kept only 40 percent of drive attempts in front of him, which is lower than the league median of 50 percent. Not the markings of a lockdown on-ball defender. Vantage Sports tracking also tells us that James has been beaten back on transition defense 2.8 times per 100 chances, which is far more than the league average of 0.5 times per 100 chances. RPM這個數據準確地抓住了這個死角，讓我們更細微的來看。我們ESPN利用Vantage Sports數據分析公司提供的資料顯示， Lebron今年在防守數據上的呈現是非常糟糕的。 Lebron的被過率就是其一。被過率計算的是每次防守時，有多少%被其防守的對方球員切過的比例，聯盟均值以50%來計算，Lebron有60% 的比例被防守球員切過，也就是說他只能擋住40%的切入。這並不是一個大鎖該有的表現。而全場防守上，Lebron在100次對方全場進攻的球權中，有2.8次來不及回防，遠高於聯盟平均的0.5次。 The box score isn't favorable to James, either. He's blocking shots about a third as often as he did last season. His block percentage of 0.7 is the same as that of Kyrie Irving, Monta Ellis and Mario Chalmers. James' steal rate is also down for the second season in a row, down to 2.2 percent. Again, James has the ability to block shots, cause turnovers and wrap up his assignment no matter what position he plays. But the effort hasn't been there. And when effort doesn't match ability, that's where the coasting talk comes in. 就連傳統分數盒對Lebron也是不利的。他的蓋火鍋次數是上季的1/3左右。他的蓋火鍋率（0.7%)跟KI, Ellis和前十控一樣。他的抄截率已經連續兩年下降，目前是2.2%。是的，Lebron的確有敲火鍋和抄截的能力，不論防守哪個位置。但是他的努力明顯不到位。當你的表現和你的能力不符時，養身之說自然不肵而走。 And in the grand scheme of things, James is probably smart to preserve his energy on that end of the floor for the playoffs. He has carried the Heat for much of the season without his co-pilot Dwyane Wade, who has missed 26 games this season dealing with an assortment of leg issues. Believe it or not, James has the majority of his minutes (59 percent) without Wade on the floor this season. Last season, James starred without Wade for only a third of his minutes. This is a new, more demanding set of circumstances for James in Miami. 當然從大處著手，我們猜想Lebron只是為了保留季後賽體力所為。別忘了今年他大部份的時間都是在Wade不在的時候打球， Wade目前錯失了26場比賽。事實上，Lebron今年有59%的上場時間是Wade不在的。上一個球季，Lebron和Wade不同時上場的時間只有 20%左右。這對Lebron而言是一個新的挑戰。 Look, the Heat have not played great defense this season. They basically took off the entire month of January when they gave up the sixth-most points to their opponent on a per-possession basis. The scoreboard tells us that the Heat have been 3.0 points per 100 possessions better with James off the floor than on the floor, according to NBA.com data. He's performed better recently, but RPM confirms that he has a hand in that drop off. 熱火今年的確在防守端表現不佳。他們在一月的時候基本上像是放大假一樣，讓對手能得聯盟第六多的分數。如果從這上面來看，當Lebron不在場上時，熱火的防守效率反而多了三分之多。他最近在這方面表現得比較好，但是RPM的分析也證實了此點。 With a more consistent effort from James, they probably don't sit three games behind the Thunder in the loss column. And team record goes a long way in the MVP discussion. 如果Lebron在防守端有盡力，那他們現在不會比雷霆多輸三場球。而眾所皆知球隊表現對MVP的產生有決定性的影響。 Remember, RPM and WAR are enlightening metrics because they don't solely depend on the confines of the box score -- where defense is a blind spot -- to appraise a player's contributions. And from a WAR lens, the MVP race is far from over, even with James' defensive shortcomings that have hurt the Heat's standing. But James can't hide on that end anymore. With a little more dedication on that end, James would likely be on his way to another MVP. 記住，RPM和WAR這類數據的優點是他們不受分數盒所控制。而分數盒沒辦法顯示出防守的重量。從WAR的角度來看，MVP之爭依然沒有結束即使Lebron防守上的表現是如此糟糕。但是WAR和RPM讓Lebron在這方面的表現無所遁形。如果Lebron能多在防守端盡點力，或許他現在可以邁向第五座MVP。＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝基本上算是不意外 @@ 只是多一個量化的數據來顯示Lebron今年在防守端打得很爛 .... 囧 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 72.34.128.250 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NBA/M.1397078735.A.084.html

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